Mike's Race Analysis July 29, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Affiniti One | 2nd - #3 Blue Sky Holiday | 3rd - #4 Copenhagen
COMMENTARY : The #5 AFFINITI ONE has a strong pedigree (half brother to both La Belle Fleur and Suva) and a decent worktab for his debut. The #3 BLUE SKY HOLIDAY was purchased at the Ocala summer sale last August for $25,000 and sports a quick move on July 14 (35.80) so she could be 'live' at first asking. The #4 COPENHAGEN is bred to run a mile and a quarter on the turf but does have some nice morning trials; good connections.
Race #2
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #2 Steady Pace | 3rd - #6 Swinging Fox
COMMENTARY : Both the #1 MR. ICHIBAN and the #1a CHIANTI DANCER have had a positive race under them which is a big plus as they make their first starts around two turns; this dash hasn't come up overly tough and I think they have a good shot of running first and second. The #2 STEADY PACE ran okay in her first try at six panels, she had a comfortable lead but really didn't finish all that well; her speed makes her dangerous but she'll need to be better if she's going to win today. The #6 SWINGING FOX exits a quick three and a half furlong heat and should find this group a lot easier.
Race #3
1st - #5 Sir Luther | 2nd - #1 Dr. J.C. | 3rd - #2 Turbo Tommy
COMMENTARY : The #5 SIR LUTHER could be the speed of the race and as long as the quick turnaround (back in 7 days) doesn't hurt him then I think he'll be tough to catch. The #1 DR. J.C. crossed the finish line first in his latest but was disqualified; a repeat performance gets him the money. The #2 TURBO TOMMY was forced wide the entire trip and still managed to finish third (he was disqualified as well - rare double DQ) and if he can get a better trip today he could be a major player. SMALL BUT COMPETITIVE DASH !!!
Race #4
1st - #4 Not Just Dreaming | 2nd - #1 Winter Chill | 3rd - #6 Faustine
COMMENTARY : The #4 NOT JUST DREAMING has been running with tougher company and is badly in need of a confidence boost ; she should get the money against this group. The #1 WINTER CHILL was allowed to set a very comfortable tempo in her first try going long and she cruised to an easy win; things are tougher today but she's lightly raced and is on the improve so she looks like the one that could upset my top pick. The #6 FAUSTINE had to race in the three path the entire trip and did well to hold second money; she gets a break in the weights and just needs a better trip and she'll win at this level very soon.
Race #5
1st - #4 Autumn Mist | 2nd - #7 Backseat Becka | 3rd - #2 Angelina B
COMMENTARY : The #4 AUTUMN MIST had the luxury of getting an uncontested lead while setting slow fractions is her latest and went on to an easy score; the pace scenario looks favourable for her again today so a repeat victory is likely. The #7 BACKSEAT BECKA is a better mare racing on the outside (she was pinned down on the rail last time) so with the #7 post I like her chances of improving and threatening for the win. The #2 ANGELINA B got a much needed easier assignment in her last and she took full advantage winning off by more than three lengths; she's back in open company today but is packing a lot more confidence with her this time. STRONG TRIACTA THREAT !!
Race #6
1st - #1 Rx Registrar | 2nd - #5 Sly Striker | 3rd - #2 For Jake's Sake
COMMENTARY : The #1 RX REGISTRAR will appreciate the restricted $20,000 company after a couple of dull tries with tough $25,000 claimers; there appears to be a bit of speed in this dash and I look for him to rally from off-the-pace and get the dough. The #5 SLY STRIKER is a better horse than most of these and if he can regain any of his form of last year then he'll be tough in this spot. The #2 FOR JAKE'S SAKE has two good works after his disappointing try with open company at the $15,000 level; he's up in price but this is a much easier spot and with him getting back on a fast track he could be a big factor.
Race #7
1st - #6 Coeur Joie | 2nd - #3 Celt | 3rd - #5 Earl's Diamond
COMMENTARY : The #6 COEUR JOIE is a better horse going long but with all the speed in this one and him dropping down one peg in class I think he'll make a big move and win the money. The #3 CELT just finished beating $15,000 types in his customary wire-to-wire style and if left alone early I think he can still win at this $25,000 price. The #5 EARL'S DIAMOND looked good in winning his comeback race and he's had five weeks to recover so another effort like that could get him close to the winner's circle.
Race #8
1st - #5 Tyra | 2nd - #1 Pingita | 3rd - #4 Selena's Opinion
COMMENTARY : The #5 TYRA just finished beating similar fillies on Canada Day so I don't see any reason to go against her. The #1 PINGITA was just in behind her that day and looks like the logical one to play if one is trying to beat the #5 TYRA today. The #4 SELENA'S OPINION hasn't been a factor in any of her three races although she does have a couple of no-threat thirds to show for all of her work; she'll go without blinkers and maybe this is the change that she needs for a better showing.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!