Race Analysis - Sunday, July 17

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: I'M A VIXEN TOO showed more speed and ran a much-improved race when she dropped to this level in her latest. There isn't a lot of other speed in the field and she could be dangerous if she can clear early. KYRIA has had her fair share of chances but she is dropping and the last time she ran at this level she lost by a neck. FORTHELOVEOFIT had a rough trip two back and then had a wide trip from an outside post in her latest. She moves to the rail and could make some noise with a clean trip. MY DELTA DOROTHY gets in light and should appreciate the move back to a sprint after setting the pace before tiring in her first attempt at a route.

RACE TWO:  EXCLUSIVE CASH got away poorly and then made a huge move to win a $10K maiden race in her first start this year and could take a big step forward with a race behind her. She came back with a solid five-furlong move July 10 and might be good enough to handle winners first time. Hoverson sticks with MASS FLORA but no complaints with Hamel taking the call. ICECAP has been right there in her last two sprints and she should have an honest enough pace to work with. She finished two lengths clear of MASS FLORA last time and both appear to be capable of winning this. It probably depends on how the track is playing. If it is favoring speed MASS FLORA could have the edge from a stalking position. DE VILBISS appears to be improving each time she runs and could be dangerous if she clears early. She scratched out of a tougher spot on Friday which isn't surprising because her trainer has spotted them realistically his whole career.

RACE THREE:  ST LIAMS HALO has been an impressive winner in all three of his races here and though the margins were small Gutierrez appeared to have a lot more horse each time. He should also be able to control the tempo right from the start. CREW LEADER rallied but never looked like he was going to get to ST LIAMS HALO in the Lieutenant Governors'. He was quick enough to go 6 1/1 furlongs in 1:15 and change and earn a 95 Beyer Speed Figure so maybe Hoverson will try and put him into the race right from the start. If not he is going to have a hard time getting past the top pick. SENOR ROJO had a rough time in the Lieutenant Governors' and figures to have a clean trip from his outside post with only five horses in the field. He has shown tactical speed in the past and shouldn't be too far behind the top two early.

RACE FOUR:  LASTING SPICE is back with the girls after a decent effort with a tough group of $12,500 males June 17. She has won two of her three starts at the distance and her only loss came in her latest. She is also reunited with Gutierrez who was aboard for her easy win in her final start of 2010. She will have to deal with other speed but she doesn't necessarily need the lead to win. AUDZEEZEE ran well in both of her tries going this far with stakes company and there should be an honest pace for her to work with. She was claimed out of her last race by Leaney who over the past five years has an 18 percent strike rate and a positive ROI when she runs them back the first time. DIVA BALLERINA came back with a bullet four-furlong move following her solid second behind the lone speed at this level June 24. She hasn't missed the board in six races going this far and should be part of any exotics ticket.

RACE FIVE:  JUMP TO IT just missed to Diva Ballerina - see the fourth race - two back and then scored an impressive win over easier in her latest. She appears to be an improved horse of late and should stand the small jump in class. She has the kind of tactical speed that wins a lot of races here and she also has a solid 1-1-1 record from three starts at the distance. CHILECITO could be coming up to a big effort in her third start following a short layoff. She pressed the pace and held on well in her latest and she figures to get a nice trip from just off of suspect speed. LAND OF SILVER will need some breaks along the way in this full field but there are a couple of sprinters stretching out so there should be an honest pace for her to work with. She could get up in time if things fall her Way.

RACE SIX:  HILLINGDON wasn't going to threaten Claresmiezie in the Lassie last Saturday so her connections may have been fortunate that she was scratched at the gate and she gets to face a lot easier here. She had a solid half-mile move from the gate last Sunday and if she runs to the potential she showed in her troubled debut she could win what appears to be a wide-open event. CONO SUR showed good speed when he debuted going 3 1/2 furlongs June 25 and came back with two solid five-furlong works. He appears to be primed for a big effort in his first try in a two-turn sprint. GABIGOTHERWAY has worked well enough and she is a half a few decent sprinters including $310K Geniver who won eight races and Kalua On the Rocks who earned $145K while also winning eight sprints. MONAHEE is the first foal out of a mare that ranks as one of the best to ever run at Hastings but like his mom, he might need some seasoning.

RACE SEVEN: VIMANA takes the plunge and it is encouraging to see Hamel accept the call from a trainer he has won at a high rate with the past two years. Blinkers are coming off and it wouldn't be surprising to see Hamel ease him off of what figures to be a lively pace. The main speed is FULL TIME DUKE who is the one they will probably have to run down. He set honest fractions in his last two sprints and he just about made it the whole way both times. Today could be the day he keeps going. DONT YOU HONEY ME chased but couldn't quite catch FULL TIME DUKE in his latest and with other possible speed in the field he could get a perfect trip from a stalking position. GENERAL CUSTER got away poorly in his debut and takes a big drop for a trainer that has solid stats with second time starters. Blinkers go on and it wouldn't be surprising if he showed a lot more than he did in his debut.

RACE EIGHT: COLONEL COURTNEY has plenty of back class so he should be able to handle the jump following a sharp win in his latest. He also figures to get a similar trip from not too far off of what could be a lively battle up front. ABERFELDIE looked good winning at this level from a stalking position two back and then tired after forcing an honest pace in his latest. He could be dangerous if Hoverson can convince him to try and stalk again. NOW ACT looks like the best speed but will have to be sent pretty hard from his outside post. He is also going to have to deal with a very sharp and fast BATTLE OF HASTINGS who has won his last two abbreviated sprints and will be leaving from the rail.