Mike's Race Analysis July 6, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #1 Diamond Quest | 2nd  -  #2 El Perro Negro | 3rd   -  #5 Devilish Roo 

COMMENTARY : The #1 DIAMOND QUEST wasn’t fast enough to win at the short nursery course distance but stretching out to six panels and easier company should be the recipe he needs for a victory this afternoon. The #2 EL PERRO NEGRO gets a blinker change and a new distance and sports a decent work for today’s race so I think he’ll improve a lot and be a factor this time. The #5 DEVILISH ROO is one of two fillies in the lineup; she ran okay in her debut which better company and is another that has a decent prep so I’ll put her in for third.

Race #2

1st   -  #2 Kirschgarten | 2nd  -  #5 Private Action | 3rd   -  #3 P.S. Miss G I 

COMMENTARY : The #2 KIRSCHGARTEN has worked smartly of late and finds a very soft spot for her ’08 debut. The #5 PRIVATE ACTION will add blinkers for her first run for her new connections; she pulled in her debut but has worked well and should give a better account of herself today. The #3 P.S. MISS G I takes a little dip in price and looks like the lone speed which will make her dangerous.

Race #3

COMMENTARY : The #1 BILLY GHOST has run well in both his starts and won’t need to improve too much to best this soft looking maiden $15,000 group; adds blinkers. The #7 DUAL SESSION is the logical play off of his two runner-up efforts at this level; he has speed and if left alone could get that first win. The #2 TRIBUNAL MAN gets an easier test today after a getting beat up on the pace in a couple tough high end maiden races; the blinkers come off today so they may wish to get him to rate just off of the leaders either way he’ll be a factor against this lesser group.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #1 HEX earned a hard fought victory battling on the pace throughout over two next out winners; she ahs the rail and should control the tempo and if she doesn’t stay the trip then she has a capable entry-mate in the #1a ARCHERY who had a troubled trip last time with better company. The #5 CAROLYN’S MONARCH also had a tough trip in her last which caused her to finish fourth; she gets in with her own age group and should get a nice trip stalking the leaders. The #2 DANCING MELODY has been freshened up and is working well for her return she is taking a big class drop so she deserves respect as well with these gals.

Race #5

COMMENTARY : The #2 CLYDEJA wasn’t disgraced in her last which was a race in which she rated behind the speed and ran on evenly; I think she’ll go right to the front in this dash and take advantage of her inside post and could prove tough to catch. The #5 SILVER BARRAGE was on a mission last time being sent very hard to battle with the eventual winner WW Turbo and with all that considered she did well to hold the runner-up spot; he’ll be dangerous today with easier early fractions. The #1 EXPLODING hasn’t really run a bad race this year and just seems like an unlucky that gets into the tougher non-two $8,000 claimers; this one has come up a lot easier so I’m sure he’ll be a big presence in the stretch.

Race #6

COMMENTARY : The #1 RICH DEBUT will remove blinkers today and I’ll gamble that she gets a perfect trip sitting in behind the two speed fillies and pops oout late for the win. The #2 THAT CAHILL KNIGHT has been good since coming down to this level and if she can avoid a pace duel with the #3 E COMMERCE then she has a good shot to get her first win of the year. The #3E COMMERCE hasn’t been as effective this year but still can win at this price; definitely top three material.

Race #7

COMMENTARY : The # WINDY DAY just finished beating a similar group at this distance three weeks back and with this race not really coming up any tougher he should carry on with his winning streak. The #5 P S COMMANDER has been a pleasant surprise this year and just missed defeating my top pick last time; he should be in a good spot early so he will get first run on the #3 WINDY DAY and has the best shot to pull off a minor upset. The #6 AGRO gets a better post and is reunited with his winning pilot so we should see a better performance from him today. 

Race #8

1st   -  #2 Star Prospector | 2nd   -  #4 Road Risk | 3rd   -  #6 Krazy Koffee 

COMMENTARY : The #2 STAR PROSPECTOR is a solid horse that always runs well, he’s versatile in his running styles and can run any distance which is the sign a good one. This race isn’t any tougher than the last so I like him to win again at a short price. The #4 ROAD RISK is an improving type that could be the ‘value’ play and I like him in his second try and this mile and a sixteenth trip. The #6 KRAZY KOFFEE has won half of his career starts and ran very well to win an allowance event at this distance two weeks ago; he’s another that is continues to get better so he deserves respect in this one as well. 

Race #9

1st   -  #1 Up Sweep | 2nd   - #6 Quickens | 3rd   -  #7 Go Strider 

COMMENTARY : The #1 UP SWEEP drops into a nice spot this afternoon and with the threat of a pace duel she should be tough to hold off in the stretch. The #6 QUICKENS was much better in her second start getting a win over $8,000 maidens and if she continues to get better then she has a shot. The #7 GO STRIDER is in a tougher spot today than she was in on Saturday and must deal with the #2 HARRIETTE TOPPER on the head end. 

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!