Race Analysis - Monday, May 24

Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: SUNDAY MISS ran well to finish a close fourth in her seasonal debut versus non-winners of three and should move forward with a race under her belt. Her best races have been going longer but she'll appreciate the drop in class. If Cardenas can keep her in touch early she should be able to wear them down. LA BIKINA had a pretty wide trip but never quit trying when she finished third in a similar race at this level May 8. She should get a better trip in this short field and the barn continues to roll. WATCHYOURSTEP has faded both times she has tried two-turn sprints but there doesn't appear to be any other confirmed speed and she should have an easy time of it up front. If she is ever going to do it, today is the day. She won't be much of a price, however.

RACE TWO: SCOOTER BUG figures to move forward off of his sharp second at this level and distance May 14 and could take them all the way if he breaks alertly. His trainer has also done well with horses running in these abbreviated sprints in the past. FOOLERY faded after forcing the issue early in her initial start this year and should appreciate the move to a shorter distance. Her third place finish in her debut going this distance was a decent effort and the horse that finished second came back to romp by six in a maiden special weight race. DANCEWITHMEMOLLY also tired going longer in her latest and she'll appreciate the cut back in distance. STEVIE MARIE could be dangerous if she breaks a little sharper than she did last time.

RACE THREE: PUNCH BACK is the only horse in the field with more than a single win and he won both times he ran for a tag after he broke his maiden last summer. He can also rate and there should be an honest pace for him to work with here. No chance against Jack Diamond Futurity winner Silly Fella in his latest, but he'll appreciate the significantly easier company he's facing today. DUTAMIS set a quick pace and then held on well to finish third for $25K in his second start of the year and it was an improvement over his fourth in the same race PUNCH BACK won two back. He figures to move forward in the third start of his current form cycle and should stick around long enough to pick up a slice. MACONDO needed his initial start this year, came back with a solid 5-furlong move, and could be ready for a big effort with the drop into a claiming race for the first time since he broke his maiden in his second start.

RACE FOUR: WINDY DAY is a much better horse at a middle distance so that was a huge race he ran when he finished second in a sprint at this level May 14. He has some tactical speed in a race where they won't be going very fast up front and he should be tough to handle with the move to a distance he has won eight races at. GREAT PRINCE comes out of the same race and he also ran well at a distance he doesn't prefer. Toss his last race of the year last season and he was a pretty steady performer all year going this far. TIMELESS DANCER tailed off in Feb. when he was at Turf Paradise but he's been freshened for this and has worked well enough leading up to his return. He has some speed and could be dangerous if he gets away on his own.

RACE FIVE: TWOBIT'N BILLIE has run solid races in all three of her starts going 3 1/2 furlongs and the horse that won her latest came right back to win a $17,500 sprint going 6 ½ furlongs with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure. TWOBIT'N BILLIE is in good hands and should appreciate the drop in class. We'll assume she can go this far. ESCUINAPA faded badly in her initial start this year but she went into the race with just a couple of 5-furlong moves and clearly needed the race. She rebounded with a sharp bullet 5-furlong move in :59.40 seconds May 13 and should take a big step forward here. She'll also appreciate the significant drop in class. OUR COCO BEANS is another one that figures to move forward with a race under her belt and she should get a ground saving trip from her inside post.

RACE SIX: CLASSIC IDEALS came back with a solid race following a dull start to her 2010 season and should be ready for a big effort in the third start of her current form cycle. She has shown more speed in the past so it wouldn't be surprising to see Hamel have her involved a little sooner this time. TWOFOURTIME has been working smartly and could be ready for a strong performance coming off the bench. BIG SHINY missed all of 2009 so no surprise that he didn't show a lot when he returned from the long layoff. He took a big step forward in his second start back and could be dangerous if he keeps moving forward.

RACE SEVEN: KNIGHT RAIDER showed she can rate with her very good second in the Federal Way at Emerald Downs May 9 and that should do her well with all of the potential speed in the field. She easily has the best Beyer Speed Figures and the only other time her trainer ventured north she finished first and third in the Grade 3 B.C. Derby last year. OTERO should appreciate the likely fast pace and she figures to move forward in her second start of the year. She also drops 5-pounds and that could give her the edge over DEAREST PRINCESS who beat her in her latest. DEAREST PRINCESS goes for her fourth in a row, has worked well since she ran, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if she's good enough to win this.

RACE EIGHT: LEND ME A DIME has done everything right except win in his two starts and if GOBAL WARMING doesn't come out running he should get that done here. His jockey and trainer teamed up for a nice win with a first time starter on Friday and it looks like they could add another one here. GOBAL WARMING has worked smartly for a trainer that can have on ready to go first time out - 21 percent with first time starters over the past five years. NOTEMYTIME made a menacing move when he took the lead at the quarter-pole in the same race LEND ME A DIME exits and should be tighter with a race under his belt. He also has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post.