Mike's Race Analysis October 13, 2007
Race #1
1st - #4 W W Turbo | 2nd - #6 Mr. Ichiban | 3rd - #1 Arkhill
COMMENTARY : The #4 W W TURBO finished full of energy in his three and a half furlong victory and I think that this longer trip will bring out an even better performance; this dash isn’t overly tough and if he can avoid a pace duel and sit comfortably in behind the speed then I think he’ll get the win. The #6 MR. ICHIBAN found the allowance company a little too tough that he faced last time as he made a nice move on the backstretch but became a little noodle-legged in the late going; this is an easier allowance test and he looks like he’ll get a nice setup in front of him. The #1 ARKHILL looked very sharp in his debut and if he can shake loose early he could be a big factor.
Race #2
1st - #1 Tacky | 2nd - #4 Sunrise Serenade | 3rd - #2 Howe Sound
COMMENTARY : The #1 TACKY seemed to have his share of troubles with pricier company at Emerald Downs but he returns to Hastings where he has a decent record and with him showing up a reduced tag he should be tough to beat. The #4 SUNRISE SERENADE hooked into a tough one last time and had to settle for second and I’m worried that may happen again today with the #1 TACKY resurfacing in Vancouver but if my top pick isn’t at his best then this guy will win the money. The #2 HOWE SOUND will be a pace threat again today but he really had his shot to win last time but tired late and ended up a distant third.
Race #3
1st - #4 Monashee | 2nd - #2 Lady Raj | 3rd - #3 Slewpast
COMMENTARY : The #4 MONASHEE at equal weights looks unstoppable and the only battle will be for the runner-up spot and I’ll give that to the #2 LADY RAJ who actually ran very well in the $51,000 Delta Colleen which should set her up for another good run today. The #3 SLEWPAST has had to play catch-up after missing all of the summer and considering it was her first distance race of the year she’s likely to improve; she was the runner-up in this same race last year.
Race #4
1st - #6 Puerto Montt | 2nd - #1 Northern Pilot | 3rd - #4 Pacific Storm Cat
COMMENTARY : The #6 PUERTO MONTT might be the fastest of the group away from the gate and the way speed has been so dominant of late that’ll definitely give him the edge; he was claimed for $40,000 and resurfaces for $15,000 this afternoon so beware. The #1 NORTHERN PILOT is making his first start for a tag and is the obvious choice of the local horses; he’ll have to deal the Troy Taylor shipper but he has home-course advantage and shouldn’t any worse than second today. The #4 PACIFIC STORM CAT ran his best race of the season to date when dropped down to this level three weeks back but with this particular dash coming up quite a bit tougher I’ve left him in the third spot.
Race #5
1st - #3 Launch Our Star | 2nd - #4 P S Kin | 3rd - #1 Lookonthebriteside
COMMENTARY : The #3 LAUNCH OUR STAR narrowly won her last start which was her first in over two months; she’s down in class for the hot Jordan/Gutierrez combo and should be the controlling speed. The #4 P S KIN could get a contested pace set in front of her and I think she’s the best ’closer’ in the group so I’ll give her a chance today. The #1 LOOKONTHEBRITESIDE took a big class drop last time out and got a comfortable win; she’ll need to be better to beat this crew but I still like her run in the money.
Race #6
1st - #1 Royal Tiara | 2nd - #8 Highjinks | 3rd - #6 Kokeeno
COMMENTARY : The #1 ROYAL TIARA just missed with better last time and with a pace duel looking likely she should be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #8 HIGHJINKS outran her huge odds last time finishing a close third and considering the time was pretty quick for that level I think she has a shot in this slightly tougher spot. The #6 KOKEENO wasn’t as sharp away from the gate in her latest so she was forced to race from farther back early and I thought she recovered well to get third money.
Race #7
1st - #8 Kinda Special | 2nd - #4 Dancinfor Diamonds | 3rd - #7 Tough Torque
COMMENTARY : The #8 KINDA SPECIAL showed a huge improvement in her last race as she flashed speed and finished the race with good energy; this is a tougher assignment for her but this dash ahs come up light for speed and she could lead them all the way again today. The #4 DANCINFOR DIAMONDS won her last at this same level and if he can someone to chase my top pick then he’s likely to win another. The #7 TOUGH TORQUE is in a much easier spot and gets a hot rider so beware of him at a nice price because I think he’s capable of beating this kind.
Race #8
1st - #8 If I'm Spared | 2nd - #9 Final Kat | 3rd - #1 Lucky Cahill
COMMENTARY : The #8 IF I’M SPARED got hung out four deep through the early going which was enough to ruin his day and he ended finishing well back; he’s in at half the price today and it doesn’t appear that here’s really anyone to chase him early so he should get the victory. The #9 FINAL KAT could put some pressure of my top pick but from an outside post he’s likely to take the seat just off the leaders which will give a big chance of staying in the top three. The #1 LUCKY CAHILL raced a little flat last time and needs to regain his form of two starts back and if he can find that form then he’ll be a big threat in the late going.
Race #9
1st - #7 Dream Queen | 2nd - #5 Stolen Mist | 3rd - #4 Rockahula Miss
COMMENTARY : The #7 DREAM QUEEN is taking a big drop in class after a disappointing run at the maiden $15,000 level; she’ll get leading rider and a pretty soft group to run with. The #5 STOLEN MIST was second in her only start in Seattle this year and has been prepping steadily for her Hastings debut; looks better than most in here. The #4 ROCKAHULA MISS has struggling a bit of late but faces easier so I’ll give her the third spot.
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