Mike's Race Analysis July 21, 2007
Race #1
1st - #1 Bullseye Bill | 2nd - #5 Justifiably | 3rd - #3 Leo's County Kat
COMMENTARY : The #1 BULLSEYE BILL just missed at this same level last time and with the rail he'll probably get another nice trip in behind the speed which is all he should need to get the win this time. The #5 JUSTIFIABLY was three wide throughout and only lost by a length; if he gets a better trip he'll be tough to beat. The #3 LEO'S COUNTY KAT showed a little more interest in his latest and could be turning things around.
Race #2
1st - #4 Land Of Silver | 2nd - #9 Prosperito | 3rd - #5 Wanna Be Foxy
COMMENTARY : The #4 LAND OF SILVER was compromised by a slow pace last time when checked in a no-threat fourth but today she looks to get a very lively and contested front end battle so I'll gamble on her and she'll be a better price as well. The #9 PROSPERITO is taking a drop down in price after a disappointing run as the 2/5 favourite; she's drawn on the outside but has the speed to get into a good position and she'll need it with all of the speed inside of her. CAPABLE BUT THE RACE APPEARS TO SET UP POORLY FOR HER STYLE !! The #5 WANNA BE FOXY ran well last time and her off-the-pace running style should get a big chunk of the purse today; definite threat.
Race #3
1st - #3 Beautiful Breeze | 2nd - #4 Cahill Casey | 3rd - #8 Deadly Zone
COMMENTARY : The #3 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE has worked very nicely for her return after a couple of unplaced efforts; there isn't a lot of speed in here and I think she can get the lead which will give her a big edge at a nice price. The #4 CAHILL CASEY has been her own worst enemy as she's spotted the field at eight lengths at the start in both of her races and yet still managed to almost win her last; she's been freshened up and has worked quickly so she's very 'live' in this spot as well. The #8 DEADLY ZONE has burned a fair amount of money this year and after her perfect rail trip last time to get second I have to take pass on her in the WIN column but I'll leave her in the TRIACTA.
Race #4
1st - #7 Cherokee Freedom | 2nd - #4 P S Kin | 3rd - #1 Anywaythewindblows
COMMENTARY : The #7 CHEROKEE FREEDOM is down at a level where she'll be tough to fend off following her better-than-looked third place effort behind a slow pace at the $20,000 tag. The #4 P S KIN has been grinding out a good living in these conditional races and with her returning to a sprint today I like her chances of being in the top three. The #1 ANYWAYTHEWINDBLOWS was reeled in by the streaking Rock It Rita last time but with no real speed to challenge her early she has a great shot of sneaking away on the 'closers'. DEFINITE PACE THREAT !!
Race #5
1st - #4 Ruthwell | 2nd - #7 Trouble Shooter | 3rd - #3 Torquemada
COMMENTARY : The #4 RUTHWELL shook off a little rust with a sprint run at the $20,000 tag but down here for $8,000 and stretching out to his best distance he'll be all business today. The #7 TROUBLE SHOOTER ran a lot better in his latest but just simply was too closer to a fast pace and it cost him late in the race as he tired to finish third; if the pace scenario is a bit kinder to him then he has a good shot of beating my top pick. The #3 TORQUEMADA took advantage of a fast pace and rallied to get the runner-up spot last time out but I don't see the same sort of pace today which is why I've left him in the third spot.
Race #6
1st - #11 Brass Bard | 2nd - #6 Sunrise Serenade | 3rd - #9 Cusack
COMMENTARY : The #11 BRASS BARD is in a much better spot today (#1 Pacific Customs Brokers Marathon Series) after tackling the best older horses on the grounds in the $100,000 Lieutenant Governors on Canada Day. He's actually fared very well that day but I'm sure he'll be happy to see $8,000 Starter Allowance types in the starting gate beside him rather than Spaghetti Mouse. The #6 SUNRISE SERENADE hasn't won a race since the 2005 season but has had numerous good efforts in these Starter Allowance events and I like his chances of hitting the top three this afternoon. The #9 CUSACK was protected in his first two starts this year sprinting for $25,000 but is now down at a level where he's very 'live' and there appears to be enough speed in the lineup to aid his late kick.
Race #7
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #7 Shacane | 3rd - #2 Timeless Passion
COMMENTARY : The #1A FRENCH ROAST looks to be the one that'll get the lead all to himself and even though he's up significantly in class I still think he'll be very tough to catch as he's been winning his races with relative ease so I think he'll be up to this stiffer test and it certainly won't hurt if the #1 ACT OF GOD runs and solidifies a very strong duo. The #7 SHACANE had a four wide final half mile in his return to the races which contributed to his fourth place showing; he's stretching out to a better distance for him and I think he'll be a major factor if the pace quickens early. The #2 TIMELESS PASSION took advantage of a fast pace on Canada Day and rallied to get the runner-up spot; he's a nice horse but does need pace help in order to win and with the price likely being quite small he's definitely one to try and beat.
Race #8
1st - #5 Superior Straits | 2nd - #6 Western Roller | 3rd - #4 Max Day
COMMENTARY : The #5 SUPERIOR STRAITS was unlucky not to have won his latest as he was traveling well down on the inside but was shut off going into the final turn and I was very impressed with the horse re-rallied to get the PLACE spot; as long as he gets clear sailing he should win for fun. The #6 WESTERN ROLLER had an encouraging debut finishing fourth in an extremely fast heat (1:17.40) and if he got enough conditioning out of that race to run long then he'll be tough as well. The #6 MAX DAY was stopped at a couple of different points on the backstretch costing him third money for sure and maybe more; he's had decent work since his last race and has a favourable post for his tracking style so I expect him in the top three.
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