Mike's Race Analysis August 17, 2008

Race #1

COMMENTARY : The #2 SWEET SWEET TAYLOR has found an easier spot today and after chasing the pace in her two prior runs at Hastings it appears that she’ll get to control the tempo and I think she’ll get brave and maintain the lead throughout. The #3 CHERRY COSMO is the most accomplished filly in the dash but must get back to her earlier form if she’s to win; strong threat if she can stay close to the pace. The #4 LIGHTNING FINISH has been off for a little over two months and with this race really not having much early speed in it her off-the-pace tactics will put her at a disadvantage.

Race #2

COMMENTARY : The #4 COMMODORE CRAIG plunges down to the bottom claiming level this afternoon after a sixth place run at the $15,000 price tag; he’ll be a heavy favourite - solid Key on all wagers. The #3 CIELO’S LAD ran an improved race when shortened up last time just missing to Alferrari; he’s the only one with a shot to knock off the ‘Commodore’. The #1 FISHERMAN’S FRIEND looks to be the best of the rest.

Race #3

1st   -  #1 The Visualiser | 2nd  -  #2 Ookashada | 3rd  -  #3 Forest Prince 

COMMENTARY : The #1 THE VISUALISER will likely get to set a sensible pace in his first try going long this year and he should be able to hold off the #2 OOKASHADA who returns to the $50,000 ranks (he won his last start for $50,000) after a try with the best older horses in the BC Cup Classic. The #3 FOREST PRINCE is a three year old taking on older company which is always a tough assignment; he’ll have the top two in his sights so we’ll see how good he is. He got up to win sprinting last time out but watching the race one could see that it really wasn’t his best distance and that he won on class alone; this trip will suit him to a tee.

Race #4

COMMENTARY : The #1 SULTRY EYES was re-claimed by the barn that gets to most run out of her and with them placing her down for $5,000 (not an unusual play for these connections) she’s going to be tough to hold off in the stretch. The #4 YOU’REJUSTLIKEME goes back in blinkers today after running poorly without them at the $111,000 level; she’s way down in class and should get the lead but she’ll need her best to beat the #1 SULTRY EYES. The #7 ALITTLEBITEXTRA should be able to pick off some runners late and get into the TRIACTOR.

Race #5

COMMENTARY : The #7 ASHESINTHEWIND has a couple of nice works in preparation for this dash and with him facing a lot easier competition I think he’ll be tough in this spot. The #1 DUAL SESSION loses his regular pilot to my top pick but picks up Alvarado who will put him on the lead from the rail; he just missed at this same tag last time and is a major threat again today. The #6 TRUE COLOUR is the best off-the-pace runner in the lineup and with many speed types in here he should get a great pace to run at.  

Race #6

1st   -  #6 Usher Inc. | 2nd  -  #1 Bangalow | 3rd  -  #2 Distorted Glamour 

COMMENTARY : The #6 USHER INC. was a distant runner-up to a sharp runaway leader in his latest run but with numerous speedsters signed on in this one I think he’ll get up in the stretch for the win. The #1 BANGALOW turned in a decent effort going long in his latest but he’s quickly returned to a sprint and if he can work his way off the rail he has a great shot as well. The #2 DISTORTED GLAMOUR is the speed of the race but is likely to get a lot of pace pressure which is why I’ve left him in the third spot.

Race #7

COMMENTARY : The #1 REGAL ISOLATION gets back in with his own age group after an excellent effort with older $35,000 optional claimers; he should get the lead in this one which will give him a big edge on his two chief rivals who are both drawn on the outside. The #7 VALDERO is obviously ‘live’ in this spot and will just need a decent trip to beat my top pick; he loses Mario Gutierrez (riding Lady Raj in Seattle) and picks up his younger brother Juan. The #6 RIGHT HONORABLE looked good in his comeback race as he turned in his best performance of the season; if he gets a decent trip he’ll be a big factor as well. Good competitive race !!

Race #8

1st   -  #2 Unspoken Thoughts | 2nd  -  #3 Athena County | 3rd  -  #5 Sunrise Finale 

COMMENTARY : The #2 UNSPOKEN THOUGHTS has been second in half of her starts this year and could finally get that elusive win today; she has speed and a good post which was enough for me to take her today. The #3 ATHENA COUNTY was much better in her last and if she continues to improve she’ll be tough in this maiden race. The #5 SUNRISE FINALE gets a lot easier assignment today after tackling some tougher maidens earlier this spring; she has some speed and will be in a good striking position which will give her a good shot to win this afternoon.  

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND ENJOY YOUR DAY AT THE RACES !!