Mike's Race Analysis July 27, 2008

Race #1

COMMENTARY : The #5 INCLUDE THE GRAND eked out a win sprinting with slightly cheaper company last weekend but with this race not coming up all that tough she has a big chance to repeat. The #1 SERVICE RIBBON has been much better since going in blinkers and crushed a field of conditional $8,000 claimers last time out; she’s bred to love this trip so don’t sell her short in this tougher spot. The #4 LAND OF SILVER will likely fall victim to a slow pace again today; she’s the most accomplished of the field at this distance but unless something happens on the head end pace-wise she will have to settle for run a minor award.

Race #2

COMMENTARY : The #2 DARK HALL has string of nice works and has the pedigree to be a quick one. The #4 JEANNIE LIZ has been second at this trip three times this year and this appears to be her easiest test to date so she obviously has a big chance; no value though. The #1 PEDEGRAL has a similar work tab and pedigree to my top pick and hails from a barn that is very good with their young stock.

Race #3

1st   -  #5 Sideline | 2nd  -  #4 Newton’s Rule | 3rd  -  #6 Fisherman’s Friend 

COMMENTARY : The #5 SIDELINE has found a very soft spot here and if he repeats any of his earlier sprint races this afternoon he’ll win for fun. The #4 NEWTON’S RULE has been running okay of late collecting minor pay cheques in each of last three starts since returning to Hastings; he has speed and will be in a good spot early so he looks like the logical EXACTOR play. The #6 FISHERMAN’S FRIEND has run a couple of decent races this year and with leading rider jumping on board I’ll give this guy a shot in the TRIACTOR’s.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #6 PUERTO MONTT has been in top form all season long and last time out he really had to earn the front end and still held well for second; today things look a lot easier for him and he’s likely to take them all the way on the lead. The #7 TOUGH TORQUE is another that has been consistent this year and with him likely to get a perfect trip sitting second behind my top pick he should stay on to complete the EXACTOR. The #1 LEGALLY MINE impressively bested a group of non-two $8,000 claimers despite a wide trip; he’s pinned down on the inside but if he can work out a decent trip then he has a shot to win again today. 

Race #5

1st   -  #8 Mining Interactive | 2nd  -  #6 Count Your Dreams | 3rd  -  #4 Wanna Be Foxy 

COMMENTARY : The #8 MINING INTERACTIVE was four wide throughout much of the opening half-mile last time and was still battling for the win at the wire which was very impressive; she has to get a better trip this afternoon and if she does she’ll be tough to catch. The #6 COUNT YOUR DREAMS ran alright in her return to Hastings getting third money despite a very wide final quarter-mile; she’ll probably be a little closer to the pace today and if she improves a bit then she has a big chance to win as well. The #4 WANNA BE FOXY is another that had a rough trip last time so with her getting an inside post she should be more of a factor.

Race #6

1st   -  #4 When In Rome | 2nd  -  #7 Swazi | 3rd  -  #6 Kinda Special 

COMMENTARY : The #4 WHEN IN ROME is taking a big plunge in price after a fifth place finish two weeks ago; he’s obviously a ton the best on paper but one must factor in why he’s down at this level and that he might not be as good as he has been this year; probable winner but be cautious !! The #7 SWAZI had a tough assignment last time as he had Californiatruegrit breathing down his neck; he has excellent speed and should find his way to the top without too much pressure and I think he’ll last a lot longer on the lead this afternoon. The #6 KINDA SPECIAL was back in at a better distance for him last time and he turned in a solid effort; he’s ‘live’ in this spot as well.

Race #7

1st   -  #4 Daymaker | 2nd  -  #5 Juvee Hall | 3rd  -  #1 Elegant Avie 

COMMENTARY : The #4 DAYMAKER is an impressive filly that has had a lot thrown at her in a short period of time and she’s responded well each time; she returns to a sprint today and should be tough to fend off in the stretch. The #5 JUVEE HALL beat my top pick last time in the $53,000 Supernaturel finishing second although the #4 DAYMAKER did get into a lot of trouble nearing the quarter-pole; “Juvee’ rated well back last time but she actually has decent gate speed and I think they’ll elect to use that speed today for position so she’ll have first run on her chief rival. The #1 ELEGANT AVIE draws a better post for her style and should run well enough to get in the top three.

Race #8

COMMENTARY : The #1 VICTIM OF LOVE looks to be the lone speed so with him likely controlling a comfortable lead he should be tough to catch. The #4 SLEW’S BOY should be in a good spot early sitting close to what should be slow pace and he should stay for a piece of the TRIACTOR. The #5 ANSWER THE CALL has been sharp of late running in longer races; he shortens up today but has run well at the distance in the past.  

Race #9

1st   -  #6 Roses And Lace | 2nd  -  #7 Saratoga Flame | 3rd  -  #4 Nor’west Secret 

COMMENTARY: The #6 ROSES AND LACE made a big turnaround in her last race breaking well and running gamely to the wire losing by only three lengths; she’ll benefit from that race and if she moves forward she’ll be tough to beat. The #7 SARATOGA FLAME gave a good account of herself in her first start of the season finishing a close third at this same level; strong chance today. The #4 NOR’WEST SECRET tried going long last time out and that experiment failed so she’s immediately returned to a sprint; she was a closing third in her last sprint try.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!