Mike's Race Analysis August 5, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Spice Trader | 2nd - #7 Dancing O | 3rd - #3 Ourangelsinheaven
COMMENTARY : The #6 SPICE TRADER ran well in his debut at this same tag and with a blinker change and a decent work I think he's set nicely up for a win. The #7 DANCING O was in a little too tough for her career debut checking in a distant third; she's in cheaper and has a nice outside draw so I won't be surprised if she were to improve a lot today. The #3 OURANGELSINHEAVEN was much better in her second start running second with slightly easier competition, this isn't a tough dash so she has a shot as well.
Race #2
1st - #6 Langley Road | 2nd - #4 P S I B Good | 3rd - #3 Jackson County
COMMENTARY : The #6 LANGLEY ROAD has shown that he has some run to him in the mornings which is why he earned a start for no tag; he's gone from the toughest maiden company to the easiest in one swoop and I think he'll give a good showing first time on a fast track. The #4 P S I B GOOD has had back-to-back runner-up efforts at this level. The #3 JACKSON COUNTY is facing slightly easier today after a good run three weeks back despite a wide trip; loses Hamel to the #6 LANGLEY ROAD but picks up leading rider.
Race #3
1st - #5 Surgical Strike | 2nd - #6 All Is Calm | 3rd - #1 Leo's County Kat
COMMENTARY : There isn't any speed in this mile and a sixteenth race so I'll gamble that the #5 SURGICAL STRIKE can get to the front and slow the tempo down and take this group all the way on the head end. The #6 ALL IS CALM has found a pretty soft spot to return and if he can get a little pace help then he should win the money. The #1 LEO'S COUNTY KAT was a distant second in the slop in his latest; strictly a TRIACTA play.
Race #4
1st - #6 Peacebethejourney | 2nd - #5 Grayross Gal | 3rd - #3 By Magic
COMMENTARY : The stable-mate's #5 GRAYROSS GAL and the #6 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY look great in this spot and I don't obviously expect them to duel for the early lead so they look like the probable EXACTA in this dash; for the win I went with Mario Gutierrez (had his choice which to ride) and streaking #6 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY. The #3 BY MAGIC came back from a brief rest in a tough race (there were no other spots to run) and is better spotted this afternoon.
Race #5
1st - #5 Newton John | 2nd - #4 Resident Authority | 3rd - #6 Devils Knight
COMMENTARY : The #5 NEWTON JOHN has been ultra-game since stretching out and going long and with this race coming up with just one other speed type in it I think he'll lead this group all the way. The #4 RESIDENT AUTHORITY is the obvious choice returning at the same level in which he won by almost six lengths but he is an off-the-pace type that can be compromised by a slow pace. The #6 DEVILS KNIGHT is the only other speed in here and if he can slow things down he has a great shot as well.
Race #6
1st - #7 Dance Odyssey | 2nd - #4 Destiny's Home | 3rd - #3 Post Rio
COMMENTARY : The #7 DANCE ODYSSEY is down in price and hasn't really caught a very tough field so with her appearing to be the speed of the race I really like her chances this afternoon. The #4 DESTINY'S HOME finished just in front of my top pick last time (although 'Odyssey' was chased hard the entire trip) and has been very consistent this year at or near this level. The #3 POST RIO easily crushed a field of $25,000 fillies early last month; she jumps up one notch for her new owner and could get a nice trip stalking the speed.
Race #7
1st - #3 Long Journey | 2nd - #1 Sir Gallovic | 3rd - #7 Beckenbauer
COMMENTARY : There looks to be plenty of speed to aid the chances of the late running #3 LONG JOURNEY who drops back into allowance company after he was a close third in his latest in the $54,000 Chris Loseth stakes. The #1 SIR GALLOVIC is an interesting newcomer that just broke his maiden at Belmont and has been purchased privately since that race; he has some speed but this really isn't the day to use it which so much other speed around him but the talent seems to be there and I think he'll fit nicely with this calibre. The #7 BECKENBAUER struck some trouble on the rail last time or he would've finished better than fourth beaten a little less than three lengths; he has the right running style for this particular race but he loses Gutierrez to the fresh import #1 SIR GALLOVIC. TALENTED GROUP BUT A VERY TOUGH RACE !!
Race #8
1st - #5 Silver Barrage | 2nd - #1 Don Juan's Dream | 3rd - #3 Bold Path
COMMENTARY : The #5 SILVER BARRAGE missed the break by about three lengths and then raced in the three path throughout and still managed to finish fourth in a fast heat and also with better company; if eh gets anywhere close to his performance of last week he'll win by many. The #1 DON JUAN'S DREAM will remove the blinkers today and actually does have the numbers to beat my top pick. The #3 BOLD PATH is taking a slight drop in class and has a good post which is a good thing for a lightly raced horse and that was enough for me to put him in the third spot.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!