Mike's Race Analysis May 10, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #8 Liberty Jack | 2nd  -  #2 Southern Miracle | 3rd   -  #1 Time For Tipping 

COMMENTARY :  The #8 LIBERTY JACK raced in some very tough heats last year that produced numerous next-out winners so with his solid works and this dash seemingly easier I like him to win the money. The #2 SOUTHERN MIRACLE is from a barn that has been sending out 'live' first time starters of late and with this race really looking wide open he won't need to be a superstar to be a big factor. The #1 TIME FOR TIPPING has some troubles at the gate in his '08 debut and if he can get some luck he has a shot as well; sharp work (47.80) since his last race. 

Race #2

1st   -  #5 Olympic Dawn | 2nd  -  #1 Mocha Time | 3rd   -  #4 Dancer's Halo 

COMMENTARY :  The #5 OLYMPIC DAWN should be tough to beat today after her narrow loss on opening day; the final time was good so if she repeats that race she's likely to take home the winners' cheque. The #1 MOCHA TIME has excellent speed and the rail as well as the talent to beat this group; she never got on track last season after starting the year in Calgary so I'm willing to give her a shot. The #4 DANCER'S HALO ran well to be third in her first start of the year, she has a better post for her style and could get the money if the top two get a little careless on the head end.   

Race #3

1st   -  #2 Mining Interactive | 2nd  -  #5 Kokeeno | 3rd   -  #8 Wanna Be Foxy 

COMMENTARY :  The #2 MINING INTERACTIVE didn't miss the board in her five starts without blinkers last year so with a solid work tab under her and leading rider in the tack she should be tough to outrun. The #5 KOKEENO has the best chance to beat my top pick, trainer Brian O'Connell had this filly in good form throughout last year and with her works looking good as well she should round out a popular EXACTOR. The #8 WANNA BE FOXY might be a bit better going longer distances but even sprinting she still looks as good as anything else for the TRIACTOR and SUPERFECTA.

Race #4

1st   -  #2 Not Just Dreaming | 2nd  -  #8 E Commerce | 3rd   -  #7 Classy Vixen 

COMMENTARY :  The #2 NOT JUST DREAMING had to endure a four wide journey and still almost got up for the win; she moves inside today and as long as she gets clear sailing she should be dangerous again this afternoon. The #8 E COMMERCE tried the $15,000 mares in her first start this year and lost interest quickly in that dash; she's aggressively spotted down at the $5,000 level where she earned all three of her four wins in 2007. The #7 CLASSY VIXEN just missed in her '08 debut after battling on the pace; the connections have opted to remove the blinkers so we'll see how that impacts her performance today.  

Race #5

1st   -  #2 Artic Star | 2nd  -  #4 Afleet Allstar | 3rd   -  #8 Mr. Gobetween 

COMMENTARY : The #2 ARTIC STAR has the very important experience edge on a lot of talented colts in this maiden heat; he was outrun by a promising one in his latest in a quick time and it's likely to take a huge run from someone to beat him again; strictly the one to beat. The #4 AFLEET ALLSTAR has from a strong rider/trainer combo (49%) and he's looked very good in his morning trials so he obviously must be respected. The #8 MR. GOBETWEEN didn't run to the hype in his first start (sales topper that cost $120,000) but I'm not going to give up on him just yet, he's come back to work very smartly (1:00.40) and is likely to bounce back with a much better effort.

Race #6

1st   -  #7 Ebonys Silver Star | 2nd  -  #5 Devil's Eclipse | 3rd   -  #4 Grace's Star 

COMMENTARY :  There was quite a bit of jockey shuffling among the top four mares in this one which is unusual considering all four mares ran well with their respective pilots but I pretty much disregarded all the moves and stuck to who I think ran the best. The #7 EBONYS SILVER STAR battled needlessly on a lively pace on opening day which caused her to get beat in deep stretch; she's likely to be rated just off the leaders today which should get her a better result. The #5 DEVIL'S ECLIPSE battled gamely on the lead in her first race in nearly two years and if that effort didn't exhaust her too much then she'll be a big factor again today. The #4 GRACE'S STAR took advantage of a hotly contested pace and flew from off-the-pace to win her '08 debut; I don't see the pace being as contested today which will make things tougher on her.  

Race #7  

1st   -  #7 Taylor's Route | 2nd  -  #2 Nineleventurbo | 3rd   -  #3 Act Of God 

COMMENTARY :  The #7 TAYLOR'S ROUTE cruised to an easy win against $25,000 claimers two weeks ago so with him entered right back at the same price he's going to be tough; he's probably going to get the lead without too much pressure so it'll be real task for anyone to catch him today. The #2 NINELEVENTURBO is a solid campaigner that sprints very well and if the race sets up the right way he can beat my top pick. The #3 ACT OF GOD resurfaces for a mere $25,000 after winning an allowance race to close out 2007 which is alarming to say the least; he obviously has a class edge but this doesn't look to be his best distance at all which is why I've left him in the third spot. 

Race #8

1st   -  #1 Holy Nova | 2nd  -  #5 Wind Storm | 3rd   -  #6 Pat of Gold 

COMMENTARY :  The #1 HOLY NOVA has been very impressive since being purchased last summer in hopes of running in the B.C. Oaks but those plans were foiled when she came up with an eye injury soon after arriving in Vancouver. She showcased her talent at Golden Gate this winter winning two allowance heats over some very accomplished mares; she's trained beautifully and as long as the inside post doesn't pose too much of a problem then I like her to get the victory. The #5 WIND STORM is a very talented filly that won her last three sprint races in 2007 and judging by her work tab she looks ready for a top effort and looks to be the main danger to the #1 HOLY NOVA. The #6 PAT OF GOLD is a versatile filly that didn't have much in the way of luck last year or she would have doubled her earnings. She's another that has worked smartly for this dash and has the potential to cause a bit of an upset. This is an excellent race that shows the depth of the filly and mare division - the balance of the field includes stakes winners Alpine Garden,Suva and Napa as well as multiple allowance winner Yoorock Gal (only one in the race to defeat Holy Nova) and the sharp Tamarinda so this race is far from an easy one for any horse.

Race #9