Mike's Race Analysis August 18, 2007
Race #1
1st - #1 Classic Show | 2nd - #4 P S I B Good | 3rd - #5 Western Roller
COMMENTARY : The #1 CLASSIC SHOW broke well and set the pace in his maiden victory and won with something left; I'll gamble that he shows that same keen interest away from the latch in this dash. The #4 P S I B GOOD broke his maiden in a good time against a pretty soft crew; he should get a similar trip today but I don't think he's as good as my top pick so I've left him in the second spot. The #5 WESTERN ROLLER is on a roll right now with two good performances going long, he's cutting back in distance today but as sharp as he is he still could be a factor in the late going.
Race #2
1st - #2 My Special Angel | 2nd - #4 Dancing Melody | 3rd - #1 Autograph
COMMENTARY : The #2 MY SPECIAL ANGEL had some troubles in her third place run on B.C. Cup day; she's back in with maidens and if she shows the same kind of gate speed today she'll be on the lead and will be very tough to catch. The #4 DANCING MELODY has turned in two solid efforts so far in her brief career and is a very nice filly that will break her maiden very soon. The #1 AUTOGRAPH got caught late in her first try going two turns but obviously bled as she'll be on Lasix for the first time; she's a good filly but unfortunately she's facing two stakes-placed fillies in this maiden event.
Race #3
1st - #5 Postmaster General | 2nd - #3 Royal Hudson | 3rd - #6 Black Austin
COMMENTARY : The #5 POSTMASTER GENERAL has been delivering some brilliant morning works for his connections and if he runs to them he won't get beat. The #3 ROYAL HUDSON is a well bred son of Monarchos out a great broodmare Au Printemps (best broodmare to ever come out of Hastings) that also has been training well for his debut. The #6 BLACK AUSTIN is yet another 'live' first time starter that has plenty of potential.
Race #4
1st - #6 Fire Boss | 2nd - #4 Trouble Shooter | 3rd - #5 Secret Allstar
COMMENTARY : The #6 FIRE BOSS has shown far more positional speed since teaming up with Alvarado and that led to his recent score with the non-two types; he's up one level but this really isn't all that tough of a dash so I think he can repeat. The #4 TROUBLE SHOOTER is a better horse going long but he should get a nice pace to run at and with leading rider picking the mount up that won't hurt his chances either. The #5 SECRET ALLSTAR is facing older runners after an easy score with $5,000 three year olds; he'll need to be better to get all the money again today.
Race #5
1st - #7 You'rejustlikeme | 2nd - #5 Amber Morn | 3rd - #1 I'mnaughtyandnice
COMMENTARY : The #7 YOU'REJUSTLIKEME is taking a big plunge in class for her new trainer and if she can avoid a wide trip then she'll be tough to beat. The #5 AMBER MORN wasn't a factor in her first start after the claim but she's in a better spot today. The #1 I'MNAUGHTYANDNICEset a demanding pace for her first start of the year and actually hung on gamely to finish third; she's another that is way down in price and could be tough if left alone on the head end.
Race #6
1st - #7 Lord Kaiser | 2nd - #5 My Friend Geoff | 3rd - #3 M L's Indian
COMMENTARY : The #7 LORD KAISER was flying late in his career debut and with this race likely to be run very quickly early he's got a great shot to win this afternoon. The #5 MY FRIEND GEOFF has run a winning race in both of his last two starts but just keeps getting cooked on the pace and on paper that's likely to happen again today. The #3 M L'S INDIAN chased the pace from out in the three path so it was impressive to see him lose by less than three lengths; if he gets a better trip he too can win the money.
Race #7
1st - #4 T.J. Hennessy | 2nd - #5 Meritocratic | 3rd - #6 Kingsvale
COMMENTARY : The #4 T.J. HENNESSY is in a beautiful spot dropping out of those tough open $25,000 races into this restricted non-three for $20,000; a repeat of either of his last two losses gets him the big prize with this group. The #5 MERITOCRATIC looked good in winning last time and appears to be the best of the rest and should form the second spot in the EXACTA. The #6 KINGSVALE came running on late to get second at this level taking advantage of a contested pace and looks likely to catch some of the tiring speed for the TRIACTA again this afternoon.
Race #8
1st - #7 Classic County | 2nd - #6 Precious Commodity | 3rd - #3 Aid And Abet
COMMENTARY : The #7 CLASSIC COUNTY will race on Lasix for the first time after his runner-up effort at the $8,000 tag; he's in with easier opponents and will likely win at a short price. The #6 PRECIOUS COMMODITY didn't get much of a shot in his debut and did well to rescue fifth money in a very quick heat but he must break with the field if he's going to threaten for the win. The #3 AID AND ABET is first time starter that comes from a barn that can send one out ready to rock; works are good !!
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND ENJOY YOUR AFTERNOON !!!
