Mike's Race Analysis October 4, 2008
Race #1
1st - #6 Area Code | 2nd - #1 Entry | 3rd - #7 Kinda Special
COMMENTARY : The #6 AREA CODE should get another ideal setup today as there appears to be at least four need-the-lead types in this dash so I like him come right back with another off-the-pace victory. The #1 WHEN IN ROME and the #1a LION BILL both have similar running styles and that could prove beneficial in this heat; the latter seems to be going better and is the stronger half of the entry. The #7 KINDA SPECIAL is likely the best horse in the race and I didn’t want to leave him out just because of all the early pace; he’s shown in the past that he can sit just off of the leaders and still run his A-race so he deserves a long look on the big class drop.Race #2
1st - #6 Huffman | 2nd - #1 Nineleventurbo | 3rd - #3 Sly Striker
COMMENTARY : The #6 HUFFMAN should clear early and get to the front quite easily which will be a big key to his success; he’s fallen out of form a tad but I think he’ll rebound with a good showing at this level. The #1 NINELEVENTURBO is always tough to beat at any price and the connections spotted him well last time taking advantage of his age that is now in double digits as he scored comfortably over $15,000 claimers. He’s up in price (this isn’t the toughest $25,000) today but I think he’ll be even better and be a huge threat again. The #3 SLY STRIKER looked good in winning at this level a couple of weeks back but with the threat of rain in the forecast his chances diminish; he’s obviously good enough to win but he’ll need to handle the track.
Race #3
1st - #8 Bright Spring | 2nd - #4 Cielo Rojo | 3rd - #6 Maxi Chip
COMMENTARY : The #8 BRIGHT SPRING has made a couple of significant changes (blinkers and Lasix) for today’s race that hopefully will positively affect her performance; she has speed and there isn’t a ton of pace in this dash so I think with the sharp work (1:00.60) and dropping out of stakes company we’ll see a big effort form her. The #4 CIELO ROJO is the obvious choice off of her three consecutive runner-ups but she may be getting all too comfortable running in the PLACE spot at short odds which is why I’ve left her in that same spot again today. The #6 MAXI CHIP has a nice work schedule leading up to her first try around two turns and is one that could possess some value.Race #4
1st - #2 Pedegral | 2nd - #9 Search Mode | 3rd - #6 Dark Hall
COMMENTARY : The #2 PEDEGRAL appears to be the speed of the race and speed has dominated these six furlong two year old races; he’s likely to set a sensible tempo and with him down in class he should be able to stay on top against this group. The #9 SEARCH MODE is another facing an easier task and if can work out a decent trip from his outside draw then he has a shot as well. The #6 DARK HALL looks to be the only other speed horse in the lineup so he should be in a good spot early but he’ll need to be a bit braver in the stretch if he’s to get the victory.Race #5
1st - #3 Brave Irish | 2nd - #6 Bartzella | 3rd - #4 Akickatthekat
COMMENTARY : The #3 BRAVE IRISH has had a couple of solid efforts of late at this level and if he can stay close to the pace like he did last time then he has a big chance. The #6 BARTZELLA has been freshened up after a disappointing effort with slightly better maidens; he as some speed and might find this bunch to his liking. The #4 AKICKATTHEKAT exits a strong heat that was run in very quick time for the level; he moves to the leading barn.Race #6
1st - #2 Golden Pursuit | 2nd - #7 Joyride | 3rd - #8 Rx Registrar
COMMENTARY : The #2 GOLDEN PURSUIT should be dangerous on the class drop after his improved effort sprinting with $25,000 claimers; he’ll like the company as well as an ‘off track’ so I’ll side with him as he stretches out to his best distance. The #7 JOYRIDE got his first win in nearly two years in his last and he too will appreciate a sloppy track so he looks like the main threat. The #8 RX REGISTRAR isn’t as accomplished at this trip as the top two but he has some speed and there might not be a very fast pace which would favour this guy.Race #7
1st - #7 P.S. Good N Ready | 2nd - #2 Fashionable Affair | 3rd - #4 Tick Me Off
COMMENTARY : The #7 P.S. GOOD N READY has been an impressive filly for a barn that has had a sensational season; she has versatility in her running style which will be a plus in this race and a Canadian-bred filly hasn’t been close to her since her rough trip in the Timber Music back in July so she’s going to be tough to beat this afternoon. I think the #2 FASHIONABLE AFFAIR is the only filly with a shot for an upset as she looked extremely good in breaking maiden when being challenged on a hot pace throughout; she lacks seasoning but could be loose on the head end in the slop; upset chance. The #4 TICK ME OFF was a little too close to the pace last time out and didn’t finish very well but if she’s taken farther back early I think she’ll hit the board.Race #8
1st - #9 Crafty Tribute | 2nd - #7 Zethar | 3rd - #8 McGill
COMMENTARY : The #9 CRAFTY TRIBUTE was much the best in her maiden tally as she was very wide throughout and still got up for the win; this is a tougher assignment but I feel she’s on the improve and could repeat. The #7 ZETHAR is the one to come and catch but I thought she should’ve won last time so I think she’s a vulnerable favourite. The #8 McGILL goes on Lasix for the first time this afternoon and more importantly gets some class relief; she has speed and should be a good striking position; danger.GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GOOD DAY !!!
