Race Analysis - Friday, September 2

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: ALLUSHA figures to move forward in her second start back and she will appreciate the easier company she is facing with the drop in class. The past five years her trainer has a 15 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff. LOVE N PEACE altered her style but faded badly after showing decent speed in her first start back following a layoff. She should move forward with a race under her belt and could make some noise if Espitia can get her to settle early like she did in her first two starts. FOXY DELTA has had a couple of solid works while getting ready for her first start since May 8 and notice the strong recent stats Henson has with horses coming back from this type of layoff. The $6.24 ROI in the category is especially intriguing.

RACE TWO: CLEVER MOMENT set an honest pace and held on reasonably well with Williams riding at a feathery weight in his latest. Once again he gets in light and could take them all the way if he breaks alertly from his inside post. SAGEHILL'S STORM may have bounced following a solid effort in his previous start and could rebound if he doesn't get caught up in a duel with the top pick. He forced the issue while going three-wide in his latest but he can stalk and could pick up the pieces if the speed falls apart. PRESIDENTS DAY finished in front of SAGEHILL'S STORM last time but he had the perfect trip from along the rail. He could be ready for a big effort in his third straight route, though.

RACE THREE: OUR COCO BEANS figures to move forward in her second straight route and could make amends for her loss as the chalk in her latest when she set a slow pace and couldn't hold off the late charge by Tick Me Off. There appears to be more speed here but she has won from a stalking position and the leading rider should be able to work out a trip. SHELBYANN has been off since June 17 but she has been working well enough for her return and is dropping to a new low. She could make some noise as a fresh horse. MIA DOLCE ran an improved race in her latest sprint and she owns the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance. Use her in the exotics along with SONGSROYALDIAMOND who also showed signs of life in her latest sprint.

RACE FOUR: Not sure what excuse MY DELTA DOROTHY had when she flopped as the chalk two back but she ran a much better race in her latest and looks like the one to beat if she runs back to her two races at this level and distance in July. She also gets in with a feather and could be tough to catch if she breaks on top. DORY had four solid works in the month of August and could be dangerous coming off the bench. These appear to be a lot easier than she faced in her first couple of starts and from the looks of her works she appears primed for a big effort. TRIBUNAL CROWN seems to be headed in a positive direction and the past five years her trainer has a 25 percent strike rate when she runs them back in a week or less. She hung a bit in her latest but she broke from the outside post and she moves to the rail where she should save some valuable ground.

RACE FIVE: EMBANKMENT might not have cared for the sloppy conditions when she finished third as the heavy chalk in her latest and could make amends if it stays dry. She easily has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance and her trainer has solid stats when he brings them back in this time period - 16 percent the past five years with horses coming back between 31 - 60 days. DE VILBISS looked good winning her latest sprint and it is easy to toss her only try at the distance because she was overmatched when she tried allowance horses. She fits better with these and rates a look at what should be a decent price. NASCOPIE ran an improved race in her latest sprint and could be rounding into form. At least we know she can go this far.

RACE SIX: MATCHABULL ran a decent race when he went around three turns for the first time in the B.C. Cup Stellar's Jay and then couldn't keep up when he cut back to a sprint in his latest. He has speed, drew the rail, and could be dangerous if he breaks alertly in a race where it is hard to separate them. PATZCUARO will appreciate the easier company after tackling some tough ones in the Richmond Derby Trial. Blinkers come off for the first time and he could do some damage from a stalking position. TAI SHAN is stepping up but he likes to win races and he ran well in both of his tries at the distance. He had a decent interim move following his solid second behind a runaway winner and he could pick up the pieces with plenty of suspect speed in the field. MINSTREL'S TIME figures to improve going a middle distance and has worked smartly following his win in a $30K optional maiden claiming sprint July 22.

RACE SEVEN: AMALGAMATION didn't break that sharply and after making what appeared to be a threatening move while going wide she understandably tired when she faced winners for the first time. She is by Lemon Drop Kid so she should handle a middle distance and over the past five years her trainer has a 12 percent strike rate with horses stretching out for the first time. She has decent speed and could be dangerous if she leaves there running. FISHERS CATCH is an obvious contender off her solid effort in his first try at a middle distance in her latest. BEAUTY AND VICTORY comes out of the same race and she also made a strong late move to finish third. Not sure if they early pace will be as quick, however.