Mike's Race Analysis September 3, 2007

Race #1

1st - #4 Earl's Diamond | 2nd - #3 Tango Mango | 3rd - #1 Commodore Craig

COMMENTARY : The #4 EARL'S DIAMOND scratched out of a race on Sunday in favour of this spot; he's been very good since returning to the races in his two sprints and if he repeats his latest effort he should be tough to beat. The #3 TANGO MANGO is down in price after a couple of solid races with some very tough company; he'll appreciate the easier task and his speed will make him dangerous. The #1 COMMODORE CRAIG seems to run his best races when he's on the outside but for the second time in a row he's drawn on the rail so it'll be difficult for him to get position again today.

Race #2

1st - #5 Allison's Tiger | 2nd - #3 W W Turbo | 3rd - #4 Sparklin Chrome

COMMENTARY : I was torn between the #3 W W TURBO and the #5 ALLISON'S TIGER and I ended up leaning towards the experienced #5 ALLISON'S TIGER who has a good race under his belt and will race on Lasix this afternoon. The latter has been working well (for the same barn) and will debut on Lasix. The #4 SPARKLIN CHROME closed up nicely in her first start and if she shows a little more interest leaving the gate then she could be a factor as well.

Race #3

1st - #1 Tough Torque | 2nd - #8 Dr. J.C. | 3rd - #7 Mister La Rock

COMMENTARY : The #1 TOUGH TORQUE is taking a huge dip in class after being a pace casualty (horse that won last time came back to win Saturday in an allowance event) for the second time this year; he'll get Lasix for the first time and if shows the same kind of speed at this level he won't have a horse breathing down his neck like he did last time so I like him to lead this group for a long way today. The #8 DR. J.C. is the best horse on paper and actually has a win but he was DQ'd that afternoon; the outside post is probably a blessing for him and if my top pick doesn't go all the way on head end then this guy is your likely winner. The #7 MISTER LA ROCK has some sparkling works in preparation for his career debut but one has to be suspicious why it's taken him this long to get to the races.

Race #4

1st - #5 Miss Vimy Ridge | 2nd - #3 Chamaca | 3rd - #1 Right To Race

COMMENTARY : The #5 MISS VIMY RIDGE has been much better since going on the Lasix program three starts back and with this field coming up very soft she looks like the one to beat. The #3 CHAMACA raced with slightly better earlier this year and with Lasix, a solid gate drill and leading rider in the tack she must be given strong consideration. The #1 RIGHT TO RACE seemed to be a bit better with the blinkers that were added in her latest; she lost ground early but from the rail she should get a better trip which should get her into the top three.

Race #5

1st - #4 Willie Katchem | 2nd - #7 Wannabe A Star | 3rd - #9 Brave Irish

COMMENTARY : The #4 WILLIE KATCHEM chased the pace in his last which was new for him and I like the way he got off of the rail at the eighth-pole and came back on to just miss getting second so all he'll need is a little luckier trip and I think he'll get the win. The #7 WANNABE A STAR closed up beautifully in his debut going three and a half furlongs to get the runner-up spot; he's worked well in prepping for his first two-turn try and to me he looks like a major threat. The #9 BRAVE IRISH had a rough trip in his debut as he squeezed out badly at the start then was moving with the eventual second finisher (#8 - Royal Hudson) but was carried out six or seven wide by a tiring pace-setter that bolted on the final turn so if he gets a decent trip he'll be heard from in the stretch and leading rider won't hurt his chances either.

Race #6

1st - #6 Area Code | 2nd - #8 Johney Brocc | 3rd - #1 Complicit Swiss

COMMENTARY : The #6 AREA CODE made an early move going long and hung late to finish third but he's a better sprinter than a distance horse so this cut back to a sprint should bring out a big performance from him. The #8 JOHNEY BROCC just missed in latest after battling hard on a quick pace; he's in with a little easier company but he'll still have to deal with a toughie in the #1 COMPLICIT SWISS on the head end. The latter barely eked out a win at this same level when he was loose on the lead which is something that likely won't happen today which is why I've left him in the third spot.

Race #7

1st - #4 Angelina B | 2nd - #6 Not Just Dreaming | 3rd - #7 E Commerce

COMMENTARY : The #4 ANGELINA B was a distant third in her last race at this same level although she was forced out three and four wide throughout most of the trip; she's drawn a little closer to the rail today so the trip should be more favourable for her which is all she should need to get a win at this tag. The #6 NOT JUST DREAMING is back in a restricted race after a try with the open $8,000 mares going long, she might be a better sprinter and if she can reproduce that third place effort that she showed at the $20,000 level she could get all the money in this dash. The #7 E COMMERCE is taking on older mares today which makes things a little tougher for her but she definitely has the sharpness edge on her rivals and Gutierrez seems to have gotten along beautifully with this filly who can be tough to handle at times.

Race #8

1st - #1 Spaghetti Mouse | 2nd - #7 Act Of God | 3rd - #3 Shacane

COMMENTARY : The #1 SPAGHETTI MOUSE was a little too sharp in his latest and hard to handle which contributed to his disappointing fifth place showing as the 3/5 favourite on B.C. Cup day. I'm sure the necessary changes have been made and he'll get back to dominating his rivals at this nine furlong journey; he should beat this group !! The #7 ACT OF GOD is a real threat and would be even tougher if he would ever leave the gate with the field (spotted them three lengths at the start) he gets a perfect post and should get a nice trip sitting just off of his stable-mate #6 WINTER WARNING. The #3 SHACANE turned in an excellent effort (not bad for an 8 year old) to win the $100,000 Redekop Classic and if the pace scenario is as competitive as it was on B.C. Cup day then he'll be a major threat in the stretch again today.

Race #9

1st - #5 C.L.'s Tiger | 2nd - #4 Dancewithbigred | 3rd - #8 Northern Link

COMMENTARY : The #5 C.L.'S TIGER shortens up to a sprint after an usually dull effort last time; he's a better horse than most of these and I think he'll show it today. The #4 DANCEWITHBIGRED has been busy this year making his eleventh start of the season and actually ran his best race of the year a couple of weeks back and if that effort resurfaces today he'll definitely be in the top three. The #8 NORTHERN LINK had a rough trip in his last (five wide first turn then three wide on the final bend) and if he can work out a decent trip from his outside draw then he has a good chance as well.

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