Mike's Race Analysis June 30, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Miss Soul | 2nd - #3 Sunny Remark | 3rd - #2 Regal Roo
COMMENTARY : The #5 MISS SOUL has been in a couple of tough spots in her two races so far this year; she ran with the boys first time out and actually ran very well which earned her a start for $25,000 against the fillies but those proved to be a little too tough for her but today she's in much easier and I think is definitely the one to beat. The #3 SUNNY REMARK had a rough trip in her latest and still fought on well to be earn second money; she's the main threat to my top pick. The #2 REGAL ROO has had many chances to win one which is why I didn't take her on top but I do think she'll be in the top three.
Race #2
1st - #5 Deputy Allstar | 2nd - #2 Dr. J.C. | 3rd - #6 Magna Force
COMMENTARY : The #5 DEPUTY ALLSTAR makes his first start for hot barn and is dropping down a couple of levels for today's race; his speed makes him a huge threat and with him likely to get the lead all to himself I have to side with him today. The #2 DR. J.C. was flying late and wasn't beaten by much at all but had to settle for fourth money; he's in cheaper but is unlucky to find no speed in this dash so I had to leave him in the second spot. The #6 MAGNA FORCE was in with winners in an effort to go long but that experiment failed so he's in at a reduced price (as are many in here) today and appears to be the best of the rest.
Race #3
1st - #1 Princess Alex | 2nd - #3 Avalanche Bay | 3rd - #5 Alittlebitextra
COMMENTARY : The #1 PRINCESS ALEX ran very well considering it was just her first start of the season so for her to be a close fourth I thought was very encouraging; there isn't much speed (probably let the #6 AUTUMN MIST have the lead) in here so I expect her to get a nice trip sitting close to the slow early fractions and she'll be tough with that strong race under her belt. The #3 AVALANCHE BAY took advantage of a contested pace and a track that favoured 'closers' but it was her first positive experience in some time and could build on that today. The #5 ALITTLEBITEXTRA had no visible excuses in her latest and finished up a close third; she likes this class and distance so expect her to be in the mix again this afternoon.
Race #4
1st - #5 Alpha Danjur | 2nd - #3 Meritocratic | 3rd - #8 Scots Pine
COMMENTARY : The #5 ALPHA DANJUR paid the price for trying for position from an outside draw and got hung out four deep the entire trip so with him getting a better post today I have to follow him back. The #3 MERITOCRATIC missed the break with pricier and will appreciate the easier competition that is served up this afternoon; he has a race in him and should be more of a force this time. The #8 SCOTS PINE could be dangerous if left alone on the head end although he has tired with easy leads in his last couple with much better. PACE FACTOR !!!
Race #5
1st - #5 Hey Target | 2nd - #8 Sideline | 3rd - #9 Fire Boss
COMMENTARY : The #5 HEY TARGET should get a great pace to run at today as he drops down into this conditional $8,000 event; he had to have needed his first start being off for nearly two years so I'll give him another shot today. The #8 SIDELINE exits a fast heat (1:17.80) that was won by Wings Of An Eagle the last time he was here at Hastings and if he can off of the early pace then I think he has a chance to be in the top three. The #9 FIRE BOSS is definitely one that'll be coming from off-the-pace and with the likelihood of a quick and contested tempo his chances improve greatly.
Race #6
1st - #10 Coco Diablo | 2nd - #5 Actsensual | 3rd - #11 Tappen To Time
COMMENTARY : The #10 COCO DIABLO just missed in her latest and should be tough again today as long as the outside post doesn't hurt her too much. The #5 ACTSENSUAL finished just in behind my top pick and if the early fractions are hot then this gal will be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #11 TAPPEN TO TIME closed out '06 with a couple of sharp wins with restricted $8,000 company and if she can work out a decent trip from her tricky post then she has a shot as well.
Race #7
1st - #5 Anziyan Flyer | 2nd - #2 Joyride | 3rd - #4 Colondelivery
COMMENTARY : The #5 ANZIYAN FLYER is likely to get the early lead and even though he's back up class after a loss I still like his chances; if he fires his best race he wins. The #2 JOYRIDE was a no-threat fifth a couple of weeks ago and will try slightly easier competition and should get better early position which is something he needs for a victory and he will also need his A-game to get the money. The #4 COLONDELIVERY is also taking a drop in class and is coming into this one off of an excellent effort; he had a perfect trip last time and if he gets a similar trip then he's going to be tough to beat.
Race #8
1st - #5 Mighty Cahill | 2nd - #1 Shacane | 3rd - #7 Victim Of Love
COMMENTARY : The #5 MIGHTY CAHILL was an unlucky loser finishing a close third in a tougher allowance race two weeks ago and will just need to repeat that effort to win the cash today. The #1 SHACANE is a classy veteran that is solid going long but has run some excellent sprints in the past so if the pace scenario is to his liking then I think he'll be right there. The #7 VICTIM OF LOVE is an interesting newcomer that brings some amazing credentials winning half of his 22 lifetime starts; he has blazing speed and comes in dead fit from California so he must be respected as well. HIS SPEED MAKES HIM VERY DANGEROUS !!!
Race #9
1st - #8 P S I B Good | 2nd - #10 Philly Flynn | 3rd - #7 Nettleship
COMMENTARY : The #8 P S I B GOOD was disgraced in his last race at the $15,000 maiden level ending up sixth beaten less than seven lengths so with him down at this bottom $5,000 tag and not facing a very tough crew I like him to win today. The #10 PHILLY FLYNN has turned in back-to-back runner-up efforts at this same price and if he can overcome the poor draw then he'll be a prime threat in the late going. The #7 NETTLESHIP was a little disappointing in his last as he made the drop down to this level and really didn't fire; I'll gamble that Gutierrez can get him a little more interested and be a part of the TRIACTA.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON OF THOROUGHBRED RACING !!!