Mike's Race Analysis August 3, 2008

Race #1

1st   -  #5 Wildwood Spring | 2nd  -  #1 Entry | 3rd  -  #4 Tatura Lad

COMMENTARY : The #5 WILDWOOD SPRING has an impressive string of works for his debut and if he breaks with the field he shouldn’t get beat. The #1 ENTRY of #1 DEVIL’S ATTIRE and the #1a FASHIONABLE AFFAIR hail from a top barn that has sent out many ‘live’ first time starters. The #4 TATURA LAD is out of a mare that was very quick and judging by his morning trials he has a lot speed himself so he’s another to watch in this dash.

Race #2

COMMENTARY : The #7 VINTNER is a versatile type that should be tough in this spot as he faces many of the ones he beat two weeks back. The #1 BUCKAROO LOU has two runner-up efforts going long this year and with the rail he should be in a perfect striking position. The #2 KWIK’E MARK was bumped repeatedly at the start and was squeezed out early losing valuable position which he needs for his best results; if he gets away clean today he should be a major threat- he’s the ‘value’ play in this heat.

Race #3

COMMENTARY : The #2 MISTER LA ROCK has been in top form of late and with this dash having numerous need-the-lead types he should get an ideal setup which should lead him to the winner’s circle. The #3 AID AND ABET is lightly raced and is one eligible to improve so he deserves respect in this spot. The #8 SPIRIT BEAR was very impressive last tie out when he was loose on the lead but it doesn’t appear that he’ll get that fortunate again today although I think he last the longest of the pace horses.

Race #4

1st  -  #6 Knighthood | 2nd  - #3 Willie Katchem | 3rd  -  #4 Diamond Berries 

COMMENTARY : The #6 KNIGHTHOOD is bred to love this longer trip and with a strong sprint run under him last time he looks to be set up for a big run today. The #3 WILLIE KATCHEM has been in some tough spots this season and will undoubtedly appreciate this easier assignment; he gets leading rider and a light weight so I expect him to be a big factor this afternoon. The #4 DIAMOND BERRIES is the lone filly in the lineup that was obviously looking for a long race so with nothing filling with the girls she’s going to give the boys a go; she has a sharp work (59.80) and enters this race off of her best performance to date so I wouldn’t be surprised to see her threatening for the win.

Race #5

1st   -  #7 Zethar | 2nd  -  #4 Left To Chance | 3rd  -  #1 Trialntribulation 

COMMENTARY : The #7 ZETHAR just missed at this level last time out losing to a filly that made a big drop in class and she only needs to repeat that race to win this afternoon. The #4 LEFT TO CHANCE is making her seasonal debut and sports a series of good works which was enough for me to give her a shot in this dash. The #1 TRIALNTRIBULATION has the rail and should get a nice trip sitting just in behind the early leaders and I think she’ll stay for a piece of the TRIACTOR. Lets’ put in the #6 LUCILE’S STORM for the SUPERFECTA.

Race #6

COMMENTARY : The #5 WINFORUS looked good in breaking his maiden two weeks ago and he strikes me as one that we haven’t seen the best of as yet; there is the threat of pace duel so I think his strong off-the-pace move will get him the winner’s cheque again today. The #4 DYLAN’S PROSPECT is a suspect favourite that was scratched on parade a few weeks back but if he fires his A-race he’ll win the money; tough call ?? The #2 DUAL SESSION is taking a drop in price after being a pace casualty with $15,000 three year olds and if the quick turnaround doesn’t hurt him too much then he has a shot as well.

Race #7

1st   -  #6 Gondola | 2nd  -  #5 Miss Best Bet | 3rd  -  #2 Beautiful Breeze 

COMMENTARY : The #6 GONDOLA was a rabbit for her stable mate Daymaker in the $53,000 Supernaturel early last month which is why she was in that spot; she’s in a much better spot today and should be tough to catch. The #5 MISS BEST BET has been very good in her two starts this year and looks like the one to beat; she’ll get leading rider today and is definitely the main threat to my top pick. The #2 BEAUTIFUL BREEZE could get set up nicely today as there is the possibility of a pace duel materializing; she’s been prepping well for her return and even if she doesn’t get pace help I still like her to be in the top three.

Race #8

1st   -  #9 Gemini Style | 2nd  -  #4 Savahana | 3rd  -  #5 Miss Hap 

COMMENTARY : The #9 GEMINI STYLE is taking a huge plunge in class this afternoon and finds the easier half of the split (fifth race) of this maiden $5,000 race; she’s likely to clear early and get the lead so she’ll have every opportunity to win the money. The #4 SAVAHANA has improved with each race and finally gets decent post position after drawing the far outside in all four career starts. The #5 MISS HAP regressed last time out after such a good effort two starts back; I think with her sharp work (1:02) she’ll rebound with a better showing today. 

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND HAVE A GREAT DAY !!!!