Race Analysis - Friday, September 9

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: SIR HAYDEN ran into a couple of subsequent stakes winners in his debut and then scored an easy win in a good time when he came back for his second start. He has been working well enough leading up to his first try going around two turns and could be tough to handle if he can avoid a duel with UNQUIET. LORD HENRY figures to be heard from late and could pick up the pieces if an all-out duel develops. He wasn't much of a threat to Herescomlucky in the New West but Herescomelucky came back to win the B.C. Nursery by over five lengths and just got nipped in the $100,000 Jack Diamond Futurity in his latest. DEPUTY'S COMMAND is still a maiden but he finished full of run in the Jack Diamond Futurity and isn't out of line here. STRAIT OF DOVER could be the sleeper. He didn't show much after breaking poorly in his debut but he is a half to $210K stakes winner Starlite Strike and he came back with a solid work.

RACE TWO:  GOLDEN ROAR went very wide while pressing the early pace before tiring when she debuted at this level August 19 and could take a big step forward with a race under her belt. Jarvis has solid stats with second time shooters - 18 percent strike rate the past five years. CRANTINI comes out of the same race and she set the pace before giving way late. Once again there doesn't appear to be an abundance of speed and she could take them all the way if she gets away on her own. DANCEALLTHEDANCES and CALIANARA cut back to a sprint and drop into a straight claiming race. DANCEALLTHEDANCES came from well back to finish second at this level in her only sprint this year. CALIANARA shouldn't mind the shorter distance after taking the lead into the stretch and hanging on well to finish second.

RACE THREE:  REMARKABLY FREE drops in price following another solid effort and she figures to get a perfect trip from just off what should be a contested pace. She finished behind J J'S ORCHID two back but J J had things her own way and it is unlikely she will get away on her own here. EPICUREAN looked good winning her latest and is a clear threat to beat the top pick. She can also stalk and if you toss her race against the boys and her troubled fourth at this level August 6, she hasn't been worse than third at the meet. J J'S ORCHID also takes the drop and she will certainly appreciate the easier company after getting fried in a duel. Once again she has other speed to deal with, especially TAMIS STORMTROOPER, but the ones chasing her here aren't as tough and she should be able to hang around long enough to pick up a slice.

RACE FOUR:  OUT OF DODGE faded after chasing a quick pace versus tougher and will appreciate the easier company he is meeting in this bottom level race for 3-year-olds. He should be able to stalk what figures to be an honest pace and Stolzenberg has won with two of the last six she has dropped by 50 percent or more. DOG ROCK is aggressively spotted after winning a $30K optional claimer in just his third start. He owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and if all is well he should be able to make a big impact in his first try with winners. There are a few decent siblings in his family so it is a bit surprising to see him show up at this level, however. KENTUCKY CLIPPER rebounded with a better effort after two straight flops as the chalk and maybe taking the blinkers off had a lot to do with his improved performance. No surprise if he's the winner of what appears to be a wide-open event.

RACE FIVE:  PEACE BEAR has the best early speed in the field, gets in light, and could take them a long way if he breaks alertly. He went three-wide around the first turn and then couldn't hold off Declan Downs when he dropped to this level in his latest. He held on well to finish second though, and he looked pretty sharp when Marti worked him a half-mile in :45.80 seconds Sunday morning. STORY'S END comes out of the same race and he would have finished closer if he didn't have to steady hard at the three-eighths pole. He gets off the rail and could be dangerous with a clean trip. LATE NITE LARRY seems to be rounding back into form following a few dull efforts. Use him in the exotics.

RACE SIX:  MR. COLLABORATOR looks pretty solid in this $17,500 claiming race for 3-year-olds. He has four wins in his last five starts and while his Beyer Speed Figure in his latest is below his usual figures, he seems to do just as much as he has to. Once again he figures to be prominent throughout. GENTLE JOE finished second to the top pick two back and then faded after setting a wicked pace in a $50K optional race going a mile and a sixteenth. He will appreciate the easier company and the move back to a distance he hasn't been worse than third in from three starts. WHISTLER GOLD should get a nice trip from a stalking position and should be considered for the exotics. FUNNY FACE is the last horse to beat MR. COLLABORATOR and he could be dangerous if he can clear early with Dunn riding at 110 pounds.

RACE SEVEN:  SONIA'S MANE GIRL is fast but hasn't been able to carry her speed around two turns. She cuts back to an abbreviated sprint here and should be hard to catch if she leaves there running. MY DELTA DOROTHY finished second the only time she went this distance two back and she tired in her latest try in going around two turns. She doesn't seem to be as fast as the top pick but going this distance the break is critical and if she gets the jump on SONIA'S MANE GIRL she could be the winner. JUST SMILE 'N WAVE finished first in a similar race but had her number taken down for wiping out most of the field at the break. She should be right there if she can keep a straight path.