Race Analysis - Sunday, May 9

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: HORNBLOWER has been working well enough and he is bred to be a decent horse. He appears to be the first runner by First Samurai who won his debut at two as well as the Grade 1 Hopeful and Champagne. The best of HORNBLOWER'S four siblings to race is Grade 2 winner Spice Island who banked $487K. Over the past five years Condilenios is 14 percent with first time starters. MR. INSTIGATOR is a half-brother to $534K earner Cashem, a multiple stakes winner who won his debut at two. He is by a decent debut sire and the barn can certainly have them ready to go first time out. TARUE GRIT may have tipped his hand with a sharp 3-furlong move last Sunday. Sire below average with first time starters but three of his five sibs won at two including Millwright who won his debut at two and then went on to place in a couple of stakes.

RACE TWO: AINTNOMISBEHAVIN figures to move forward in her second start following a layoff plus this will be her second time going around two turns. She should also appreciate the class relief with the drop into a maiden claiming race. Her dam could run a bit and her only sibling won a couple of races from five starts so there is some pedigree potential. WESTERN DELTA has been working smartly and six of her eight siblings are winners. Sire is roughly 11 percent with first time starters. MacPherson hasn't had much success with first time starters lately, 0/17, but he is on fire at the current meet and over the past five years he is 17 with horses making their debuts. Gutierrez attracted and it wouldn't be surprising to see her make an impact if she breaks alertly from her inside post. MAGIC THUNDER figures to show more going around two turns than she did in her initial start this year. Alvarado abandons her to ride ANDTHATSTHETRUTH and she is another one that appears to be capable in a wide open event.

RACE THREE: SAY FABULOUS ran well in all three of his races going 3 1/2 furlongs last year and with his breeding he should appreciate more distance. He has been working well enough for his first start as a sophomore and the barn can not only have them ready to go coming off of this type of layoff, they are on a bit of a roll to start the meet. MOONCORE cuts his price in half following a solid effort first time out this year. He easily has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field but not sure why the panicky drop off of a pretty decent race. NORTHERN INTENT looks ready to go in his first start this year and he comes out of a key race that produced three next out winners. MOBIL SUPREME takes a substantial drop and should appreciate the much easier company.

RACE FOUR: HUNTSMASTER didn't break that sharply and then made a premature move into an honest pace while racing three-wide so it wasn't surprising that he tired late. He should be tighter in his second start following a layoff and he also moves to the rail where he should be able to save some valuable ground. DESERT ALF is the obvious question mark in the race. He won the $106K Jack Diamond Futurity at two but hasn't raced since he finished well back in the Jim Coleman Province Stakes in May of 2008. His works have been decent enough and if he holds together he could easily win this. QUICK FIX has posted three solid 5-furlong moves and could be ready for a big effort coming off the bench. ARTABAN had a perfect trip in the same race HUNTSMASTER exits and is an obvious threat off of his solid second place finish. Not sure if he'll get the same kind of trip from this post, however.

RACE FIVE: SEE L. A. chased an honest pace but couldn't catch the two horses that were in front of her in a $10K maiden race opening day and she cuts her price in half as she drops to the bottom. She has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post and will either set the pace or sit just off of what could be a contested pace. Either way, she looks like the one to beat. SARATOGA NOVA is also cutting her price in half and she ran well to finish second going 3 1/2 furlongs on the same day as the top pick. She is certainly eligible to move forward in her second start following a lengthy layoff and anything out of this barn has to be taken seriously. FOOLERY ran a decent race when she debuted in a maiden special weight race last year so there are some obvious concerns seeing her resurface in a bottom level maiden race. We're going to guess the plan is to put her on the lead with the 10-pound bug on and see how far she'll go.

RACE SIX: ARRIVEE ARRIVEE just missed at this level in his initial start at the meet and the horse that beat him came right back to almost beat open claimers for this price last weekend. Not sure what happened in his dull effort in his final start last year but he's usually reliable and the strong jockey-trainer stats are certainly encouraging. CLASSIC IDEALS comes out of the same barn and he didn't have any noticeable excuses for his dull effort. He came back to work a best of the day half-mile and Welch sticks with him so it wouldn't be surprising to see him rebound with a much better effort here. MR. APPLE CIDER ran into a couple of tough ones when he tried open company going 3 1/2 furlongs in his latest. He'll appreciate the drop into a conditional claimer and he has enough speed to be prominent right from the start. THAT'SMYRIVAL helped spice up the exotics when he finished third at 34-1 in the ARRIVEE ARRIVEE race. No reason he can't pick up a slice again.

RACE SEVEN: DANCING ALLSTAR has never lost sprinting at this track and she'll appreciate the class relief after mixing it up with Grade 3 company in her last couple of races at Woodbine. She tired when she came back from a long layoff in the Whimsical but is should serve as a useful prep for this and she just might be too much for this group if she is up to her best. CONCERT MUSIC is clearly the main threat off of her sharp win over BLUE SKY HOLIDAY and WIND STORM in her first start this year. She passed her first serious class test with style and she might be good enough to stay unbeaten if she continues her progress. WIND STORM figures to move forward in her second start back and should get a nice trip from just off of what could be a hot pace. KAWEAH PRINCESS won a stakes race at Fairplex so she shouldn't have any trouble handling the turns here. She is also coming off of a solid second behind No Flies On Doodle in a key race at Emerald Downs. Doodle came back to win the Hastings Stakes last weekend and the third place finisher came back to romp by over seven lengths in a $40K optional race, also at Emerald.

RACE EIGHT: VICTORY CLAP got off to a poor start and he also had to wait for room while he was making a bit of a move going around the second turn when he debuted for $20K on April 25. He drew poorly for this but he is cutting his price in half and he could be dangerous if he breaks alertly. MOSEL RIVER ran evenly in the same race the top pick exits and is clearly capable of winning this if he takes the expected move forward in his second outing at the meet. ALYBYE ON FIRE just missed when he debuted going 3 1/2 furlongs last year and it turned out to be a decent race. The winner has won a couple of races since including an upset over $25K claimers last Saturday. The third place finisher won her next start. Works are solid for his return and he could be dangerous if he breaks alertly from his inside post. STREET PATROL would warrant serious consideration if he drew into the body of the race.