Mike's Race Analysis July 8, 2007
Race #1
1st - #1 Windy Breeze | 2nd - #6 Lasting Lake | 3rd - #2 Cherokee Freedom
COMMENTARY : The #1 WINDY BREEZE just finished beating a similar field in her last so with the pace scenario looking good for her again today she's likely to repeat. The #6 LASTING LAKE chased my top pick around the track last time and was very game the entire way; she's drawn outside her again so she'll need to be just a bit better today if she's going to turn the tables on the #1WINDY BREEZE. The #2 CHEROKEE FREEDOM was closing well in the stretch and if she can get the top two to get into a pace duel then she has a shot to win as well.
Race #2
1st - #3 Spences Bridge | 2nd - #1 Arizona Drifter | 3rd - #5 Greasewood Flats
COMMENTARY : The #3 SPENCES BRIDGE was very game in his return winning in a fast time but had to settle for a dead-heat; this race hasn't come up overly tough and I like him to win. the #1 ARIZONA DRIFTER found the open $25,000 claimers a little too tough but gets an easier assignment today and should be a major factor in this dash. The #5 GREASEWOOD FLATS is going up in price but is actually facing easier company in this restricted non-three for $20,000; there could be a very quick and contested pace in here and that would play out beautifully for his 'off-the-pace' style.
Race #3
1st - #3 Olympic Dawn | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #2 You'rejustlikeme
COMMENTARY : The #3 OLYMPIC DAWN has had to battle hard on the pace in her first two starts this year and continues to fight gamely right down to the finish; she's due for a better trip on the pace and I think today she'll sit just off of the #1 LAUNCH OUR STAR and I like her chances of winning if the race sets up that way. The #1 LAUNCH OUR STAR struggled in her first start with winners; she's down slightly in class and her speed must be respected. The #2 YOU'REJUSTLIKEME will go without blinkers today after being pretty sharp and running on a fast pace in her latest; she'll probably let the speed go and sit the trip just in behind which could prove to be a winning move.
Race #4
1st - #6 Celt | 2nd - #2 Above The Clouds | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #6 CELT should find himself on a loose lead early so I expect him get the money as he's getting down to a level where he should win. The #2 ABOVE THE CLOUDS made an early move on the backstretch and it cost him as he was very tired in the lane and ended up third; he has better spacing in between races and leading rider so we should see some good things from him today. The #1a DALTON GREEN just missed at this level in an excellent time.
Race #5
1st - #10 Mayne's Finale | 2nd - # 8 Angelina B | 3rd - # 6 Marquetry Rose
COMMENTARY : The #10 MAYNE'S FINALE had a rough trip in her first race with winners and I thought she did well to rescue third money; she has an outside post which may be a blessing as I think she can gallop up on the outside and get the lead without too much urging which would make her tough to beat. The #8 ANGELINA B is down in class after three unsuccessful tries with tougher mares earlier this season so on the class drop she deserves lots of respect. The #6 MARQUETRY ROSE defeated some nice mares in Princeton and actually wasn't disgraced the last time she was here in Vancouver so I'll put her in for third.
Race #6
1st - #6 Just A Tribute | 2nd - #3 Cool Vic | 3rd - #7 Chilling Kat
COMMENTARY : The #6 JUST A TRIBUTE has been very sharp of late and just simply ran into a bear last time or he would've racked up another victory; he's bred to handle this longer trip and with this race coming up far easier than his latest I think he gets the job done. The #3 COOL VIC just finished winning at this same level and distance and with a similar post he should be very tough again this afternoon. The #7 CHILLING KAT was a little too far back behind a slow pace in his first mile and a sixteenth try so I thought he did well to get third money; he has a lot of upside and is one that could improve today.
Race #7
1st - #4 T.J. Hennessy | 2nd - #6 Tango Mango | 3rd - #1 Nineleventurbo
COMMENTARY : The #4 T.J. HENNESSY struck some trouble early in the race which cost him position which is extremely important in these competitive $25,000 claimers; this race has come up light for early speed and I'll gamble that he goes go wire-to-wire. The #6 TANGO MANGO got a dream run through on the inside winning his latest at big odds; he won't be a big price today but could repeat if he stays close to what should be a slow early tempo. The #1 NINELEVENTURBO was shuffled back early losing valuable position and he never comfortable after the early trouble; he gets a fast track and has 'sneaky good' speed so don't be surprised if you this veteran up near the pace and when he gets in contention to win he usually does. VALUE PLAY !!
Race #8
1st - #2 Ookashada | 2nd - #7 Californiatruegrit | 3rd - #4 Stephanson
COMMENTARY : The #2 OOKASHADA is back in town after a third place run in the $125,000 Alberta Derby which was run over an very sloppy track; he's back on his home turf and looks to be the controlling speed today so he'll be tough to catch in his return to Hastings. The #7 CALIFORNIATRUEGRIT is an interesting one with a lot of potential and I'm willing to give him a shot today; he missed the break in his first distance try and didn't run all that bad after the tardy beginning and considering he'd only had one sprint run into him I thought he did very well; this guy has talent and could surprise some people this afternoon. The #4 STEPHANSON continues to turn in solid efforts and now has career earnings over the $80,000 mark; he's a versatile type that doesn't do anything overly flashy he just simply shows up and does what he's asked and usually he's winning or finishing very close. NICE SOLID CONSISTENT RUNNER !!!
Race #9
1st - #4 Lion Bill | 2nd - #5 Market Share | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #4 LION BILL chased a very fast pace in his '07 debut and hung in well to be third and his effort is enhanced by the fact that the winner that day (And All That Jazz) came back to an optional $50,000 claimer on Friday; strong wire-to-wire candidate !! The #5 MARKET SHARE looked good in winning but made a miscue at the top of the stretch and was disqualified, that race was a mile and a sixteenth and he's shortening up to a sprint today but he still should be a major factor. Both the #1 NORTHERN VOW and the #1a NORTHERN PILOT have been training well for their '07 debuts and put them in the TRIACTA.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!
