Mike's Race Analysis May 24, 2008
Race #1
1st - #5 Launch Our Star | 2nd - #4 Ebonys Silver Star | 3rd - #1 Not Just Dreaming
COMMENTARY : The #5 LAUNCH OUR STAR makes her return to Hastings after having a successful spring in Calgary winning two of three; she looks to be the lone speed which should make her very tough in this spot. The #4 EBONYS SILVER STAR was rated off the pace to get her win at this same tag after battling on head end in her ’08 debut; she’ll likely need to stay closer to the pace this if she’s to repeat. The #1 NOT JUST DREAMING is up in price after a narrow with easier; she’s been competitive at this level in the past and can stay with these on her best day.
Race #2
1st - #1 Alexandersrun | 2nd - #6 Agro | 3rd - #2 Golden Pursuit
COMMENTARY : The #1 ALEXANDERSRUN ran his best races early last year and with him way down in price and working well in the a.m. I’ll take him in this dash. The #6 AGRO took full advantage of a five-way speed duel at this level two weeks back and got a narrow win at 31-1; this race is going to set very different and it’s likely he’ll need to race near what should be a slow pace if he’s to grab the winner’s cheque again today. The #2 GOLDEN PURSUIT is a much better horse going long but on occasion has sprinted well so he deserves respect as well. COMPETITIVE RACE THAT IS TOUGH TO HANDICAP !!
Race #3
1st - #1 Taylor's Route | 2nd - #7 Undersecretary | 3rd - #2 M L's Indian
COMMENTARY : The #1 TAYLOR’S ROUTE is taking a huge drop in class draws the rail and should win at a short price. The #7 UNDERSECRETARY is another taking a big plunge but will likely still need some pace help if he’s to win today. The #2 M L’S INDIAN ran well and deserved a better fate in his’08 debut but his task is a much tougher this afternoon.
Race #4
1st - #2 Spirit Bear | 2nd - #1 Ultraforce | 3rd - #5 Liberty Jack
COMMENTARY : The #2 SPIRIT BEAR has trained smartly for his first start of the year and was actually cut out to be a better than an $8,000 horse; there is other speed in this one but with an inside draw he should get to the rail with the lead and be tough to catch. The #1 ULTRAFORCE turned in a solid effort in his first outing and with the likelihood of a contested pace he should be a big factor in the stretch. The #5 LIBERTY JACK raced four wide throughout much of the race last time and still managed to hold onto the third spot; he’s drawn better for his stalking style and is another with a good chance in this wide open affair.
Race #5
1st - #8 Usher Inc. | 2nd - #4 Saratoga Avenue | 3rd - #7 Afleet Allstar
COMMENTARY : The #8 USHER INC. ran a better-than-looked race in his debut and with him moving off the rail and probably getting a decent pace set in front of him I really like his chances of winning this afternoon. The #4 SARATOGA AVENUE ran into a nice colt in his first start this year at the $25,000 level finishing second and I think he can handle this jump up to the top maiden bracket. The # 7 AFLEET ALLSTAR missed the break and raced very greenly and was never a factor; he’s worked far too well to run that poorly and I’ll gamble that he’s more of a professional today and turns things around.
Race #6
1st - #7 Comet Seven | 2nd - #1 Tribal Belle | 3rd - #2 Queen's Emblem
COMMENTARY : The #7 COMET SEVEN gets an easier test today after getting a couple of cheques with better and besides we have to play a horse with 7 in his name when he gets the 7 post right ??? The #1 TRIBAL BELLE was very erratic in her debut and lost the rider at the quarter-pole but the two will give-it-a-go again today which is encouraging. The #2 QUEEN’S EMBLEM has speed from the inside and light weight with the apprentice Jason Pang who has been riding very well so she has a decent chance of taking this group a long ways on the head end.
Race #7
1st - #4 E Commerce | 2nd - #3 Savin' Dimes | 3rd - #2 Rich Debut
COMMENTARY : The #4 E COMMERCE was part of a quick pace in her last and it cost her as she was reeled in late by a couple of off-the-pace runners; the pace scenario should be far easier on her today. The #3 SAVIN’ DIMES blew the start in her last and amazing was only beaten less than three lengths; she gets her winning pilot back today and could be a threat with a better beginning. The #2 RICH DEBUT is an easier spot today and her best gets her a big piece of the purse; inconsistent type though.
Race #8
1st - #1 Tribal Secret | 2nd - #6 Cuddlemekaylee | 3rd - #10 P.S. Miss G I
COMMENTARY : The #1 TRIBAL SECRET wasn’t a factor in her first start of the season but did manage to beat a few that day; she’ll go without blinkers and drop a notch in class which should make her a strong threat. The #6 CUDDLEMEKAYLEE will also make a blinker change today off of a couple of decent efforts after missing the start both times. The #10 P.S. MISS G I might be the speed of the race but has a tough post and her final outcome will definitely depend on her trip today; if she gets a decent trip she can win it.
Race #9
1st - #8 Alert N Wise | 2nd - #4 Soldiers Return | 3rd - #7 Organist
COMMENTARY : The #8 ALERT N WISE turned in a very game effort finishing fourth after getting fanned five wide around the first turn; his trip should be a better one and easier opponents won’t hurt either. The #4 SOLDIERS RETURN has crushed a couple of easier groups in his first two runs this season and with this race really not coming up overly tough he’s likely to be the favourite to get his third consecutive win. The #7 ORGANIST is another (like Alert N Wise) that was caught up on a fast pace at the $25,000 level and should appreciate a slower early tempo that is likely to be set in this dash which will give him a shot to win.
Race #10
1st - #2 Mahaty Jo | 2nd - #9 No More Sorries | 3rd - #8 Mocha Time
COMMENTARY : The #2 MAHATY JO looked impressive in breaking her maiden a couple of weeks back and is one that could continue to improve; she’s lightly raced and hasn’t been an overly tough assignment today so I like her to repeat. The #9 NO MORE SORRIES defeated $15,000 maidens and surprisingly resurfaces for in this non-two for $8,000 with older mares; there is a threat of a contested pace which would make her a presence felt in the stretch again today. The #8 MOCHA TIME battled gamely in her first start and held well to be second and if she can avoid a pace duel today she has a shot to win.
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