Mike's Race Analysis October 14, 2007
Race #1
1st - #3 Commodore Craig | 2nd - #4 Agro | 3rd - #2 Above The Clouds
COMMENTARY : The #3 COMMODORE CRAIG appears to have found a much easier $15,000 claimer this afternoon and it looks like he’ll either get the lead or be sitting in a perfect spot either trip should lead to a big performance today. The #4 AGRO is down in class after a couple of tries with $25,000 distance types; he’ll need some luck with the pace scenario but if the fractions are contested this guy will be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #2 ABOVE THE CLOUDS won his last race at this level but was also a vet scratch when sore on parade; he’s come back with an excellent work so he deserves respect as well.
Race #2
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #5 Remarkably Free | 3rd - #3 Loveinamist
COMMENTARY : The #1a DANCING MELODY just missed in her latest at this same level and needs only to repeat that performance to get the money this time. The #5 REMARKABLY FREE has some decent works and has lured Dave Wilson off of another rival to pilot this filly; the pedigree is strong and she hails from a top outfit and could be ‘live’ in her debut. The #3 LOVEINAMIST hasn’t shown much in her first two starts but sometimes the slightest tweak can change things dramatically and I’ll gamble that the blinker adjustment will bring a far better run from her.
Race #3
1st - #3 Krazy Koffee | 2nd - #1 Alarico | 3rd - #5 Affiniti One
COMMENTARY : The #3 KRAZY KOFFEE was all over the course last time and still managed to dead-heat for the runner-up spot; he’s better drawn for his style today and as long as he gets a decent trip I think he’ll win. The #1 ALARICO was chased pretty hard on the pace in his last and if he can get a break early then he too has a great shot of winning. The #5 AFFINITI ONE has turned some good efforts so far this year and if the top two get into a heated battle for the lead then he’s the next logical horse.
Race #4
1st - #6 Saratoga Avenue | 2nd - #4 Money X Change | 3rd - #5 Show Biz Kids
COMMENTARY : The #6 SARATOGA AVENUE has only run once and that was in a very strong heat in which he was a no-threat fifth; this is a much easier spot and I’ll gamble that he breaks better and wins the money. The #4 MONEY X CHANGE is the logical pick off of his close second place finish last week at this same trip but this will be his fourth race in 28 days which is a concern. The #5 SHOW BIZ KIDS is from an excellent family but looks to have been prepping to go farther; still like him better than others.
Race #5
1st - #6 Half A Hero | 2nd - #3 Northern Skipper | 3rd - #2 Sharp Chevron
COMMENTARY : The #5 HALF A HERO gave a good effort in his comeback race and with this dash filled with early speed his late kick could get him the victory. The #3 NORTHERN SKIPPER showed a disliking for the sloppy conditions last time and obviously didn’t run his best race; he deserves another chance. The #2 SHARP CHEVRON should get a perfect stalking trip in behind a contested pace which is why I think he’ll be in the exotics (Triactor, Superfecta) at big odds.
Race #6
1st - #6 Vye Me To The Moon | 2nd - #7 Just Callme Blonde | 3rd - #5 Grace's Star
COMMENTARY : The #6 VYE ME TO THE MOON is in an easier spot this afternoon and with no real other speed in the lineup she has a great shot of leading throughout. The #7 JUST CALLME BLONDE ran into a sharp filly going long last time and was a pace casualty; she’s back in sprinting (which have been her better races of late) and add blinkers so she could get back on track today. The #5 GRACE’S STAR closed up strongly in the stretch to be second in a slow heat and looks to be the best of the rest.
Race #7
1st - #6 Jade Beret | 2nd - #5 Organist | 3rd - #1 Roque River
COMMENTARY : The #6 JADE BERET has been banging heads with tougher company and performing reasonably well so he should be a big factor in this easier dash. The #5 ORGANIST dropped down out of the allowance ranks for his last race and finished up a distant third; it was only his second race since July 1st and with him coming back in two weeks I think we’ll see a better result today. The #1 ROQUE RIVER adds blinkers and drops into this restricted non-two $20,000 category and he too should improve in this spot.
Race #8
1st - #2 Sir Gallovic | 2nd - #8 True Metropolitan | 3rd - #3 Spaghetti Mouse
COMMENTARY : The #2 SIR GALLOVIC had a horrific trip in the Derby but at the weights I think he’ll get his first graded stakes victory; he’s bred to be a stayer and judging by the way he was striding out at the end of both victories this longer trip definitely won’t be a problem. The pace scenario should be honest with the #1 Newton John, #5 Ookashada and #8 True Metropolitan all wanting to race near the lead and if he can get the trip in behind them and get to the outside heading down the backstretch this time then with the big weight break from the reigning champ he could pull off the minor upset. The #8 TRUE METROPOLITAN is an amazing runner that can pretty much run any distance on any type of track and make things look very easy; this will be his toughest test here at Hastings in some time as he’ll be asked to tote 129 pounds going 11 furlongs and even though he’s the best horse in the race he’s giving up 13 pounds to a very good horse like Sir Gallovic and that might be too much. The #3 SPAGHETTI MOUSE reportedly bled in his last race finishing fifth and was given some time off ; it’s really not the way one wants to come into a big race against the best horses on the grounds but he’s still very nice horse that loves this longer trip and should be on the board.
Race #9
1st - #8 Jackson County | 2nd - #9 Shankill Road | 3rd - #2 Lets Jet
COMMENTARY : The #8 JACKSON COUNTY battled on the pace in his last and ended up a clear second four ahead of the third horse; he should be fast enough to get the lead with these and should win. The #9 SHANKILL ROAD disappointed as the heavy favourite in his last although he did get into some trouble at the eighth-pole which cost him a better placing; he’ll need to flash better speed if he’s going to best my top pick. The #2 LETS JET was a solid runner-up in his Hastings debut although the time was quite slow.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT HASTINGS !!!