Race Analysis for July 10

 Analysis by Randy Goulding

RACE ONE:  I WANNA GO FAST takes a big drop after a wide trip in his latest and he should be able to close into what could be an honest enough pace. He is dropping below the price he was claimed for two back and he'll certainly appreciate the easier company. COLONEL COURTNEY is 10 now so he might have lost a step for two but he has worked strongly since he finished second to SNOW MOON on June 11 and could be ready to run a big race. He has good tactical speed and should get a nice trip from a stalking position. ALERT N WISE looks like the main speed and he could easily take them all the way if he clears early. He forced the pace before fading in the same race I WANNA GO FAST exits but it looks like he'll be the one they'll have to go around heading into the first turn this time. SNOW MOON isn't the most consistent horse around but he should get a similar type of trip when he won at this level two back.

RACE TWO:  DARK VADER looked good winning a bottom level race for non-winners this year and should stand the raise. He strung together quite a few solid races last year and his trainer has excellent stats with horses that have won their last race so it is easy to assume he'll come back with another strong performance. MONSTERINTHECLOSET ran an improved race when he dropped to this level for his latest and he figures to get a similar type of stalking trip. TOUGH TORQUE has been right there in all three of his starts this year and there doesn't appear to be a lot of other confirmed speed. He was able to win his latest despite running hooked the whole way and he could be tough to get past if he is allowed to set soft fractions.

RACE THREE:  FINALITY PHILLY is the kind of horse her local Hall of Fame trainer has won a lot of races with in his career. She has good speed, gets in light and is stretching out for the first time. She also looked pretty sharp when she earned a bullet for her four-furlong move in :47.40 seconds July 1. DIVA BALLERINA is clearly the horse to beat off of her emphatic win when she stretched out to this distance for the first time. The horse that finished second to her came back to win a $10K maiden race by close to 10-lengths. She is stepping up to face winners but none of the ones she is facing have won more than a single race and she easily has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance. MAIDA VALE could be a threat from a stalking position.

RACE FOUR:  NOTIS ME looks like the lone speed again and she figures to move forward in her third start this year. She didn't quite make it the whole way last time but she had been off for a month due to getting stuck in the gate when she was supposed to run on June 12 and she should be set up perfectly now. BEAUTIFUL BREEZE has been right there in her last two races at this level and finished just behind the top pick in her latest. She gets some weight off with Pacheco taking the call and is certainly capable of winning this if she brings her best stuff. RAYITO DE LUNA is probably better going longer but she has won sprinting and is dropping off of a decent effort going around three turns. She might be able to get up in time to pick up a slice.

RACE FIVE:  ROYAL RAGS has the best speed and he easily has the best last race Beyer Speed Figure. He also drew inside and his main rival, SOCK PUPPET, is going to have a hard time working out a trip from the 11-hole. Hard to have a lot of confidence with a horse that has had this many chances but it looks like he found the right group to finally get over the hump. SOCK PUPPET has picked up slices in his last three and his Beyer Speed Figures are heading in the right direction. Tough post but it is possible Cardenas will find a way to save some ground early and at the least he should be part of any exotics ticket. W W WANDERER has had two sharp works since he ran, especially the half-mile move in :46.60 seconds July 6, and could be ready for a big effort in his first try going around two turns. His new trainer is also doing a very good job with her small stable.

RACE SIX:  TRICK OF THE NORTH should be ready for a big effort in his third start. He got stuck behind a slow pace in his first outing and he wasn’t beat by all that much when he came back to finish fourth in a quickly run $50K optional race June 20. He is reunited with Skelly who won four races with him last year including the Grade 3 Premiers, and there should be an honest enough pace for him to work with. MEAUX POWER will appreciate the move to his best distance after running evenly in a couple of sprints to start the year. Over the past five years Cloutier is 26 percent with horses going from a sprint to a route and MEAUX POWER posted solid Beyer Speed Figures when he reeled off three straight wins at this distance last year. He should also get a nice trip from his inside post. RAISING MEMO came from well off the pace to pull off an upset in his latest and it isn't very often you get that kind of price from this barn, so he must have surprised his connections as well. He is stepping up again but he has run well going long in the past and he just might be good enough to stand the raise.

RACE SEVEN:  RIBOLETTO drops back into a maiden claiming race for the first time since he was claimed last year and he'll certainly appreciate the easier company. The horse that finished second in his latest came back to win a $30K optional maiden race with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start. RIBOLETTO picked it up in his latest work and maybe the improved move had something to do with the blinkers coming off. VYING FOR GLORY is also taking the blinkers off and it might help him relax a bit more on the lead. He appears to have enough speed to clear and if he runs back to his solid second two back he could be tough to catch. This barn is always dangerous, but even more so when Perez is riding. NORTHWAY broke okay but then showed absolutely no early interest when he debuted for this price June 26. He did finish full of run, however, and if he can get involved a little sooner he could make a big impact late.

RACE EIGHT:  ELUSIVE INTENTIONS seems to be on top of her game right now and she made a strong move to get up for second in a similar race where they were walking up front. There are a couple of horses that have shown good speed sprinting that are stretching out so she should have a more honest pace to work with today. OUR COCO BEANS is one of the ones stretching out and she has good speed and gets in light. She is by a sire that won the West Virginia Derby and her dam won a couple of races going long so she should get the distance. LADY SASHA is back with the girls and she could be coming up to a peak effort in her second straight route. It is also the third race since she came back from a long layoff and she has enough tactical speed to stay in touch with OUR COCO BEANS. NITE TIME NEWS has been in the money in seven of nine tries at the distance and should be part of any exotics ticket.