Mike's Race Analysis August 19, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Complicit Swiss | 2nd - #2 Osolucky | 3rd - #1 Sideline
COMMENTARY : The #6 COMPLICIT SWISS has been the 'king' of the $8,000 ranks this year and I'll follow him back today even after his disappointing run at the $11,000 level; he should get a perfect trip sitting on the outside of the speedy #1 SIDELINE. The #2 OSOLUCKY is back down at the claim level after a couple of good efforts with better then most recently a poor run last time out; he's in sprinting which really isn't his thing but at this reduced level he must be respected. The #1 SIDELINE brings a three race win streak into this dash and has the rail and the speed to take advantage of his post; this is a far tougher test than his last but he might just be up to the task at hand once again.
Race #2
1st - #2 Grayross Gal | 2nd - #6 Sindi's Success | 3rd - #5 Camberley
COMMENTARY : The #2 GRAYROSS GAL was a little too sharp last time and set a quick pace which resulted in her getting tired in the final stages and finishing third; there isn't much pace in here so I think she'll settle kinder (gets her winning pilot back as well) which should make her tough to beat. The #6 SINDI'S SUCCESS is down in price after the claim and is always tough at this level; she's a solid consistent mare. The #5 CAMBERLEY has shown a little more run in her last two races and looks like the next best in this field of six mares.
Race #3
1st - #9 Jackson County | 2nd - #6 Bold Path | 3rd - #1 Quatari
COMMENTARY : The #9 JACKSON COUNTY has been getting better with each start this year and as long as the outside post doesn't hurt him too much he should win today if he repeats his latest effort. The #6 BOLD PATH ran into a monster last time and held third after sitting close to a fast pace; he needs to improve to win and I can see that happening today. The #1 QUATARI is taking a big drop in price after three no-threat performances; he has some speed and at this level he might just be able to get the early lead which will help his chances. TOUGH RACE !!!
Race #4
1st - #6 Ruthwell | 2nd - #3 Chivago | 3rd - #2 Random Genes
COMMENTARY : The #6 RUTHWELL has been a narrow loser in his last two tries at this same level and with any luck would've won last time; he's sitting on a win and as long as he gets a clean trip he looks like a 'single' or a 'key' in your wagers. The #3 CHIVAGO had no chance in his latest as he was forced out five wide through the early going and really wasn't persevered with in the final stages. He has a better post for his tracking style and I think he'll rebound with a good effort today. The #2 RANDOM GENES will come running late to get a piece of the TRIACTA and SUPERFECTA.
Race #5
1st - #6 R. Associate | 2nd - #8 Howe Sound | 3rd - #1 Proficiency
COMMENTARY : The #6 R. ASSOCIATE is suspiciously dropped way down in class and if he runs he'll likely win or run last; strictly a guessing game with him. WATCH ON PARADE !! The #8 HOWE SOUND has been freshened up and given a couple of conservative works and it was about this time last year that he got things turned around and started to win races. The #1 PROFICIENCY has been a bit of a disappointment this year after looking so good in the fall last year; he has speed and the rail and if can avoid a pace battle with the #5 WILLIWAW then he has a decent shot.
Race #6
1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #3 Cherokee Freedom | 3rd - #7 Not Just Dreaming
COMMENTARY : Both the #1 ALITTLEBITEXTRA and the #1a EBONY'S SILVER STAR are coming into this race off of solid performances at this distance; they appear to be a perfect tandem with one heading for the lead and the other lying in wait from off the pace; good shot of running first and second. The #3 CHEROKEE FREEDOM will try this longer trip for the first time and judging by the way that she runs she could get better as the distances get farther. The #7 NOT JUST DREAMING was caught in traffic behind a slow pace in her comeback race and if she gets a better trip she should be a factor with this group.
Race #7
1st - #5 Great Prince | 2nd - #3 Devils Knight | 3rd - #2 Kickboard
COMMENTARY : The #5 GREAT PRINCE has rattled off three consecutive victories since stretching out to this mile and a sixteenth trip and looks ready to win another; he's in tougher today after the claim but this really isn't very tough $15,000 field so I think he'll be up to the tougher test. The #3 DEVILS KNIGHT could control the tempo and set some sensible fractions today which would make him tough as well. The #2 KICKBOARD is getting down to a level where he's going be a major factor although he'll still need pace help if he's to win today.
Race #8
1st - #9 Mystical Act | 2nd - #7 Hastamanana | 3rd - #2 Dashboard Daisy
COMMENTARY : The #9 MYSTICAL ACT is exiting a very 'live' heat that has produced two next-out winners; she has speed and an easier assignment today so I like her chances of leading all the way. The #7 HASTAMANANA outran her lofty 26-1 odds last time by finishing second in a decent time and with a repeat of that race she'll be a big factor again this afternoon. The #2 DASHBOARD DAISY moves to an inside post today and the last time she had a good post she just missed winning.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!!