Mike's Race Analysis August 17, 2007
Race #1
1st - #7 Crown Victress | 2nd - #3 Up Sweep | 3rd - #4 Swinging Fox
COMMENTARY : The #7 CROWN VICTRESS was a good fourth in her debut in a very quick heat at this same trip; she faces easier competition from an excellent post and is definitely the one to beat. The #3 UP SWEEP has some nice morning drills and is out of a mare that had some speed. The #4 SWINGING FOX showed a little better speed in his latest going six panels which will make him a strong TRIACTA threat.
Race #2
1st - #3 Lady Vitesse | 2nd - #2 Count Your Dreams | 3rd - #5 Cahill Casey
COMMENTARY : The #3 LADY VITESSE just missed at this same level three weeks ago; her speed makes her dangerous. The #2 COUNT YOUR DREAMS ran her best race of the season in her last finishing less than a length behind the #3 LADY VITESSE; she's nicely drawn in gate two and should be a strong presence again with leading rider aboard. The #5 CAHILL CASEY hasn't threatened the allowance types in her last couple so she's in for a price for the first time in her career and gets the rider that seems to suit her best so I expect to see some improvement.
Race #3
1st - #2 Deputy Allstar | 2nd - #4 Der Koenig | 3rd - #5 Toni The Iceman
COMMENTARY : The #2 DEPUTY ALLSTAR rated just off of the speed in his victory two weeks back and I hope he can use that style again today; there's a bunch of speed with no solid back-runner so I think the runner that best adapts to the pace scenario will win the money and I'll gamble that he'll be better in his second race after a brief layoff. The #4 DER KOENIG was a close fourth in his last race which was at the optional $50,000 tag so it's a bit of a surprise to see him in at this level; if he can sit the trip just in behind the leaders he'll be dangerous. The #5 TONI THE ICEMAN has been rock solid at or near this level and as long as that mile and a sixteenth race didn't exhaust him too much then I think he'll be a big factor with this group.
Race #4
1st - #3 Vyking Venture | 2nd - #5 Winter Chill | 3rd - #7 Land Of Silver
COMMENTARY : The #3 VYKING VENTURE was a distant runner-up sprinting in her first race after the claim; she's back in a restricted non-two and stretches out to a trip that I think will bring out the best in her. The # 5 WINTER CHILL has been a much better filly since trying this longer trip two starts ago; she's back in with non-two's after a good try with the non-three types. The #7 LAND OF SILVER is another filly that will be better at this new distance and if the pace scenario is favourable for her then she could win right back.
Race #5
1st - #6 Post Rio | 2nd - #5 Kokopelli Wind | 3rd - #3 Africameetsindia
COMMENTARY : The #6 POST RIO just finished defeating $35,000 fillies in a good time and she's back in for $25,000 this afternoon with a good post for her style so she looks to be the most likely winner on the card. The #5 KOKOPELLI WIND chased the speed in her latest and flattened out a bit late; she's unlucky to find the filly that beat her coming down the claiming ladder with her so I'll put her in the second spot. The #3 AFRICAMEETSINDIA should catch some tiring speed and be part of the TRIACTA.
Race #6
1st - #3 C.L.'s Tiger | 2nd - #2 Superior Straits | 3rd - #9 J D's Carson Copy
COMMENTARY : The #3 C.L.'S TIGER is back down for $5,000 after a decent try with the $8,000 maidens; he's been good at this trip in the past and I think he's a strong wire-to-wire candidate. The #2 SUPERIOR STRAITS disappointed as the favourite in his last but he bled and will race on Lasix so he definitely deserves another shot. The #9 J D'S CARSON COPY is dropping down in price and gets leading rider so we should see a better result from him today.
Race #7
1st - #2 Fury's Allstar | 2nd - #1 Royal Sovereign | 3rd - #3 Gold Ticket
COMMENTARY : The #2 FURY'S ALLSTAR is a good solid sprinter that is drawn well and I like his chances of this group a long ways on the head end. The #1 ROYAL SOVEREIGN has come back to work well after a no-threat 3 year old debut over a very sloppy track; he's likely to get better conditions and should be far more of a factor. The #3 GOLD TICKET has been working extremely well for his return and on paper he's a bit better than most of these so if there is a pace battle he'll be the one flying in the lane.
Race #8
1st - #8 K P Timber | 2nd - #6 Turbo Tommy | 3rd - #3 Dr. J.C.
COMMENTARY : The fashionably bred #8 K P TIMBER just missed in his debut and with him coming right back at the same level he shouldn't get caught this time. The #6 TURBO TOMMY is the best off-the-pace runner in the lineup but he'll need pace help to win today. The #3 DR. J.C. had a rough trip in his latest so give him another chance.
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