Mike's Race Analysis June 7, 2008

Race #1

1st - #3 Serafina Lady | 2nd - #5 Smokin Danielle | 3rd - #1 Miss Me Not

COMMENTARY : The #3 SERAFINA LADY chased a hot pace in her last and just failed to last but with other speed in the lineup I expect her to let the speed go early and sit the trip just off of the pace so I like her chances if she’s ridden that way. The #5 SMOKIN DANIELLE was allowed to set a very comfortable early tempo in her latest and she won without really being threatened; she’s up in class today and will have to fight a lot harder to get the lead although as sharp as she is she may be able to hang on setting a quick pace. The #1 MISS ME NOT ran a better-than-looked race in her comebacker and with the threat of a contested pace she must be given strong consideration.

Race #2

1st - #1 Entry | 2nd - #5 Lady Preacher | 3rd - #7 Irish Delta

COMMENTARY : The #1 HEX turned in a big effort finishing second in a quick heat at this same tag and with her likely to get the lead to herself she’ll be tough to beat. The #5 LADY PREACHER had a rough go in her debut getting impeded going into the first turn costing her position but I like the way she fought back to get the runner-up spot. She gets Lasix today and with a clean trip could threaten my top pick. The #7 IRISH DELTA was a bit fractious in the gate in her latest and really didn’t run to the best of her ability; she’s dropping out of a no-tag maiden event and if she can put it all together she has a big shot of winning as well.

Race #3

1st - #6 Agent Blue | 2nd - #7 Boxcars | 3rd - #2 Entry

COMMENTARY : The #6 AGENT BLUE exits a very ‘live’ dash in which he ran fourth despite getting intimidated a bit on the rail; he moves out to gate four which will help and also helping is him dropping down to the bottom level for two year olds. The #7 BOXCARS was very fast leaving the gate but wasn’t quick enough to stay with the eventual winner; she’s down in price as well and is obviously very ‘live’ in the spot. The #2 ENTREGA TOTAL has a couple of decent works for a barn that has sent out some nice two year olds and her entry-mate #2B EL PERRO NEGRO will get Lasix and blinkers for his second start so we could see some improvement for him.

Race #4

1st - #6 Stylen Jaynee | 2nd - #2 Private Action | 3rd - #1 Serengeti Sunrise

COMMENTARY : The #6 STYLEN JAYNEE had a tough trip in her last as the 9-5 favourite and wound up a distant third but against this group all she’ll need is a better journey and she’ll be tough to beat. The #2 PRIVATE ACTION brings a solid morning work tab for her debut and considering this race didn’t come up too tough she has a good chance to win first time out. The #1 SERENGETI SUNRISE had a perfect trip gliding up the rail to defeat $8,000 maidens in her last but was later disqualified; the time was decent but this is a tougher group and unless she gets another cushy trip then I think she’ll wind up third or fourth.

Race #5

1st - #1 Lacey Camisole | 2nd - #3 Rockahula Miss | 3rd - #8 Miss Innervision

COMMENTARY : The #1 LACEY CAMISOLE was squeezed out leaving the gate (costing her about six lengths) in her debut and never did get into the race; she’ll get blinkers and an easier group of $5,000 maidens which I think will lead to a good showing at decent odds. The #3 ROCKAHULA MISS checked in a no-threat second in her last and will undoubtedly win a race soon but with her likely to be a short price again she’s always one to try and beat so I’ll leave her in the second spot. The #8 MISS INNERVISION led to the stretch in her most recent race (which was her first on the Lasix program) and tired late to finish third; she has to run a bit farther today and there is other speed in the race so she’ll need to be better if she’s to win.

Race #6

1st - #5 Sheisrough | 2nd - #4 E Commerce | 3rd - #1 Paradise Cruiser

COMMENTARY : The #5 SHEISROUGH defeated similar two weeks back but had her number taken down in a tough decision; she has a good draw for her style and if she’s as good as she was that day she should get a much deserved win. The #4 E COMMERCE was the one impeded (although she gets out in her races and was trying to get out of that tight spot) which cost her position. She’s drawn inside (just like two weeks ago) the #5 SHEISROUGH so it’ll be interesting to see how she’s ridden (take back early and get to the outside or send hard and hold the rail) either way she’s ‘live’ in this heat. The #1 PARADISE CRUISER tackled tougher mares in her first start of the season and finished in mid-pack; I think she’ll be more of a factor especially if the top two get into a heated battle for the lead.

Race #7

1st - #6 Yukon Doris | 2nd - #5 Sinibix | 3rd - #4 Premier's Best

COMMENTARY : The #7 YUKON DORIS battled out wide on a fast pace with much tougher last time so with her down to the bottom claiming bracket I think she’ll be a major threat. The #5 SINIBIX took the blinkers off and just missed in her last losing by a nose although the time was quite slow; there could be a contested pace to help out her off-the-pace style. The #4 PREMIER’S BEST was in very tight on the rail going into the first turn and checked sharply costing her five or six lengths so her race is better than it appears and I’ll give her another shot today.

Race #8

1st - #2 When In Rome | 2nd - #4 Paulswithdavid | 3rd - #3 Good Bad N Ugly

COMMENTARY : The #2 WHEN IN ROME stumbled at the start in his Hastings debut then race four wide through the final quarter-mile to finish up fourth behind a very sharp SOLDIERS RETURN (won three in a row). He’s dropping in price from $20,000 to $11,000 and if he can work out a good trip from the rail then I like him to win it. The #4 PAULSWITHDAVID raced very gamely in his ’08 debut turning back all challenges to win in a good time with slightly easier and if that race didn’t take too much out of him then he has a great shot to repeat. The #3 GOOD BAD N UGLY was a comfortable winner over conditional $8,000 claimers which was his first race in over a year; sharp work, leading rider stays on board – beware.

Race #9

1st - #1 Sir Gallovic | 2nd - #2 Bank Emblem | 3rd - #3 Spaghetti Mouse

COMMENTARY : The #1 SIR GALLOVIC was given a lot to do in his comeback race as he was sent up four deep on the first turn then carried on in the three path down the backside so it was no surprise to see him a little tired in the closing stages of his first race in six months. He’s the best horse in the lineup and stretches out to a better distance for him as well and the only tricky test for Gutierrez will be to get him off the rail and in the clear. The #2 BANK EMBLEM has won at this trip in the past (against $16,000 claimers) and is razor sharp; he’s really taken to our Hastings oval so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in his first start (claimed last time for $50,000) for his new connections. The #3 SPAGHETTI MOUSE usually gets good about this time of year but with all the speed they’ve got into him now I’m not sure how he’s going to do going long.

Race #10

1st - #4 Cahill Casey | 2nd - #6 Go Strider | 3rd - #8 Service Ribbon

COMMENTARY : The #4 CAHILL CASEY missed the break and raced wide in her first start back checking in a well beaten seventh; she’s in with far easier competition and sports a sharp work so I’ll hope she breaks better and take her to win it. The #6 GO STRIDER is aggressively spotted for her ’08 debut, she has speed and some solid morning trials so she’ll be tough in this spot as well. The #8 SERVICE RIBBON is in with easier today and is another with sharp works in preparation for this dash.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY BELMONT DAY AT HASTINGS !!!