Mike's Race Analysis October 20, 2007
Race #1
1st - #2 Sporty Jones | 2nd - #5 Candy King | 3rd - #1 Lord Kaiser
COMMENTARY : The #2 SPORTY JONES is down in class after a disappointing effort as the 2/5 favourite in a soft maiden allowance heat; he might be able to get the lead in this spot and that could be the key to success for him. The #5 CANDY KING is on his game right now but unfortunately finds a field without much early pace in it so he'll need some luck to get the winner's cheque. The #1 LORD KAISER improved a lot in his latest flashing far more speed than he did in his first three starts this year; he has the rail and could be a big factor on the head end.
Race #2
1st - #3 Badgett's Star | 2nd - #1 Sindi's Success | 3rd - #4 Sultry Eyes
COMMENTARY : The #3 BADGETT'S STAR ran well in her comeback race but simply ran into a filly that ran her career best that day; this dash looks to have come up easier and with a race under her belt she should be tough to catch. The #1 SINDI'S SUCCESS is getting down to a level where she should win a race but she'll have to deal with the speedy #3 BADGETT 'S STAR although if that one isn't at her best then she's the next in line for me. The #4 SULTRY EYES lost a little of her speed and didn't get into a decent position last time which cost her any chance in that pace-less event; she's coming back sooner and has a work since her last race so we should see a better performance from her.
Race #3
1st - #3 Superior Straits | 2nd - #1 J D's Carson Copy | 3rd - #2 Atchelitz Lad
COMMENTARY : The #3 SUPERIOR STRAITS chased the pace out in the three path throughout much of the race last time and was very game to finish as well as he did; he's better drawn for his stalking style this time and should be tough to beat. The #1 J D'S CARSON COPY has actually been very good in his three distance tries this year and with him finally winning one of them he could be a force this afternoon. The #2 ATCHELITZ LAD made up good ground to get the third spot at this same level and distance two weeks back and if the pace scenario gets a little heated then he'll be right there again.
Race #4
1st - #1 Ruthwell | 2nd - #4 Lil Victor G | 3rd - #6 Cielo's Lad
COMMENTARY : The #1 RUTHWELL is a tough one to try and figure out when he seems to be hopelessly overmatched he comes up with a huge effort and when he's in an easy spot and should win he comes up dull. I'll gamble that he'll put forth one of his top efforts and if he does he'll win the money. The #4 LIL VICTOR G was chasing the tough Alpha Danjur on the head end last time which cost him late as he was passed by a couple of 'closers' and had to settle for fourth place; the pace scenario looks a lot kinder today so he should be a lot tougher this trip. The #6 CIELO'S LAD took this distance quite nicely in his last which was against three year olds, he'll have to face some seasoned older runners in here but if he continues to improve he could be tough to beat again.
Race #5
1st - #4 Rip Cord | 2nd - #1 Trouble Shooter | 3rd - #2 Top Tech
COMMENTARY : The #4 RIP CORD comfortably beat a similar crew at this level two weeks back and another nice draw he should win right back. The #1 TROUBLE SHOOTER is taking a big dip in class and must be respected in this spot. The #2 TOP TECH wasn't disgraced in his return to Hastings finishing a close third and with him getting a better post today he has the potential to cause an upset.
Race #6
1st - #3 Rainbow Dash | 2nd - #4 Lights Begone | 3rd - #6 Tartufo
COMMENTARY : The #3 RAINBOW DASH is back in at the level where he was very competitive and with him looking like the only speed he should be tough to catch. The #4 LIGHT BEGONE is down in class after a decent effort with $25,000 maidens; he was a little green early but ran on well late and with him facing easier opponents he could get a bigger piece of the purse today. The #6 TARTUFO has finished in mid-pack in all four of his starts but with the blinkers coming off this afternoon perhaps things will change for the better for him.
Race #7
1st - #5 Dramatic Charmer | 2nd - #3 End Result | 3rd - #6 Land Of Silver
COMMENTARY : This is one of the tougher races on the card with many of these fillies looking quite comparable in ability; I'm leaning towards the #5 DRAMATIC CHARMER who was a distant second sprinting at this tag last time out but I think this longer trip (only time at this distance was with older mares for a lot more money) is her best so I like her to run well today. The #3 END RESULT was a victim of a slow pace on a speed favouring racetrack and also struck some trouble at the eighth-pole or she would've likely been third; this race has come up easier and she has a good shot to get her fourth win of the year. The #6 LAND OF SILVER ran well in her latest but will need a livelier pace in order to win the big prize.
Race #8
1st - #1 French Roast | 2nd - #6 Alabama Rain | 3rd - #4 Tango Mango
COMMENTARY : The #1 FRENCH ROAST hasn't raced in over three months but has been training steadily in the mornings; he's the best horse in the race and as long as he doesn't get into a pace duel early then I think he'll get the victory as the favourite. The #6 ALABAMA RAIN is facing far easier competition today and with pace duel looking likely he has a good shot of getting his first win here at Hastings since 2005. The #4 TANGO MANGO had every shot to win his last sprint but got nailed near the wire; he's a better sprinter but as game as he is he'll undoubtedly give a huge effort at this longer trip today so don't sell him short.
Race #9
1st - #1 Turbo Tommy | 2nd - #2 Dr. J.C. | 3rd - #5 Six Point O
COMMENTARY : I 'm kind of getting tired of picking the #1 TURBO TOMMY every other week but I'll try it one more time as he takes the #2 DR. J.C. for what seems like the hundredth time, they look like the probable EXACTOR and I'll say that today is finally the day for one of them. The #5 SIX POINT O has been freshened up and has a few sharp works for his return so if the top two LOSE AGAIN it'll be him that will be the likely winner.
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