Mike's Race Analysis August 31, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  # 7 W W Turbo | 2nd  -  #1 Lord Kaiser | 3rd  -  #4 Cielo’s lad 

COMMENTARY : The #7 W W TURBO is a need-the-lead type that will likely get that luxury this afternoon so I like his chances of staying on for the win at this reduced level. The #1 LORD KAISER just missed in his latest despite racing much of the trip in the three path; he’ll be saving ground today from the rail and is the one likely threat to my top pick in the late going. The #4 CIELO’S LAD has sprinted well in his last two and fits nicely with these even though it appears that he’s facing tougher because of the higher claiming price but that is not the case.

Race #2

COMMENTARY : The #4 JIMBO’S BOY has a string of sharp works for a barn that sends them out ready; hot rider and a good post should add up to a big performance today. The #5 RETURNOTIS is out of a very quick mare and has also been working impressively so he deserves a look as well. The #7 MAXI CHIP is out of a Danzig mare and that line has crossed well with Yoonevano in the past; works are decent and this one may be the ‘Value play’

Race #3

COMMENTARY : Both the #1 JUSTIFIABLY and the #1a TROUBLE SHOOTER come into this race off of their best efforts of the season and I think they form a strong one-two punch in this one. The # DR. J. C. has been knocking at the door threatening to win a race but just can’t seem to break through; he should get a good trip sitting close to what will likely be a slow early pace so once again he’ll be in a great striking position to win. The #5 SCOTS PINE ran a better-than-looked race last time as he was out of the lead then drifted back and actually came on well nearing the end so with the pace scenario looking favourable for him he has a strong chance as well.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #6 MOCHA TIME has been chasing some fast fractions in her last couple and finishing well but it appears that she’ll get the early lead today without really being used so I like her to take this group wire-to-wire. The #8 SINGING ALONG is down in class looking for a win and if she can work out a decent trip from her outside gate she’s definitely the one to beat. The #1 CHIANTI DANCER gets the rail in this pace-less race and might be able to control things early which would obviously enhance her chances today.

Race #5

COMMENTARY : The #2 BLACK JAG gets an easier assignment today after competing with tougher maidens in his first two starts this year; the kind of speed he’s been showing in those tougher races could put him on the early lead with this kind and he’ll be tough to catch if he does find the front end. The #10 SHADOW TAMER has been solid in his last three races and is definitely sitting on a win; the outside post might turn out to be a blessing as Perez will have a few more tactical options from this post and he appears to be a horse that likes to race on the outside anyways so he rates a big shot; ‘very live’ and should have some value as well. The #7 TRIBUNAL MAN had every opportunity to win last time but settled for second; this race has come up tougher and with him probably being the favourite for me he’s one to play against.

Race #6

COMMENTARY : The #3 COLONDELIVERY just finished beating a similar field last time with an awkward trip so there’s really no reason to go against him. The #1 WINDY DAY had a perfect trip on the inside although he did make premature move and hung late but with a better timed move he’s the one most likely to turn the tables on my top pick. The #2 JOYRIDE had a good trip last time and finished second so he’s TRIACTOR threat again; the off-track conditions move him up a lot so I’ll rate him higher in this spot if the rains come.

Race #7

COMMENTARY : The #1 Entry of BAD SNEAKERS and the #1a PEACEFUL TURZIA look very good in this dash especially with numerous speed types in this one and their off-the-pace styles will come in handy this afternoon. The #4 SLEW’S BOY might get a nice trip sitting just in behind the dueling leaders and could get first run on the #1 Entry; he’s razor sharp right now. The #8 THE VISUALISER is the one that I think will go the farthest of the pace horses; he returns to a sprint and faces easier.

Race #8

1st   -  #2 Forest Prince | 2nd  -  #1 Krazy Koffee | 3rd  -  #4 Valdero 

COMMENTARY : I was really impressed with the #2 FOREST PRINCE last time as he defeated an accomplished field of older horses going this distance two weeks ago stamping himself as a Derby threat. He seems versatile enough so I think he’ll land in a good spot early which will give him every shot to win; he’ll get a new pilot today as (I’m guessing that Hoverson will stay committed to Texas Wildcatter- 2nd in the Canadian Derby) which is why the connections need to get someone new on him that will ride him in the BC Derby in three weeks time. The #1` KRAZY KOFFEE has done everything asked of him this year and has improved with each and every start; he has back-to-back stakes victories and he too will get a new pilot today as Dave Wilson will jump aboard. He has excellent tactical speed which will allow him to stay in close contact with his main competition the #2 FOREST PRINCE. The #4 VALDERO jus missed sprinting in his last but still has to prove himself at this distance; he’s still the best of the rest.   

Race #9

COMMENTARY : The #10 CRAFTY TRIBUTE has run well in both of her starts this year against tougher maiden company and even though she has a tricky post I think she has enough speed to get herself in position to win with this group. The #2 SUNRISE FINALE cost herself four lengths at the start last time and managed to close up nicely in the final quarter-mile to get third money; she could threaten with a better beginning. The #4 GEMINI CHANCE checked in second after a three wide trip which was a good effort and if she repeats that one she could be tough to catch this time. 

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