Race Analysis - Sunday, July 24

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: EL CIERVO may have tipped her hand with a bullet three-furlong move in :35.40 seconds July 6 and another sharp move out of the gate four days later. One of her two siblings won at two and over the past five years her trainer has a 26 percent strike rate with babies making their first start. TERESAMARIA chased a subsequent stakes winner home in her debut and finished a nose behind a horse that came back to win a maiden special weight race in his next start. Her work pattern since she ran isn't very encouraging, however. LASTING showed a lot of improvement in her second start and could be ready for a peak effort for a trainer that does a good job with her babies. All three of her siblings to race are winners including 2-year-old winner Spice Trader.

RACE TWO:  QUIET TAP finished a solid second the first time she tried a middle distance and she also ran a decent race when he tried winners in his latest. She is back with maidens and anything close to either of her two races at the distance should be good enough to win. BEAUTY AND VICTORY has been part of the tri in five of her eight starts and also both times he went around three turns. She was pretty far behind Quiet Tap in a similar race July 3 and looks a lot better underneath than on top. STRAWBERRY ISLAND is the first foal out of a mare that won a couple of routes and it wouldn't be surprising to see her take a big step forward in her first try at a middle distance. She got off to a poor start in her latest sprint and could be dangerous if she leaves there running with Williams taking the call at a feathery 109 pounds.

RACE THREE:  SILVER RULER understandably tired after dueling while going three wide going longer in his latest and should be tough to handle with the move back to a sprint. He easily has the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance and all he probably needs is a clean trip. FLAMING SEVEN has been right there in all of his races over fast tracks this year and he is coming off of a solid second at this level. He chased a pretty quick pace in his latest and could be the one they have to run down if he breaks alertly. WESTERLY WIND didn't get off to a great start and then ended up going pretty wide going down the backstretch and heading into the second turn in a slightly shorter race at this level July 10. He could make some noise with a better trip.

RACE FOUR: HAMPTON WICK chased a fast pace while going three-wide around both turns in his latest and should be able save some ground leaving from the rail. There is other speed in the field but he has won from a stalking position and he should get first crack at speed that doesn't figure to last. SNOW MOON edged the top pick last time but he moves to the outside post and the turn comes up pretty quickly at this distance so there is a good chance he'll get hung out to dry. DUELLING PISTOL probably wants more distance but the race could set up nicely for him and he could get up in time to pick up at least a slice. Maybe more if things fall his way. ALYBYE ON FIRE could hang around a lot longer in his second straight two-turn sprint. Use him in the exotics at what should be a decent price.

RACE FIVE:  RUNAWAY REGGIE looks like a standout in this bottom level maiden race. The Beyer Speed Figures he has earned in all three of his starts are better than any of his rivals have ever posted and he is dropping to a new low for trainer that has spotted them well all year. SANTA FE LINE ran a much improved race when he dropped to this level and should move forward in his second start following a two-month layoff. He also moves inside where he won't have to work as hard to get involved in the race early. PAY DADDY has flopped as the chalk in his last two starts here and he probably isn't going to beat the top pick. Nonetheless, he has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post and could be part of the exotics if he breaks alertly.

RACE SIX:  HANAKKUH should destroy this field if she runs to the form she displayed on dirt in Southern California but there are some obvious concerns with a horse that was claimed for $12,500 at Santa Anita in March and shows up in a $5,000 claiming race at Hastings in late July. Nonetheless, she has worked well since arriving here and over the past five years her trainer has a 31 percent strike rate when he drops them by 50 percent or more. AMAZING ROSE took the plunge and won at this level in her latest and a similar effort should at least see her round out the exacta. Hard not to notice Alvarado abandons her for the top pick, however. CHER'S NO ANGEL was an easy winner of her only start at two and has worked well enough leading up to her first start as a 3-year-old. Her trainer does a good job with his small stable and he has won with three of the last five horses he has brought back from layoffs of 180 days or more.

RACE SEVEN: CHEROKEE TEAR had his winning streak snapped when he had to alter his course and lost by a nose to a tough one at this level and distance July 2 and once again he should have an honest pace to work with. He could get up in time with a clean trip. SEMINOLE BRAVE was right there in the same race and he did all the hard work early dueling with the eventual winner. He could be tough to get past if he can clear early. BONBONI might have something to say about that he and is coming off of a sharp win where he earned his career best Beyer Speed Figure. His only loss at the meet was to the top pick in his previous start and it is encouraging to see Henson reach in and take him back after losing him for $12,500 three back.

RACE EIGHT:  AMALGAMATION has been working pretty strongly for a horse debuting at this level and over the past five years her trainer has a 24 percent strike rate with first time starters, although the number does drop to 14 percent when they are running in maiden claiming races. Her sire is below average as a debut sire but she is the first foal out of a mare that won as a 2-year-old so there is some win-early breeding. DANNY'S CHANT showed more speed and ran a much-improved race in her latest and could be dangerous if she breaks alertly from her inside post. ZETTABYTE could be the sleeper. She broke poorly and then was immediately pulled up by Hamel when she debuted for $10,000 May 1. She has worked well since and it is encouraging to see Hamel stick with her despite the poor start to her career.