Mike's Race Analysis May 19, 2007
Race #1
1st - #6 Saratoga Renegade | 2nd - #1 Laurel's Gold | 3rd - #3 Vic's Pick
COMMENTARY : The #6 SARATOGA RENEGADE hails from a red-hot barn and has a rider that is going awesome as well, the works have been excellent of late so it would be no surprise to me to see her win at first asking. The #1 LAUREL'S GOLD is the obvious choice but with him drawing the rail (which has been a disadvantage at this trip) he might be vulnerable although his experience edge might pull him through at what will likely be a short price. The #3 VIC'S PICK has a nice string of works for a an outfit that sent out the only two year old winner so far this year.
Race #2
1st - #6 Bengal | 2nd - #3 Imperialist | 3rd - #7 Santino
COMMENTARY : The #6 BENGAL was sharp in his career debut as he tore off through some demanding fractions and got tired late. He should get the lead without too much urging and with a race under his belt he should be even better today. The #3 IMPERIALIST was racing against some tough opponents last fall and faring quite well so with this dip in class he should be very dangerous. The #7 SANTINO closed up smartly in the stretch to get third (just missed second) in his first try on Lasix and if the pace scenario is hot again then his chances of winning improve. STRONG TRIFECTA THREAT !!!
Race #3
1st - #8 Bold Stephan | 2nd - #5 Devilinyourheart | 3rd - #1 Clever Storm
COMMENTARY : The #8 BOLD STEPHAN should a perfect trip from his outside post and if he can repeat any one of his sprints that he turned in last year he will be very tough to beat. The #5 DEVILINYOURHEART had big plans at the beginning of the season in '06 but this guy really didn't pan out and gradually descended the claiming ladder without winning a race. He's been freshened up and working stylishly so with him starting the year off at the $8,000 price tag I think he'll be a major factor in the outcome of this dash. The #1 CLEVER STORM will go without blinkers for his '07 debut and seems to me like a fresh face that hasn't proven himself as yet and might improve on his lone start in '06.
Race #4
1st - #9 Against The Sky | 2nd - #4 Peacebethejourney | 3rd - #7 Grammasaidicould
COMMENTARY : There appears to be enough speed to help an off-the-pace mare like the #9 AGAINST THE SKY who is dropping out of a tough open $15,000 mare race into this restricted non-three for $8,000. The outside post shouldn't be a concern and I think she'll run well today. The #4 PEACEBETHEJOURNEY got into a pace battle at the non-two $8,000 and got away with it as she narrowly lasted for the victory, she's up one level and might not be so fortunate if she gets into a heated battle again. She's still very 'live' in this spot though. The #7 GRAMMASAIDICOULD only has three works on form but I like the connections so she deserves respect as well.
Race #5
1st - #6 Sultry Eyes | 2nd - #1 Built This City | 3rd - #2 Basket Of Dreams
COMMENTARY : The #6 SULTRY EYES is aggressively spotted for her '07 debut down for $5,000 and it really doesn't look like she's caught a tough field at all, there's speed in this heat and she should be in a good spot just in behind the pace-setters so I like her to give the Troy Taylor barn another winner. The #1 BUILT THIS CITY was a pace casualty going six panels three weeks ago at the $8,000 level and makes the logical drop but unfortunately finds a couple of other speed fillies in the lineup which could make things tough on her. The #2 BASKET OF DREAMS needed a few starts to get ready last year so with a race in her she should better this afternoon.
Race #6
1st - #7 Post Rio | 2nd - #8 Jennifer Jones | 3rd - #2 Mama Kay
COMMENTARY : The #7 POST RIO is dropping out a very productive heat into maiden claimer and on paper this race really doesn't look very tough at all so if she can flash a little speed I really like her chances with this group. The #8 JENNIFER JONES has been working very nicely and (sister to The Jones Boy) is well bred so she could be 'live' at first asking. CHECK THE PADDOCK AND POST PARADE !! The #2 MAMA KAY is another exiting the 'live' (Pretty Maid-Running Apache race) event and should appreciate the easier foes that are served up today.
Race #7
1st - #4 Gold Ticket | 2nd - #3 Captain T W Bly | 3rd - #1 Long Journey
COMMENTARY : I was really impressed by the debut effort of the #4 GOLD TICKET who reeled in a very stubborn Mudchute to win a maiden $25,000 grander. The company is obviously tougher today and he will get a new pilot as Mario Gutierrez ends up on the #3 CAPTAIN T W BLY (no surprise as he's the first call rider for the Taylor barn) but Valdez should suit him fine. The #3 CAPTAIN T W BLY had a rough trip in his first start this year and did very well to almost win the money so with a clear trip today he looks like the one to beat on paper. The #1 LONG JOURNEY weaved his way through a big field to almost score at this same level but I'm a little worried that pace scenario won't be as strong as it was that day which is why I've left him in the third spot. VERY CAPABLE THOUGH !!!
Race #8
1st - #7 Fancy One | 2nd - #5 Angel Ride | 3rd - #3 Open The Wine
COMMENTARY : The #7 FANCY ONE chased the pace which was reasonably quick for the level last time and it cost her late as she was nailed for second, I think she can get the lead to herself this afternoon so I really like her chances. The #5 ANGEL RIDE was fractious in the gate and took advantage of a contested pace to rally and get the runner-up spot, she gets leading rider and if she's better behaved in the gate then she might be closer to the pace. VERY LIVE AS WELL !!! The #3 OPEN THE WINE is a well-bred first timer that hasn't hooked a very tough field so if she can run a bit then she has a shot.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY PREAKNESS DAY AT HASTINGS !!!!!
