Race Analysis - Sunday, July 31

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: DANCING DALIA was starting to pick up horses on her own but stalled when a horse was backing up in front of her just past the three-eighths pole in a similar race July 16. There should be an honest enough pace for her to work with and she might be able to get up in time with a clean trip. LAURA'S JOURNEY comes out of the same race where forced issue the whole way and held on well to finish second. She could move forward in her third straight route. COSTA MARTA looked pretty sharp in her four-furlong over July 24 and could take them a long way if she breaks alertly. Hard to love her on top with 26 starts and just a single win but she could hang around long enough to pick up a slice.

RACE TWO: WITH COUNCIL got off to a poor start and then made a strong late move to get up for second when he debuted in a maiden special weight race July 17. He should be tough to handle if he leaves there running for a trainer that has solid stats with second time starters. He is out of a Grade 3 winner and two of his three siblings to race are winners so the breeding is there. J J'S GYPSY chased a very fast pace before tiring late in the same race and could be tough to catch if he breaks alertly from his inside post. Al three of his siblings are winners and two of them are by the same sire. THIMBLE is a filly facing males but she owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and she might not have been eligible for this race if she didn't have to steady at the quarter-pole in her latest.

RACE THREE: COLONEL COURTNEY goes for his third in a row and second at this level. The race should set up perfectly for him and once again he figures to be heard from late. EL CUGAT should also appreciate what figures to be a hotly contested pace and could easily get up in time if things fall his way. He is stepping up after being claimed but he has plenty of back class and his new trainer, who doesn't halter many, has won with two of the last eight she has brought back the first time. NOW ACT and LOGANDALE figure to be winging it early and it probably depends on which one breaks on top. NOW ACT, who was a vet scratch July 17 but comes out of a live barn, is dropping in class and is the more likely candidate to stick around to pick up a slice.

RACE FOUR: BOONE'S SHADOW drops to a logical spot after a couple of tries with pricier nonwinners of three and he should appreciate the easier company. He's been off for almost a month but he had a solid interim work July 24 and his trainer is still winning races at an impressive clip. AIRAFFAIR is still eligible for a nonwinners of two but he almost took them the whole way in his latest at this level and once again figures to be involved right from the start. He hasn't made it the whole way in a two-turn sprint but he has been in the tri in four of five races at the distance and at the very least he should be part of any exotics ticket. MOBIL SUPREME should get a stalking trip from his inside post and should be considered for the exotics. AIMING FOR GLORY might not have cared for the sloppy conditions last time and is another exotics possibility.

RACE FIVE: RED MOLLY has enough speed to easily clear early and she will appreciate the easier company with the drop into a cheaper nonwinners of three. She should be gone if she breaks alertly. ALITAX had a wide trip when she dropped to this level in her latest and could make some noise if Hamel can keep her within striking distance of the top pick. It is also hard to ignore the strong trainer-jockey stats showing. GOLDEN RATIO has some tactical speed, gets in light and should be considered for the exotics. WESTERN DELTA could pass some of the horses that try to keep up with RED MOLLY early. She could help spice up the exotics.

RACE SIX: TAMARINDA set wicked fractions and still held on well to finish third when she jumped up to this level in her latest. She shouldn't have to go as fast here and could be tough to get past if Fuentes can get her to settle early. INCLUDE THE GRAND caught the top pick last time and it is hard to say where that race came from after she had been such a dull horse all year. She is more than capable of stringing solid races together, however and it shouldn't surprise anyone if she comes back with another big effort for a trainer that is having a strong meet. WE ARE ONE is eligible to move forward in her second start back following a short break. She also attracts the leading rider who has put up good numbers riding for Clyde the past couple of years.

RACE SEVEN: AUDZEEZEE ran well while facing stakes horses in her two tries going around three turns and should have an honest pace to work with here. She is also going to find these a lot easier than nine-time winner Dashing Daisy who she couldn’t keep up to in her latest sprint. WE'REGOODTOGO set an honest pace and held on well to finish second when she stretched out for the first time in a similar race July 2. It would have been nice to see her come back a little sooner but she had a solid six-furlong interim move July 24 and should be ready to go. She may have to deal with other speed in the way of DE VILBISS who is stretching out for the first time and drew the rail. JEZEBELLE made a strong move to finish a nose behind WE'REGOODTOGO in her latest and is a real threat to win what appears to be a competitive event.

RACE EIGHT: ELUSIVE INTENTIONS had to steady a couple of times while trying to get through along the rail and was still able to win when she stretched out to this distance in her second start this year. She could take a big step forward in the third start of her current form cycle and she probably just needs to repeat her solid performance to win this. The only concern is that she is a bounce candidate after posting her career best Beyer Speed Figure. BESPOKE rallied to finish third in her latest sprint and she has won going this far so she shouldn't mind the added distance. Plus, since 2008 her trainer has a 27 percent strike rate with horses going from a sprint to a route. JUMP TO IT has been right there in her last four races which includes three straight at the distance. Hard to say what kind of trip she is going to get from her outside post, however.