Mike's Race Analysis July 15, 2007
Race #1
1st - #2 Just Callme Blonde | 2nd - #5 Faustine | 3rd - #4 Sauce Girl
COMMENTARY : The #2 JUST CALLME BLONDE has had back-to-back runner-up efforts at this same level and distance and with this race coming up far easier than the first two she should find the winner's circle today. The #5 FAUSTINE ran her best race of the season in her latest so she's obviously coming around and with her getting back to her best distance she looks like the main threat to my top pick. The #4 SAUCE GIRL won her last over non-two mares and should take to this longer trip; lack of pace in here hurts her though.
Race #2
1st - #4 Against the Sky | 2nd - #3 Backseat Becka | 3rd - #5 Autumn Mist
COMMENTARY : I was really impressed with the performance of the #4 AGAINST THE SKY last time out as she was always being ridden with a ton of confidence and cruised by the speed to get the win; she shortens up to a sprint today but the way she ran she's going to be tough at any distance. The #3 BACKSEAT BECKA gets a good break drawing inside of the #5 AUTUMN MIST after finishing just behind her in her first start of the year; she could control the tempo today and if she's allowed too easy of a lead she'll be tough to catch. The #5 AUTUMN MIST has been solid in both of her sprints at this level and will undoubtedly be a major force in this dash again this afternoon.
Race #3
1st - #6 Great Prince | 2nd - #4 Cagey Fox | 3rd - #1 Sharp Chevron
COMMENTARY : The #6 GREAT PRINCE chased a pretty quick pace on a track that was very slow and then found another gear when it counted and drew off to an easy victory; he's up in class slightly but this race hasn't come up very tough so I think he'll repeat. The #4 CAGEY FOX ran reasonably well last time but he should've with all the pace that was on in that race; he looks like the best of the balance. The #1 SHARP CHEVRON battled gamely in his first try going long this season and just lost a photo for third to the #4 CAGEY FOX; if he can somehow get control of the pace and slow things down then he could surprise some people.
Race #4
1st - #3 Too Much Drama | 2nd - #2 Diplomatic Honor | 3rd - #1 Mullumbimby
COMMENTARY : The #3 TOO MUCH DRAMA looked awesome in breaking his maiden at first asking after breaking a couple of lengths behind the field he quickly gained the early lead and never looked back; this dash really hasn't come up too tough for him and I think he'll remain undefeated. The #2 DIPLOMATIC HONOR battled gamely on the pace with tougher company to finish a close fifth; he'll add blinkers and if he can get a break on the lead he could stay there at this level. The #1 MULLUMBIMBY ran a little better with the blinkers last time (not too sure if it was the blinker change or the company change) he should get an a contested pace to run at and he looks like the best 'closer' in the lineup.
Race #5
1st - #3 Complicit Swiss | 2nd - #7 Looking After Biz | 3rd - #6 Agro
COMMENTARY : The #3 COMPLICIT SWISS turned a 'wow' performance in his latest stopping the clock in 1:16.80 and that's going to get the money in any mid-level claiming event; he's up one peg in class but I don't think there's anyone that will really stretch him out early so he'll be tough to catch again today. The #7 LOOKING AFTER BIZ is back down to the level where he just missed to a sharp 'Alferrari'; he's a very consistent sort that's reliable to play in the EXACTA or TRIACTA. The #6 AGRO was unlucky not to win two starts back as he was forced three wide early then five wide on the final bend; he'll need some luck with the pace scenario to win today but I still think he's better than most in here.
Race #6
1st - #1 Call Me Tomorrow | 2nd - #5 Laurel's Gold | 3rd - #7 Remarkable Miss
COMMENTARY : The #1 CALL ME TOMORROW looked like a two-turn type when I saw him in the paddock and I was quite impressed with the athletic ability that he showed going that short trip back in late May; he appears to have trained beautifully up to this race and looks to be the one to beat. The #5 LAUREL'S GOLD was in some good company in his two races going three and a half furlongs and he performed very well on both occasions; his final prep was a good one and he'll get Lasix for the first time as well. The #7 REMARKABLE MISS is a filly tackling the boys which is sometimes difficult although it happens quite often at this time of year; she's the lone one to have prepped strictly to run six and a half furlongs and these are the ones that win sometimes not the ones that have perfected three and a half furlongs.
Race #7
1st - #7 Socorro County | 2nd - #1 Galica | 3rd - #4 Starlite Strike
COMMENTARY : The #7 SOCORRO COUNTY had a tough trip in Seattle a couple of weeks ago and still managed to rescue fifth money; she's better than most of these fillies and will just need a decent pace to run at. The #1 GALICA did well to almost get third after sitting in last place early watching a 49 opening half; she should be able to use her inside post to her advantage and stay closer to the pace (especially if it's going be very slow again) and if she does she could surprise some people. SHE'S BEATEN THIS KIND IN THE PAST !! The #4 STARLITE STRIKE had a perfect trip to get second (also a perfect trip in her victory two starts back) in the $52,000 Strawberry Morn and I think she'll be over-bet today in this competitive heat.
Race #8
1st - #4 Freequartersmine | 2nd - #2 Dancing O | 3rd - #1 Tribal Secret
COMMENTARY : The #4 FREEQUARTERSMINE did everything right in his debut except win as he ran into a nice filly (Alpine Lass - she's in the stake on Saturday) that had a race into her and ran down there in 39.40; I don't see any rocket-ships in the makings of the first timers so he should win this time. The #2 DANCING O is from a good family and has some decent morning trials. The #1 TRIBAL SECRET is bred to have some speed and gets Alvarado for her debut.
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