Mike's Race Analysis August 10, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Rainbow Dash | 2nd - #6 Summer House | 3rd - #1 Inukshuk
COMMENTARY : The #5 RAINBOW DASH encountered a bit of trouble early in his debut and today I think he'll be a pace factor with a clean start which could be a big plus in this pace-less heat. The #6 SUMMER HOUSE was traveling well at the end of his race going three and a half furlongs and if he got enough conditioning out of his lone five furlong work then he'll be a big threat. The #1 INUKSHUK made a mess of the start in her debut costing her at least eight lengths so she obviously did well to get fourth money; the rail isn't the best spot for her but she still looks better than the rest even if she repeats her tardy beginning.
Race #2
1st - #1 Built This City | 2nd - #4 My Only Love | 3rd - #5 Sultry Eyes
COMMENTARY : The #1 BUILT THIS CITY shouldn't get any opposition for the early lead and with her being very sharp since the blinkers were removed three starts back I don't see anyone getting near her again this afternoon. The #4 MY ONLY LOVE had a good trip (on the rail throughout) to finish third behind the #1 BUILT THIS CITY and she'll need another good one to complete the EXACTOR; maybe the fast track will help her make things closer ???? The #5 SULTRY EYES will be hurt by the slow pace scenario but is still a likely TRIACTOR player.
Race #3
1st - #2 Shutup N Pay | 2nd - #6 Rupert Storm | 3rd - #1 Newton's Rule
COMMENTARY : The #2 SHUTUP N PAY will be playing 'catch-me-if-you-can' again today and with no real other speed to chase her I don't think that anyone in this group can catch her. The #6 RUPERT STORM has small pay cheques in both of his starts this year and unless someone can put pressure on the speed then another smaller cheque is likely again today. The #1 NEWTON'S RULE tried to chase the #2 SHUTUP N PAY last time and proved to be a losing move so look for him to be a little more conservative early which will give him a better chance of being in the top three.
Race #4
1st - #8 Wanna Be Foxy | 2nd - #1 Marysville | 3rd - #4 Shirleyanne
COMMENTARY : The #8 WANNA BE FOXY has been competitive with pricier maidens so she looks very good against this better level maiden group. The #1 MARYSVILLE ran her best race of the season at this distance two starts back and if my top pick doesn't handle the extra ground then she's the likely winner. The #4 SHIRLEYANNE didn't care for the 'sloppy' conditions last time out when finishing well back; she ran well in her first try going long and should be more of a factor today; picks up leading rider after Hoverson went to the #8 WANNA BE FOXY.
Race #5
1st - #5 Mulllumbimby | 2nd - #2 Just A Tribute | 3rd - #3 John Patrick
COMMENTARY : The #5 MULLUMBIMBY was a little better last time when the blinkers were added winding up a no-threat third at the $20,000 tag; he's down for $11,000 today and might be able to get the lead (no speed in this race) with Alvarado subbing for Dave Wilson who's in Alberta riding Monashee. The #2 JUST A TRIBUTE has been very consistent at or near this level and is definitely a big threat again this afternoon. The #3 JOHN PATRICK missed the break in his first try going long then proceeded to run off on the outside for six furlong before finally getting tired; he's back in a sprint and has room for improvement so I'll give him another shot.
Race #6
1st - #2 Against The Sky | 2nd - #1 Klinsman's Luck | 3rd - #5 Alittlebitextra
COMMENTARY : The #2 AGAINST THE SKY is undefeated at this distance and with her looking like she'll get a perfect trip in behind the speed I think she'll her streak intact. The #1 KLINSMAN'S LUCK was a pace casualty battling on a quick pace (47.20 then 1:11.80) with far better company last time; she's in a better spot today and could surprise some people. The #5 ALITTLEBITEXTRA is a good filly at this trip and could get a decent pace to run at but this race has come up pretty tough with many sharp fillies in the lineup which is the only reason I've left her in the third spot. TOUGH COMPETITIVE RACE !!!
Race #7
1st - #4 Winter Warning | 2nd - #7 Nineleventurbo | 3rd - #2 Lethal Grande
COMMENTARY : The #4 WINTER WARNING has had two poor races this year and both were on 'off-tracks' so as long as the track remains 'fast' then I like this guy's chances of rebounding with a big performance. The #7 NINELEVENTURBO is always capable at this price tag and it's usually the trip that dictates how he fares and I think from an outside draw (stay clear of trouble) he's going to get a good shot to win today. The #2 LETHAL GRANDE was afforded an easy uncontested lead in his latest and was just able to last to get a narrow victory; he's a game hard trying horse but with him all out to win one has to play against as there won't be much value playing him in this competitive heat. ANOTHER TOUGH RACE !!!
Race #8
1st - #3 Affiniti One | 2nd - #2 Mountain County | 3rd - #7 Hex
COMMENTARY : The #3 AFFINITI ONE got a little experience in his career debut going three and a half furlongs which should set him up for a good performance at this six furlong trip. The #2 MOUNTAIN COUNTY will get plenty of changes after a no-threat fourth with similar; he'll add blinkers and Lasix for his second start so look for a big improvement in him today. The #7 HEX is the lone filly in the field but does have a tactical edge on her male rivals as she appears to be the lone speed which is always dangerous at this trip.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!
