Mike's Race Analysis April 29, 2007
Race #1
1st - #5 Vyking Venture | 2nd - #6 Sophisticated Star | 3rd - #4 Tango Beat
COMMENTARY : There appears to be plenty of early speed in this dash which hopefully will play out nicely for the #5 VYKING VENTURE who will be coming from off the pace. She improved when Lasix and blinkers were added August and I'm hoping she'll continue that trend as she returns to claiming company. The #6 SOPHISTICATED STAR was very quick in her only start and still has to prove that she can handle this two-turn game. The key to success for her is if she can clear the field early and get the rail and the lead if she does she'll be tough to catch. The #4 TANGO BEAT has been consistent is her morning trials and with a significant break in the weights (102 lbs.) she might surprise some people.
Race #2
1st - #8 J D's Carson Copy | 2nd - #2 El Machiato | 3rd - #3 Nordic Trick
COMMENTARY : The #8 J D'S CARSON COPY ran his best race of 2006 when blinkers were added and judging by his worktab he's still on the improve, he has to overcome an outside post and I'll gamble that he does. The #2 EL MACHIATO had a rough trip in his only try going six panels so one can't really gauge his ability off of that race, he's trained smartly for his '07 debut and will race on Lasix for the first time so I expect big things from him today. The #3 NORDIC TRICK hails from a top barn that gets horses ready to win early so he deserves respect as well.
Race #3
1st - #9 Surgical Strike | 2nd - #5 Baron's Rank | 3rd - #8 Five Wild Cats
COMMENTARY : This race is a little weak for 'early speed' types and I think the #9 SURGICAL STRIKE can capitalize on a good opportunity here and post a wire-to-wire score. He's been training as good as anyone else and should get position on the lead without being asked too hard so I like his chances this afternoon. The #5 BARON'S RANK is another that should stay close to the 'slow pace' and has a better shot of having a good season starting his campaign in April unlike his '06 year when he jumped in against 'ready horses' in October. The #8 FIVE WILD CATS has already shown in his last two seasons that he runs well fresh and with him down in price he must not be overlooked.
Race #4
1st - #9 Grayross Gal | 2nd - #7 Savin' Dimes | 3rd - #4 Vye Me To The Moon
COMMENTARY : The #9 GRAYROSS GAL had an abbreviated campaign last year while racing with better company, she's down in class and has to deal with poor draw but at this level I think she can overcome the outside assignment and win the dough. The #7 SAVIN' DIMES has also won with pricier and is actually very unlucky to run into a mare like the #9 GRAYROSS GAL in this spot but with her solid works (final prep in 1:14.40 for 6 furlongs) she should be very tough even with 'Grayross' in the lineup. The #4 VYE ME TO THE MOON has the potential to beat the top two but off of her last seven starts it would be foolish to play her but the one underlying detail is that she runs her best races early in the season and if she can beat the gate (has troubles leaving there at times) then maybeeee !!! Demand a fair price on her though if you are going to gamble that she might come up with her best effort.
Race #5
1st - #1 Portrait | 2nd - #7 Peacebethejourney | 3rd - #5 Mistress Of Money
COMMENTARY : The #1 PORTRAIT cost $60,000 as a yearling and broke her maiden for no tag but is now (as a four year old) being offered for $8,000 in the non-two lifetime event. She has the rail and should get an excellent trip on or near the lead. The #7 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY will be dangerous today as she looks likely to get the early lead all to herself and if my top pick isn't at her best then she'll win. The #5 MISTRESS OF MONEY has numerous quick works and looks to be better than she was last year. PRICE PLAY !!!
Race #6
1st - #5 Alert N Wise | 2nd - #8 Beckenbauer | 3rd - #9 Ronaldino
COMMENTARY : The #5 ALERT N WISE has been a private purchase since his last race and the connections have to be delighted with the way he's been training, leading rider jumps aboard and with him likely to get a good trip near the lead I'll take him on top. The #8 BECKENBAUER has an excellent pedigree, he didn't show much at two but has every reason to improve as a three year old. The #9 RONALDINO has some decent morning activity and the connections send out horses ready (always trains near 30%) so you can never go too far wrong by playing this barn.
Race #7
1st - #8 Ghost Pirate | 2nd - #6 Long Journey | 3rd - #7 Toni The Iceman
COMMENTARY : The #8 GHOST PIRATE closed out 2006 with back-to-back victories and appears to be the one to fear this six furlong sprint. He has enough speed to clear and it'll take a big effort from someone else to reel him in late at this shorter trip so I have to side with him. His main competition looks to be the #6 LONG JOURNEY who finished just in behind GHOST PIRATE the last time they met. He's been going nicely in the a.m. and if he can get someone to chase "Pirate" then he'll be a real threat in the lane. The #7 TONI THE ICEMAN has been freshened up after a disappointing effort against the top two in a similar race last fall, he's better than that race and I expect him to be more of a force today.
Race #8
1st - #2 Ookashada | 2nd - #1 Stephanson | 3rd - #3 Thesaratogaexpress
COMMENTARY : The #2 OOKASHADA was the 2006 two year old champion and judging by his blazing worktab he's starting right where he left off 'on top of his game'. He'll get pressure (this race is six and a half furlongs) from the #3 THESARATOGAEXPRESS but I'm not convinced that he absolutely needs the lead to win so if the pace pressure gets too intense then look for Alvarado to let 'Saratoga' go early then re-rally. He's the best horse The #1 STEPHANSON has the best shot if the two speedsters hook up in a prolonged duel, he's run in 1:17 and change before so the talent is there if the top two slip up. The #3 THESARATOGAEXPRESS is an extremely gifted runner that won two of his three starts last season, he's already beaten OOKASHADA in the Sales Stakes last September so he deserves respect as well. TOUGH RACE - THESE ARE THREE NICE COLTS !!!!
Race #9
1st - #4 Kiwi Buck | 2nd - #6 Walking Solo | 3rd - #1 Chumley
COMMENTARY : The #4 KIWI BUCK might be the best speed and I look for him to get an easy lead and finally get that elusive first win in his 17th career try. The #6 WALKING SOLO was second in his final start here last year and a repeat of that race puts him right in the thick of things, needs to outrun his slowish works though. The #1 CHUMLEY ran his best races for apprentice Mark Stephen last fall and Mark is back in then saddle today, he has the advantageous inside draw going six panels.
THANKS FOR JOINING US ON-LINE AND HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON AT HASTINGS !!!!!