Mike's Race Analysis August 6, 2007
Race #1
1st - #1 Alpine Lass | 2nd - #4 Remarkable Miss | 3rd - #2 My Special Angel
COMMENTARY : The #1 ALPINE LASS has speed and the rail which is a dangerous combo for a filly that just romped in the $53,000 Timber Music in 1:17.60. The #4 REMARKABLE MISS raced a little greenly in her debut with the boys but still managed to rescue second money; she'll need to be better if she's to threaten the favourite. The #2 MY SPECIAL ANGEL had an encouraging debut going three and a half furlongs and has worked very well and she has the pedigree to be a 'runner' being a half-sister to the champion filly Excited Miss. THERE'S POTENTIAL HERE !!!
Race #2
1st - #4 Aragorn | 2nd - #5 Northern Pilot | 3rd - #1 Lion Bill
COMMENTARY : The #4 ARAGORN is a half-brother to the Redekop Classic favourite Spaghetti Mouse (later on today) so he should get better as the distances get longer; he'll finally get on a fast racing strip and with each start getting a bit better than the last I think he's sitting on a big effort this afternoon. The #5 NORTHERN PILOT had a tough trip from an outside post so I thought he did well to finish as good as he did; he's also bred to run this distance so he deserves respect as well. The #1 LION BILL is the controlling speed which is always a big plus but he will need to rate kinder than he has in his first two starts this year. PACE THREAT !!!
Race #3
1st - #4 Galica | 2nd - #1 Starlite Strike | 3rd - #2 Montero
COMMENTARY : The #4 GALICA was unlucky not to win last time as she was stopped while making a big move on the backstretch and it tough to get a big long striding mare to re-rally after getting stopped; she loves this longer nine-furlong trip and I think she'll be tough to fend off. The #1 STARLITE STRIKE battled the entire trip on the lead in her latest win against many of theses mares which was very impressive; she's definitely the one to beat but at a short price I think one has to play against her. The #2 MONTERO has had her career revitalized since going to Alberta were she got her first stakes victory in the $75,000 Wild Rose; she has some distance issues to overcome but she's razor sharp !!!
Race #4
1st - #3 Suva | 2nd - #5 Napa | 3rd - #2 Wind Storm
COMMENTARY : The #3 SUVA is back in town after an unsuccessful try in the rich $500,000 Woodbine Oaks two months ago; she's been freshened up and has been working like the champion that she is and I expect her to come back with a big run this afternoon on her home course. The #5 NAPA has been awesome this spring in winning two stakes at very nice prices and with the #3 SUVA in the lineup she probably won't be the favourite again although she's getting very good at being the underdog. She rated beautifully for Frank Fuentes in the $53,000 Supernaturel and ran by far the best race of her career so she's on her game and a huge threat again today. The #2 WIND STORM is a rapidly improving filly that if she can go long could be tough to beat as she has a tactical edge on her two chief rivals which could play large in the final outcome.
Race #5
1st - #7 James Creek Red | 2nd - #3 Corone Real | 3rd - #4 Sunrise Serenade
COMMENTARY : The #7 JAMES CREEK RED just missed in his last race but his performance looks a whole lot better now with 'Newton John' coming back to #1 of the Endurance series; he should love the eleven furlong trip and I think he'll be tough to beat. The #3 CORONE REAL is another one coming out a restricted race but he too is one on the improve and has worked in fine style since (hope the work didn't take too much out of him) he's been very good since stretching out and running long so don't be surprised to see him carry his speed a mile and three-eighths. The #4 SUNRISE SERENADE really hasn't cared for sloppy racetracks in the past so I'll toss his latest effort out and give him another look today.
Race #6
1st - #8 Ookashada | 2nd - #9 Bad Sneakers | 3rd - #7 Market Bell
COMMENTARY : The #8 OOKASHADA is definitely the one to beat in the $50,000 Stellar's Jay but with him drawing on the outside his versatility in racing styles could play a big role in the outcome. I don't think he needs the lead to win (which would be a good thing in this race) so if he can rate comfortably in third on the outside then I think his talent will carry him the rest of the way into the winner's circle. The #9 BAD SNEAKERS is an improving colt that put a scare into the #8 OOKASHADA last time which was his first stakes try; he hasn't drawn very well for his tracking style but if he can work out a decent trip he'll be dangerous in the stretch. The #7 MARKET BELL just broke his maiden for $25,000 but it's encouraging to see leading rider stay with him and with all of the speed in this race he should get set up nicely to get a big chunk of the purse money.
Race #7
1st - #1 Call Me Tomorrow | 2nd - #2 Brandon | 3rd - #3 Freequartersmine
COMMENTARY : The #1 CALL ME TOMORROW crushed his opponents in the $55,000 Ladnesian and with him facing mainly colts that have only run three and a half furlongs I like his chances of repeating. The #2 BRANDON looked good in winning at the $25,000 tag and has worked well for his first two-turn try and he'll get Lasix for the first time today. The #3 FREEQUARTERSMINE also looked good in winning on the nursery course but only has one five-eighths (albeit a good one) which is why I've left him in the third spot.
Race #8
1st - #5 Lord Nelson | 2nd - #3 Stole Another | 3rd - #4 Luhuk's Dancer
COMMENTARY : The #5 LORD NELSON just missed in his comeback race and with him working well for this dash I think he's the one to beat as trainer Dino Condilenios has had him prepped strictly for this race. The #3 STOLE ANOTHER has been absolutely unstoppable of late and is coming into the "Sprint" with a ton of confidence so he deserves respect in his first stakes start of the season. The #4 LUHUK'S DANCER might be a better sprinter than a distance horse and with trainer Ned Sams sharpening him up with a five-eighths drill in 58.80 he's yet another major player in an already competitive dash.
Race #9
1st - #4 Spaghetti Mouse | 2nd - #6 Forceful Intention | 3rd - #8 Tobe Suave
COMMENTARY : The #4 SPAGHETTI MOUSE has five wins from six tries at this mile and an eighth distance with lifetime earnings of over $626,000 and with only 121 pounds he should have no troubles racking up another BC Cup Redekop Classic victory. The #6 FORCEFUL INTENTION was chased pretty hard on the head end on Canada Day and I thought hung in very well; if he can get a break on the pace then he's the only one with a shot to dethrone the BC bred Horse-Of-The-Year. The #8 TOBE SUAVE was also very game in his last and considering he had to ship a long ways to run in Lieutenant Governors he might be a better horse today because he's trained at Hastings for the last month. UPSET POTENTIAL ??
Race #10
1st - #1 My Friend Geoff | 2nd - #8 Northern Vow | 3rd - #6 Lord Kaiser
COMMENTARY : The #1 MY FRIEND GEOFF was very gritty in defeat last time and if he repeats his latest game effort I don't think he'll get beat. The #8 NORTHERN VOW has had back-to-back second place finishes so far in his brief career and he's another sitting on a win. The #6 LORD KAISER has trained smartly for his debut and could be the surprise in this dash.
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