Mike's Race Analysis July 6, 2007
Race #1
1st - #7 With Vision | 2nd - #3 Count Your Dreams | 3rd - #4 Prosperito
COMMENTARY : The #7 WITH VISION got hung out three wide throughout in her last against tougher maidens which contributed to her sixth place finish; she's in with easier and should get a nice trip sitting just off of the speedy #4 PROSPERITO. The #3 COUNT YOUR DREAMS is also exiting maiden allowance company in favour of this $25,000 spot and if she can get a decent pace set in front of her and a repeat her career debut then she could get all the money today. The #4 PROSPERITO chased a fast pace in her latest and it cost her in the stretch; her speed makes her dangerous and one to be respected in this spot.
Race #2
1st - #1 Dance Odyssey | 2nd - #3 Running Apache | 3rd - #4 Pat Of Gold
COMMENTARY : The #1 DANCE ODYSSEY disappointed as the favourite in the $106,000 Sadie Diamond Futurity finishing a tired fifth but obviously something went wrong that day as she was given the rest of the year off; she's been training very well for return and I'll gamble that she can off of the big layoff. The #3 RUNNING APACHE will race on Lasix for the first time after two losses in Calgary; she's back in sprinting which is what she seems to do best and is definitely the one to beat. The #4 PAT OF GOLD has been off for awhile after her game maiden score but still figures to be close at the end. MAJOR PLAYER !!
Race #3
1st - #4 I'mnottalkintoyou | 2nd - #5 Santino | 3rd - #3 Sidaway
COMMENTARY : The #4 I'MTALKINTOYOU has drawn a great spot to debut and even though his work tab has been inconsistent it still appears that he has some run to him. The #5 SANTINO is back in sprinting after an unsuccessful try going long with better company; his sprints earlier this year put him in the top three. The #3 SIDAWAY improved a lot when reduced to this claiming price so with a good draw and a positive race under him he could be ready to win today.
Race #4
1st - #5 Captain T W Bly | 2nd - #6 Tyger Gold | 3rd - #4 Ghost Pirate
COMMENTARY : The #5 CAPTAIN T W BLY is running against pretty much the same field that he beat three weeks ago and I don't see any reason to go against him. The #6 TYGER GOLD is the one stranger that could pull out a victory; he's had some tough luck in his last two trips and is definitely due for a good one and if he gets a favourable position early he has the ability to beat my top pick. The #4 GHOST PIRATE wasn't disgraced in his first try going long and if he can get a break on the lead then he has a shot.
Race #5
1st - #3 Marysville | 2nd - #5 Winter Chill | 3rd - #1 Big Deal Lucille
COMMENTARY : The #3 MARYSVILLE is bred to love this trip and I hope she does because it's really difficult to play her off of her three sprint runs this year; this is a very soft heat that she might be able to handle at this extended distance. The #5 WINTER CHILL has been much better this season and brings the best sprint form into this race but we'll see if she can go long ?? The #1 BIG DEAL LUCILLE is down in class after a better-than-looked effort last time and has a nice post today which was enough for me to put her in the top three.
Race #6
1st - #5 Big Shiny | 2nd - #4 Kingsvale | 3rd - #1 Organist
COMMENTARY : The #5 BIG SHINY was ultra-game in his first try at this level finishing a close second; he's improving and is definitely the horse to beat. The #4 KINGSVALE shook off some rust in his last and should run better second time out and with the likelihood of a quick and contested pace his off-the-pace style should have him right there at the end. The #1 ORGANIST is another that has turned solid efforts this spring and actually his form mirrors the #5 BIG SHINY; he's been very comfortable racing on the outside so it'll be interesting to see how he fares on the inside.
Race #7
1st - #1 French Roast | 2nd - #3 Answer The Call | 3rd - #5 Chile's Quest
COMMENTARY : The #1 FRENCH ROAST cruised to his second consecutive win three weeks ago wiring a similar field at this same distance; there doesn't appear to be any speed to go with him so he looks like a solid single. The #3 ANSWER THE CALL has finished in behind the #1 FRENCH ROAST both times they've met and unless this race sets up differently then he's likely to finish behind him again; he's beaten the most of the rest and I like him to complete the EXACTA. The #5 CHILE'S QUEST makes his first start in a new barn and maybe a fresh start will be what this guy needs because the talent is certainly there to win at this level.
Race #8
1st - #3 Regal Lass | 2nd - #10 Stormy By Nature | 3rd - #5 Fancy One
COMMENTARY : The #3 REGAL LASS raced on a slow pace on 'dead rail' which is why he wasn't a factor, he's better than that race indicates and I'll give him another shot in this very soft maiden event. The #10 STORMY BY NATURE has shown much yet in his career but at least those races were for $15,000 and then $8,000; the post is an obvious concern but I still like him over many others in here. The #5 FANCY ONE has earned three pay cheques in her three races so far this year which is more than you can say for any of her rivals; her 27 Beyer-rating is amazingly the best 'last-race' number in the group so she's going to be popular at the windows.
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