Mike's Race Analysis July 2, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Alpine Lass | 2nd - #7 Saratoga Avenue | 3rd - #8 Freequartersmine
COMMENTARY : The #6 ALPINE LASS just missed in her debut in a quick time and a repeat effort should get her the money this trip. The #7 SARATOGA AVENUE has an excellent pedigree and some decent morning trials for a barn that has been going very with its youngsters; probably very 'live' !! The #8 FREEQUARTERSMINE doesn't have the strong pedigree like some others but definitely has the best work tab and a perfect post for this race.
Race #2
1st - #1 Sophisticated Star | 2nd - #2 Vyking Venture | 3rd - #4 Amber Morn
COMMENTARY : The speedy #1 SOPHISTICATED STAR has the rail and a much easier assignment today and she looks like a strong wire-to-wire threat. The #2 VYKING VENTURE has been unlucky not to have won a race by now as she's had to settle for second on all three occasions this year; should get a great trip for her first start off the claim. The #4 AMBER MORN won her latest with slightly better although that race was six weeks ago; she's obviously very 'live' in this spot but the value won't be there which is why I tried to beat her today.
Race #3
1st - #7 Cinnamon Brown | 2nd - #5 Anywaythewindblows | 3rd - #2 Paradise Cruiser
COMMENTARY : The #7 CINNAMON BROWN raced in between horses throughout most of the race last time and I thought ran well considering the uncomfortable trip; she'll remove blinkers for a race that doesn't feature much early pace so I think she'll get a good shot at winning racing on or near a slow pace. The #5 ANYWAYTHEWINDBLOWS cruised to an easy score over non-two $8,000 fillies when allowed to dictate a slow early tempo; she's in with tougher but could get the same favourable pace scenario which will make her tough in this dash. The #2 PARADISE CRUISER had been working extremely well for her '07 debut so the connections decided to give her a try for $20,000 but she found those fillies a little too tough; she's in a much better spot today and if she can stay close to the pace she has a chance to win.
Race #4
1st - #1 K.D. Day | 2nd - #4 Peacebethejourney | 3rd - #5 Camberley
COMMENTARY : The #1 K.D. DAY is back in sprinting after an unsuccessful try going long; she's drawn the rail and she should be tough to catch in her first sprint racing on Lasix. The #4 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY has been perfect this year winning all three of her starts but this is her toughest assignment to date. The #5 CAMBERLEY was just nipped for second money in her latest and if the top two get into a heated duel then she has an excellent shot as she appears to be the best 'closer' in the lineup.
Race #5
1st - #3 Noble Shogun | 2nd - #9 Newton John | 3rd - #5 Cagey Fox
COMMENTARY : The #3 NOBLE SHOGUN has been solid in his two sprint runs against open company and gets an easier test today in this conditional $8,000 event; he won at this distance last year which is enough for me to pick him in this very competitive race. The #9 NEWTON JOHN is bred to love this trip but will need a bit of luck from his tricky outside draw; he's been sharp all season and should be in the money again today. The #5 CAGEY FOX is a better horse at this longer trip as he showed in his victory over slightly easier company three weeks back; he gets leading rider and should be a major threat.
Race #6
1st - #4 C.L.'s Tiger | 2nd - #6 Montana To Rice | 3rd - #8 Max Day
COMMENTARY : The #4 C.L.'S TIGER turned in a good effort in his first attempt at this distance just missing by a half-length and a repeat of that race makes him the one to beat. The #6 MONTANA TO RICE was very sharp away from the gate in his first race with blinkers but he'll have to be kinder to relax if he's going to win at this longer trip; leading rider stay with this one HMMMMM !!! The #8 MAX DAY was impeded (moved up to second via disqualification) at the far turn or would've been closer at the end, it was encouraging improvement for him and with a little more improvement he has a shot to win as well.
Race #7
1st - #2 Goldrush Victory | 2nd - #8 Complicit Swiss | 3rd - #7 Proud Son
COMMENTARY : The #2 GOLDRUSH VICTORY was finally rated in behind horses and final result was much better with him winning in a very quick time; I think he can handle this tougher test and I'll think he'll repeat. The #8 COMPLICIT SWISS had his winning streak snapped at three as the #4 WESTERN ADMIRAL snuck through on the rail to beat him; I like the post for him as he should get to gallop up from the outside and get the lead far easier which will make him double-tough again today. The #7 PROUD SON hasn't been as effective as usual of late but perhaps the easier company will make a difference.
Race #8
1st - #4 Regal Pusher | 2nd - #5 Lady Raj | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #4 REGAL PUSHER was a little too sharp last time as she raced on a lively pace and it cost her late; there's more speed in here so look for her to settle in behind and she seems to be a better mare when she's coming from off the pace sprinting. The #5 LADY RAJ is a newcomer that has been racing reasonably well in New York; she obviously wants more ground but with a lively pace being likely I like her to get into the EXACTA. The #1 Entry of #1 BADGETTS STAR and #1A VIRTUOUS LADY both have speed so careful rating early is the key their success.
Race #9
1st - #6 Wings Of An Eagle | 2nd - #1 Proficiency | 3rd - #7 Arkansas Bankroll
COMMENTARY : The #6 WINGS OF AN EAGLE just missed in his last at this same level and with the threat of a pace duel today he's going to be very tough to fend off if he repeats either of his last two races. The #1 PROFICIENCY took a shot with some tough open $15,000 claimers and failed miserably so he's returned to the conditional company that he was so successful against last fall; he'll need his best. The #7 ARKANSAS BANKROLL was beaten in photo last time in this same condition but this dash has come up considerably tougher today so he'll need some luck to win it.
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