Mike's Race Analysis July 1, 2007
Race #1
1st - #3 Just Callme Blonde | 2nd - #6 Against The Sky | 3rd - #1 P S Kin
COMMENTARY : The #3 JUST CALLME BLONDE gave an excellent account of herself going a mile and a sixteenth off of a lengthy layoff and if the race didn't take too much out of her I think she'll get the money this time as she has a positional edge on her two main rivals. The #6 AGAINST THE SKY was very impressive last year in her only try at this trip winning by a huge margin; her last sprint was encouraging and she appears to be coming around nicely for today's race race. The #1 P S KIN has been consistent throughout her career but just can't seem to get the winner's cheque a little more often and I look for her to be right in the mix again this afternoon. CONSISTENT TRIACTA FILLY
Race #2
1st - #4 Toni The Iceman | 2nd - #6 Patriotic | 3rd - #2 Mullumbimby
COMMENTARY : The #4 TONI THE ICEMAN turned in a big effort last week winning in a very fast time for the level and as long as the quick turnaround (8 days) doesn't hurt him too much then I think he'll repeat. The #6 PATRIOTIC ran much better on Lasix in his most recent race and if the pace scenario gets heated (which it could) then he has an excellent shot of winning. The #2 MULLUMBIMBY will face easier today and go in blinkers after a couple of disappointing tries with better; he should get a nice trip and is obviously good enough to win at this price but he will need his best.
Race #3
1st - #3 Pingita | 2nd - #7 Miss Vicky | 3rd - #1 Tyra
COMMENTARY : The #3 PINGITA was taken back behind the speed in her latest and I really don't think looked very comfortable being there so I expect Pedro Alvarado to put on the lead this time and with no strong 'closer' in the lineup I think she'll last all the way. The #7 MISS VICKY had a wide trip with better (final time was slow) and looks to be the best off-the-pace runner in the group so I'll put her in the EXACTA. The #1 TYRA obviously has some physical issues as she's gone to sidelines after each of her three starts; she's way down in class and is teamed up with leading rider which is why I'll give her another shot today.
Race #4
1st - #3 Osolucky | 2nd - #6 Devils Knight | 3rd - #1 Entry
COMMENTARY : The #3 OSOLUCKY had a brutal trip and was a ton the best last time but had to settle for second money; he's up in class after the claim but he's good enough to win at this level and I'll take him to win it. The #6 DEVILS KNIGHT is down in price and looks to be the lone speed which will make him a major factor in this one. The #1 SUNRISE SERENADE is the better half of the entry at this mile and a sixteenth trip and if he can break better and stay closer to the pace then he has a good shot as well.
Race #5
1st - #7 Dressed As A Star | 2nd - #2 Sauce Girl | 3rd - #1 Perfect Peggy
COMMENTARY : The #7 DRESSED AS A STAR was a solid second last week after being carried out three and four throughout the entire journey and as long as she gets a decent trip then she should get the victory. The #2 SAUCE GIRL is facing easier competition today after running third in a non-two event for $20,000; a repeat of her latest is all she needs to be right there and speaking of being right there the queen of 'being close' the #1 PERFECT PEGGY is back in and has a nice draw for her style so look for her to be RIGHT THERE once again.
Race #6
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #6 Zippy Zak | 3rd - #4 Hey Mikey
COMMENTARY : The #1 DIRT DEVIL DREW and the #1A RAMPOLDI form a very strong entry that will be very tough to outrun; the #1 DIRT DEVIL DREW had a rough go from an outside draw last time but will be far more effective today from his better post and the #1a RAMPOLDI finally woke up and turned in a big performance when dropped down into this category so you get two 'live' chances with the #1 entry. The #6 ZIPPY ZAK was almost able to overcome his poor draw but he was understandably tired in the stretch and wound up fourth; he has a better post and should be the main threat to my top pick. The #4 HEY MIKEY has been working well for his return and I think with him starting down (as opposed to starting up high then gradually getting down to this tag) at this level he will be a better horse this year.
Race #7
1st - #2 Big City Kat | 2nd - #1 Rupert Storm | 3rd - #3 Mr. Bullseye
COMMENTARY : The #2 BIG CITY KAT took on a big task last time running in a non-two allowance after his maiden score at the $15,000 level; he's aggressively spotted down in this conditional $8,000 race and looks likely to get the early lead and I'll gamble that he'll carry his speed the entire way. The #1 RUPERT STORM is probably the best horse on paper but I'm a little worried about the pace scenario as he's strictly a one-run closer but he might be able to overcome a slow pace and win at this reduced tag. The #3 MR. BULLSEYE ran a much improved race last time finishing fourth despite racing three wide for the whole trip and looks to be the best of the rest.
Race #8
1st - #1 Luhuk's Dancer | 2nd - #4 Forceful Intention | 3rd - #7 Spaghetti Mouse
COMMENTARY : The #1 LUHUK'S DANCER looks to be the up and coming one that showcased his talents a couple of weeks ago in a comfortable score against allowance types that included three of his opponents today. His task is a little tougher from the rail but I think he'll get the job down; he's reunited with Felipe Valdez after Dave Wilson covered for him as Valdez was in Edmonton riding in the Alberta Derby and the Penny Ridge Stakes. The #4 FORCEFUL INTENTION is the one with the best 'last race' performance as he wired his foes in an excellent time in the Longden but my concern is the extra sixteenth of a mile and the likelihood of getting more pressure for the lead. The #7 SPAGHETTI MOUSE hasn't been as effective so far this year and really had every shot to beat the #4 FORCEFUL INTENTION last time but simply wasn't good enough. He's been almost unstoppable at this distance of nine furlongs (only loss was to True Metropolitan) so maybe he'll rebound with a better showing today. TOUGH RACE WITH NO STANDOUT !!!!
Race #9
1st - #6 P S Commander | 2nd - #5 Classic County | 3rd - #3 Classic Show
COMMENTARY : The #6 P S COMMANDER chased some very quick early splits at the $25,000 tag and wound up seventh beaten a little more than five lengths; he's down for $8,000 today and should find himself loose on the lead so it's his race to win or lose. The #5 CLASSIC COUNTY was much better last time finishing second in a very good time for the level and a repeat of that race could make this race very interesting between the top two in the stretch. The #3 CLASSIC SHOW raced in blinkers in his first run off the claim finishing a distant third with $15,000 older maidens; his task today is easier as he's with his own age group (the race is for three and up but they are all three year olds) and down for $8,000 so he could be a threat as well.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND !!