Mike's Race Analysis June 29, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #4 Wanna Be Silver | 2nd  -  #7 Answerwithvictory | 3rd  -  #6 Lady Preacher 

COMMENTARY : The #4 WANNA BE SILVER just missed in her ‘08 debut with slightly better fillies; she hasn’t missed the board in brief career around two turns and with leading rider in the irons I like her chances of keeping that record in tact. The #7 ANSWERWITHVICTORY was sent pretty hard for the lead last time and I don’t think she really wanted to be near the pace and she faltered badly in the late going; she gets a blinker change, easier opponents and with Wilson up I’d expect her to be trying to come from off the pace. The #6 LADY PREACHER regressed with the addition of Lasix in her last but does drop back to the level where she earned a runner-up cheque.

Race #2

1st   -  #6 Mountain County | 2nd  -  #5 Brave Irish | 3rd   -  #1 Last Marker 

COMMENTARY : The #6 MOUNTAIN COUNTY is facing by far his easiest test of his career and if his pedigree holds true he’ll have no troubles with this longer trip. The #5 BRAVE IRISH is another that should get better as the distances get longer and with leading rider showing up I have to give him a strong chance in this soft spot. The #1 LAST MARKER didn’t seem to care much for the ‘off’ track conditions last time but with a fast track looming he should be more of a factor today.

Race #3

1st   -  #5 What R The Odds | 2nd  -  #4 Seashell | 3rd  -  #1 Critical Choice 

COMMENTARY : The #5 WHAT R THE ODDS is the logical play off of his runner-up effort in a quick heat at this same trip; she’s come back with an amazing work (59.60) for a baby and if that didn’t empty her out then she should win the money. The #4 SEASHELL has a nice work tab and has a solid pedigree so it would be no surprise to see this one threaten for the win. The #1 CRITICAL CHOICE  finished just in behind my top pick in her debut and if she can overcome the tricky inside post then she has a shot as well.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #2 KNIGHT’S ALLSTAR is aggressively spotted down at this $8,000 level today after a no-threat performance with no-tag maidens. I have to respect the fact that the connections liked her enough to run her that high so I think she should be able to beat this crew. The #4 STYLEN JAYNEE didn’t have much of a trip with pricier maidens last time but with a better post and a sharp work I think she’ll get back on track today. The #6 TALENTED TANA did everything right in her debut closing up well in the stretch to get second money; the final time wasn’t fast but she obviously has the potential to improve.

Race #5

1st   -  #8 Lion Bill | 2nd  -  #4 True Colour | 3rd  -  #2 Dr. J.C. 

COMMENTARY : The #8 LION BILL turned in a big performance in his last run at this same level and distance finishing second after yielding the lead at the far turn; he shouldn’t have to work overly hard for the early lead so I like him to get a wire-to-wire victory. The #4 TRUE COLOUR causes a lot of his own problems which have led to his poor showings of late but down at this level even if he makes some mistakes I think he can still threaten for the win. The #2 DR. J.C. had every shot to win his last but hung badly after making a bold move down the backstretch and faded to third; he still has a good chance if he can rate a little kinder.

Race #6

COMMENTARY : The #2 HEART TO SPARE is taking a big class drop and looks like the inside speed which was enough for me to take her in this form-less race. The #8 MINING INTERACTIVE will make a blinker change today and I’ll gamble that she improves enough to be a factor in the stretch. The #6 STELLA STELLA was really never in contention in her first run after the claim but does take a much easier task this afternoon; she has a sharp work (48.80) so perhaps better is in store for her.

Race #7

COMMENTARY : The #2 INCLUDE THE GRAND was a little too sharp early in her first try going long here at Hastings and faded in the final quarter-mile to end up third. That race should set her up for a top effort sprinting today. The #3 GRAYROSS GAL is usually pretty tough at this level and she showed that in her latest run as she earned a hard fought win over the #5YOU’REJUSTLIKEME; her versatility gives her a big edge in this race that could set up a few different ways. The #4 BADGETT’S STAR has beaten most of these in the past and got a little confidence builder beating up on $8,000 mares last time out; very consistent and reliable.

Race #8

1st   -  #7 Rin Chan | 2nd   -  #8 Nor’west Secret | 3rd   -  #6 Yukon Doris 

COMMENTARY : The #7 RIN CHAN has found an excellent spot to debut for a high percentage duo (Gutierrez/Jordan) she brings in a solid work tab and looks ‘live’ at first asking. The #8 NOR’WEST SECRET was well-backed in her debut and ran greenly early but she’ll be fitted in a set of blinkers this afternoon so we should see a much better showing from her. The #6 YUKON DORIS has speed and has pretty much shown everyone how good she is; if the top two don’t do well today then she’ll likely win but either way she’s still a solid one for the exotics.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON AT THE RACES !!!