Mike's Race Analysis May 20, 2007
Race #1
1st - #1 Camberley | 2nd - #4 Ebonys Silver Star | 3rd - #3 Hold On Sugar
COMMENTARY : The #1 CAMBERLEY has been lightly raced throughout her career but always seems to run well when she does show to play (like April Foolish). She's been working very well for Bev Miles (assistant to Peter Stephen) who had her first victory last week so with this dash coming up relatively soft I think she can win it. The #4 EBONYS SILVER STAR had a tough trip with better and with a few mares in here looking to want the lead her off-the-pace running style might get her a nice piece of the purse. The #3 HOLD ON SUGAR is another mare that doesn't race very often but seems them count so don't be surprised if she wins this afternoon. GOOD COMPETITIVE RACE WITH NO STANDOUT.
Race #2
1st - #4 Mudchute | 2nd - #3 Candy King | 3rd - #6 P S Commander
COMMENTARY : The #4 MUDCHUTE looks to be a standout as he was narrowly beaten in his '07 debut in a very quick time, he's up in class slightly but this race has come up easier than his last so if he repeats his last effort he definitely gets the money this time. The #3 CANDY KING was much better on Lasix in his final start and has been training well for his return. The #6 P S COMMANDER has the speed to get up and challenge the #4 MUDCHUTE early so he should have good position and if he runs to his works then he'll be in the TRIACTA.
Race #3
1st - #1 Annikat | 2nd - #5 Amber Morn | 3rd - #6 Red's Miss
COMMENTARY : The #1 ANNIKAT tracked a fast pace and got out late to get the runner-up spot and with her down in class facing a pretty soft field she should get the job done today. The #5 AMBER MORN is taking a big class drop so look for her to be more of a factor. TOUGH CALL !! The #6 RED'S MISS had a wide trip and still got the money against a field of $8,000 maidens, she definitely has some upside to her and could improve enough to be a threat.
Race #4
1st - #8 Mints Boy | 2nd - #1 Six Point O | 3rd - #6 Just A Tribute
COMMENTARY : There isn't a lot of speed in this heat and I'll gamble that the #8 MINTS BOY flashes the kind of gate speed he did in his last which will get him the lead in here, he's coming out of a strong race so I like his chances. The #1 SIX POINT O finished just ahead of my top pick but did have the luxury of sitting back and watching a pace duel and just nailed the #8 MINTS BOY for third late. He has the rail and is very 'live' with this group. The #6 JUST A TRIBUTE has worked quite stylishly since his debut with straight maidens, he's down into maiden claiming so he must be respected.
Race #5
1st - #7 Fraserview | 2nd - #2 El Che | 3rd - #9 Three Express
COMMENTARY : The #7 FRASERVIEW just finished beating a similar field so with this race really not coming up any tougher if he can string two performances together then he'll be getting his picture taken again today. The #2 EL CHE took advantage a contested pace and rallied to defeat non-two $8,000 types, he moves into this non-three category but it doesn't appear that he'll get the same pace scenario although I still like him to run into the top three. The #9 THREE EXPRESS was very competitive in tougher non-three's last year and if he can overcome to outside draw then he has a shot as well.
Race #6
1st - #7 April Foolish | 2nd - #2 Great Form | 3rd - #3 La Pistola
COMMENTARY : The #7 APRIL FOOLISH scored a comfortable win two weeks ago at this same tag and with her connections opting to jam her right back for the $25,000 she's has to be the play. I picked the #2 GREAT FORM to beat 'APRIL' last time and really never got a chance as she was wiped out going into the first turn so I have to give her the best shot to knock of the favourite. The #3 LA PISTOLA was closing up quickly on the rail to be second which was impressive considering the pace was slow and the favoured mare APRIL FOOLISH had the lead to herself so with a better post today she could make things interesting.
Race #7
1st - #4 Suva | 2nd - #1 Restless Lady | 3rd - #2 Chelsey's Image
COMMENTARY : The #4 SUVA has blossomed into an athletic long striding machine (looks more like a colt) that motors by anything in her path, she easily bested her rivals in the Sales Stake on opening day sprinting (which really isn't her thing) breezed beautifully with Pedro up in 1:12.20 and it really doesn't look like we have a filly her at Hastings that can challenge her which is why her connections are strongly thinking of Woodbine for her next start if all goes well this afternoon. The #1 RESTLESS LADY is a perfect 3 for 3 in blinkers but really gets tested for class today, she's going very well and looks to be the only filly that could pull off the upset. The #2 CHELSEY'S IMAGE was a distant third in the Sales Stake and will be reunited with her winning pilot but obviously needs to be much better to be a factor for the win.
Race #8
1st - #4 Humberstone | 2nd - #6 Quagmire | 3rd - #3 Jumper
COMMENTARY : The #4 HUMBERSTONE looks to the best speed in a race that didn't come up all that tough so I think he can take them wire-to-wire. The #6 QUAGMIRE wasn't disgraced in his Hastings debut as he finished fourth while enduring a three wide trip, he appears to be a better distance runner but with no long races going yet the connections opt to give him another chance sprinting. The #3 JUMPER is way down in price after his sixth consecutive no-threat performance, he seems to do things well in the morning but just can't reproduce that talent in a race lately, maybe the easier company will bring out a better showing this afternoon.
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