Mike's Race Analysis June 14, 2008

Race #1

COMMENTARY :  The #5 MAZEL STAR was very impressive in her '08 debut as she held well for second after being sent hard through a very demanding opening half-mile; she has leading rider, a better post and should get the lead a lot easier today so I think she'll stay this time. The #6 KNIGHT'S ALLSTAR is an interesting first time starter that has an excellent work tab and comes from a barn that sends them out ready so she looks like the main threat. The #4 ANSWERWITHVICTORY had a rough journey in her career debut which caused her to finish quite far back in the end but with a better post and a race under her belt I expect her to improve a lot today. VALUE HORSE !!

Race #2

1st   -  #2 Reckless Wind | 2nd  -  #4 Sunrise Serenade | 3rd   -  #5 Ruthwell 

COMMENTARY :  The #2 RECKLESS WIND was claimed for $15,000 out of his Hastings debut and resurfaces down at this $5,000 level which makes him tough to gauge; I'll pick him but he looks like one that'll win by five or run last - strictly a guessing game with him. The #4 SUNRISE SERENADE had an unlucky trip last time as he had no racing room from the quarter-pole until mid-stretch and really wasn't persevered with in the closing stages. He's better at this longer trip anyways so I think he's worth following back today; could be a nice price!! The #5 RUTHWELL was sent pretty hard to get the lead at this distance last time out so he had to get tired; he'll likely be ridden with a lot less aggression early this time which will give him a good chance of hitting the board with this group.

Race #3

COMMENTARY :  The #5 CHERRY COSMO has been running well with a lot tougher maidens down in Northern Cal and even though she's up in price this is an easier assignment for her so I think she'll be tough to beat in this spot. The #7 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE should get a nice trip in behind the speed and if the early pace is contested she looks like the best 'closer' in the lineup; she's had a lot of chances but she's one of the more talented fillies. The #9 BABA ZULA was part of a 'demolition derby' going into the first turn last time and it cost her any shot of winning as she was squeezed out and impeded costing her position so I thought she did well to get fourth money; she has a tricky post but if she can get a decent trip then she could be a big factor as well.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #5 LA VELOZ looks like the type that will appreciate a little more ground (by Alfaari) and her form has been as good as anyone's so I'll take her. The #4 COMET SEVEN is a hard trying filly that has pay cheques in all three of her starts this season; she's taking a slight dip in price and is another that is bred to stay the trip. The #7 TRIALNTRIBULATION has been one-paced is her sprints this year so this new trip might be what she needs to get a victory; gets leading rider and easier company. 

Race #5

1st   -  #10 Superior Straits | 2nd  -  #5   Lord Kaiser | 3rd   -  #11 Buckaroo Lou

COMMENTARY :  The #10 SUPERIOR STRAITS turned in a better than expected effort sprinting and now stretches out to his best distance; there appears to be a fair amount of early speed signed on so I like his chances today. The #5 LORD KAISER is the best horse in the race but he still has to prove that he can handle this longer trip. The #11 BUCKAROO LOU turned in a sharp effort in his latest winning a sprint with the non-two's for $8,000; he has run well at this distance in the past so if Gutierrez can weave some magic and get him into a decent spot early then he has a shot as well. TOUGH RACE - Superfecta could pay a ton !!

Race #6

1st   -  #2 Spirit Bear | 2nd  -  #1 Roaring Wind | 3rd   -  #5 Brave Irish

COMMENTARY :  I'll try the #2 SPIRIT BEAR one more time as he hits the bottom maiden claiming level; he exits a 'live' heat and appears to be the best speed so I'll gamble that he'll finally run to those fast works and get a win. The #1 ROARING WIND ran well against a tougher group of maidens last time and with a pace duel looking likely if he repeats his last race that might be good enough to win at this price. The #5 BRAVE IRISH is exiting the same race as the #1 ROARING WIND and considering it was only his first race of the year he should improve this afternoon; gets leading rider.

Race #7

1st   -  #9 Badgett's Star | 2nd  -  #6 Selina's Mask | 3rd   -  #7 Amber Morn 

COMMENTARY :  The #9 BADGETT'S STAR cuts her price nearly in half after a defeat as the favourite for $15,000; there is other speed in here so she'll need to be near her best to win. The #6 SELINA'S MASK was a little too close to a fast pace in her latest so I expect her to be taken farther back off the pace and if she gets a contested pace then she could be a factor in the late going. The #7 AMBER MORN ran a bit better in her last and is another that could take advantage of a quick early pace.    

Race #8

COMMENTARY :  The #7 RESIDENT AUTHORITY looked very good in his win with slightly easier sprinting two weeks back; he's up in price (but has handled this type in the past) and gets to stretch out to a trip that he enjoys. The #10 AGRO has been in good form (a win and a fourth) this year and if he can handle his tough post assignment he has a strong chance as well. The #1 ALEXANDERSRUN looks like the better half of the #1 ENTRY off of his third at the $25,000 tag; the race served its purpose to shake off a little rust and get him set up to run long so with the rail he should get a good trip and be a major threat. 

Race #9

COMMENTARY : The #8 SOLDIERS RETURN is simply a 'monster' this year as he's racked up three easy wins for two different barns and will make his first start for yet another outfit. he's drawn beautifully for the way this race is going to set up and even though he's up for $35,000 he's going to be double-tough again today. The #4 GOLDEN PURSUIT is a classy dude that is better going long but he's shown that he can sprint in the past (ran well behind a slow pace in his comeback race) and with the threat of a quick pace he could catch a lot (maybe all of them) of them in the lane. The #7 VICTIM OF LOVE is extremely fast and has been working very quickly in the a.m. as he prepares for his first start of the season; he knows how to win (11 for 26 lifetime) races - beware !!

Race #10

1st   -  #9 Rainbow Dash | 2nd  -  #3 Sovereign Charmer | 3rd   -  #4 Mountain County 

COMMENTARY :  The #9 RAINBOW DASH couldn't catch a runaway leader in his last but ended up a clear second; he should get a good trip sitting just off of the early leaders and a repeat performance could get him the money. The #3 SOVEREIGN CHARMER wasn't away all that well last time from the rail and never seemed comfortable; he's better than that race shows and I'll give him another shot today as he gets off the rail. The #4 MOUNTAIN COUNTY is taking a big drop in class and gets a far better post so he should be a big threat in this heat. 

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!!