Mike's Race Analysis August 9, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #3 Socks On Socks Off | 2nd  -  #5 Patrom | 3rd  -  #4 A Real Storm 

COMMENTARY : The #3 SOCKS ON SOCKS OFF gained some experience in his first start six weeks back finishing a closing fourth at three and a half furlongs; he has three good works in preparation for this race that has come up pretty soft. The #5 PATROM has decent works and strong connections which is enough to make a strong case for this guy in this dash. The #4 A REAL STORM is by an impressive young stallion Storm Victory and is another that has good works so he’s worth a look.

Race #2

1st   -  #6 Harriette Topper | 2nd  -  #1 No More Sorries | 3rd  -  #3 In Vogue 

COMMENTARY : The #6 HARRIETTE TOPPER chased a sharp filly last time and wound up a close third; she should get the lead to herself in this spot and I think she’ll take them all the way. The #1 NO MORE SORRIES was sent hard for the lead last time out and it doesn’t appear that she wants to be ridden that way as she faded to be a non-factor with slightly tougher; she’s in with her own age group today and should get a good trip so I expect her to rebound with a better showing. The #3 IN VOGUE just got up to nip a longshot at the wire to save the chalk players a couple of weeks back; she’ll need to be better if she’s to repeat although I think she’s a cinch to be in the TRIACTOR.

Race #3

COMMENTARY : The #1 GOTTA FIND BUBBA has been very good since stretching out around two turns and only needs to repeat his last effort to win the money this afternoon. The #3 BRENNIVEN didn’t get the best of trips in his debut and is likely one that will improve today so if you’re looking to beat the favourite he’s the one. The #2 CIELO ROJO should’ve won her debut but she encountered road troubles in the stretch; she returns to maiden company after an unsuccessful try with stakes fillies but she is facing the boys.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #3 SMOKIN DANIELLE was smoking on Sunday morning as she got five-eighths in 59 flat signaling that she’s ready for her return to the races. She’s likely to get the same trip just off the speedy #2 TAMARINDA which did result in a win last time (later disqualified). The #4 WIND STORM has been banging heads with the top mares going long in her last two and performing well; she’ll undoubtedly appreciate the easier company as well as returning to a sprint. The #2 TAMARINDA is a rock solid mare that tries very hard from the gate to the wire; she’s likely to get pace pressure which is why I’ve left her in the third spot but if she can shake loose early – beware !!

Race #5

1st   -  #6 Quiet Edge | 2nd  -  #9 Hunter’s Lad | 3rd  -  #2 Acting Kat 

COMMENTARY : The #6 QUIET EDGE is taking a big class drop and if he can repeat any one of his last three races that will likely to be good enough to beat this crew. The #9 HUNTER’S LAD looks to be the main danger to my top pick, he was a solid runner-up in a good time in his most recent race and will be tough to fend off today. The #2 ACTING KAT is the next best on paper and should round out the top three.

Race #6

1st   -  #1 Rural Route | 2nd  -  #10 Ultraforce | 3rd  -  #9 Master Foolish 

COMMENTARY : The #1 RURAL ROUTE got caught up in traffic behind a very slow pace virtually eliminating him; his last sprint was alright and with all the speed in this one he looks like the best ‘closer’ in the field so I’ll take a shot on him. The #10 ULTRAFORCE was nailed in deep stretch by a first-time starter in an average time and with the outside post he’s going to need a lot of luck to win but he should in the top three. The #9 MASTER FOOLISH went a little better in blinkers last time and if he can settle just off the early leaders he has a shot but if he demands the lead he’s going to be a pace casualty again today.

Race #7

COMMENTARY : The #3 KERRISDALE COMET has been freshened up after a try a restricted stakes race back in June; any of his prior form will get him the money in this dash and with lots of speed signed on I really like his chances. The #4 W W TURBO is probably the fastest of the pace horses and if he can avoid a head-and-head pace duel then he has a shot as well. The #6 POSTMASTER GENERAL finishing a no-threat fourth at this same level last time despite getting a perfect setup which disappointed me a bit; he’s eligible to win but off of his last run I have leave him in the third spot.

Race #8

1st   -  #3 Annemariekathleen | 2nd  -  #5 Belle Cara | 3rd  -  #1 Notis Me 

COMMENTARY : The #3 ANNEMARIEKATHLEEN was a good third in her last with tougher maidens so with her down facing a pretty soft group I think she goes wire-to-wire. The #5 BELLE CARA is also exiting a pricier maiden race in which she finally showed some run and at least she has something to build on and I think she’ll continue to improve. The #1 NOTIS ME took a lot of early action in the wagering but popped and stopped in her debut; she’s better than that race showed and should be far more of a presence on the pace today.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAVE A GREAT DAY  !!!