Race Analysis - Wednesday, August 31

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE: ROCKET ROAN drops to a new low and anything close to just about any of his races would likely win this. He has been off since he finished third to a couple of next-out winners in a conditional allowance race July 10 and Clyde has solid stats when she brings them back in this time period - 21 percent the past five years. HE FLIES A BANNER will appreciate the much easier company after tackling Pop Artist who has won four races at the meet for $25K. He has had two sharp works leading into this and with his good speed he could take them a long way if he breaks alertly. TEXAS BUCCANEER had a rough trip when he finished third as the favorite at this level in his latest and could make amends if an early duel develops and he stays out of trouble.

RACE TWO:  TWOBIT'N BILLIE looks like the main speed and should be able to take them all the way if she breaks sharply. She comes off a strong effort where she chased a quick pace and just about got there. She figures to be the one they have to catch here and she shouldn't have to work very hard to make the lead. EPICUREAN beat her earlier in the year under a similar scenario but she appears to have tailed off somewhat and "Billie" seems to be on top of her game. No surprise if she rebounds here but she is probably going to be a low price so we are going to try and beat her. QUICKENS rallied to edge next-out winner Tick Me Off and could get up in time to pick up a slice.

RACE THREE: HER TIME TO SHINE is the lone 3-year-old in the field and could have the most upside potential. She cuts back to a sprint after winning a nonwinners of two $5K race from a tough post and she won't mind the move back to a sprint. Taylor also has solid stats with horses going from a route to a sprint - 26 percent the last five years. INDY BEAUTY fade badly in her latest but this is a much easier group and the last time she ran in a conditional claimer she was an easy winner. There is other speed to her inside but if she clears early she could be gone. ANNADU has some speed but is versatile and should get a nice trip from just off INDY BEAUTY. She hung a bit in her latest route and should appreciate the move back to a sprint.

RACE FOUR:  NINE O'CLOCK GUN was in a perfect spot behind a hotly contested pace but flattened out as the chalk in a $10K claiming race. He seems to do his best running when he's on the lead and with the 50 percent drop in price he might be able to clear early here. If he does he could be gone. INVINCIPLE EAGLE won the five-horse duel but then couldn't hold off Pay Daddy who trailed the field early and was set up perfectly. He did finish over four-lengths clear of the third horse and it is encouraging to see Hamel keep the faith. TRAVELLING LEGACY flashed good speed and held on well when he debuted for $10K and had a rough trip in his second start. He's been freshened for this and his solid set of works hint that he could come back running. GOODY FOUR FEET probably wants more distance but he should be heard from late. Use him in the exotics.

RACE FIVE: LOVE LOGIC adds blinkers for a trainer that has an excellent ROI when she makes the equipment change and the lightly raced filly may have tipped her hand with a sharp six-furlong move in 1:13.40 August 25. She also gets in light and could be dangerous if she can clear early. EMBANKMENT ran a solid race when she tried winners for the first time and while she has a better record going longer most of her sprints were against much tougher. She worked a sharp half-mile last Thursday and could be live coming off a short layoff. COUNTESS ISADORA deserves to be favored off her win at this level August 12 and it shouldn't surprise anyone of she repeats with Hamel retaining the mount. FUN AGAIN looked good beating bottom-level maidens and came back with a solid five-furlong work August 24. Use her in the exotics in a race where contention appears to run deep.

RACE SIX: BEAREMPIRE towers over this field of $12,500 claimers and if he comes out of the gate with the rest of the field he will be tough to handle. That is a big if but the drop makes sense because of the many times he has dwelt. He came out a little better the last time he ran to finish third behind one of the top stakes horses here and a similar effort easily wins this. He has been away for a while but the five-furlong move in :59.60 seconds August 16 is a good sign he's ready for a strong effort coming off the bench. INDIAN LOVE forced the pace from the along the rail and gave way late to JOY OF THE LORD. He might be better off sitting just off the speed and could reverse the decision with a stalking trip. JOY OF THE LORD ran a big race to beat INDIAN LOVE while going three-wide most of the way in his latest. He is capable of putting races together but he is also a bounce candidate following his improved performance.

RACE SEVEN: P. S. TOUCH DOWN should be tough to handle with the move into a conditional race after another good effort in the B.C. Cup Distaff. She may have bounced in the Strawberry Morn but most of her other races going around three turns easily wins this. She should also get a nice stalking trip behind what figures to be a contested pace. WE'REGOODTOGO had a pretty easy time of it while scoring a front-running win in a similar race but the shape of this race figures to be completely different. She set rapid fractions in her first try going this far and held on well in her previous start, though. Once again she gets in light and will be able to make use of her good speed leaving from the inside post. JEZEBELLE was unsettled early in the same race WE'REGOODTOGO exits and could make some noise from off the pace if Hoverson can get her to relax.

RACE EIGHT: MEAUX POWER made as strong late move in his latest sprint and he should appreciate the move to a distance he has compiled a solid 4-0-3 record from seven starts. He is also making his third start following a layoff and he could be ready for a peak effort. Not sure how fast they will be going up front but he has shown tactical speed in the past and if Dunn can keep him in close range he should be able to wear them down late. RALLYING CRY will likely be favored and is clearly the horse to beat. He lost by a nose as the heavy chalk in a similar race and the horse that beat him came back to finish a good third in an $8K starter marathon. At the least he should be part of any exotics ticket. EVALUATE has speed, drew the rail, and could be dangerous if he gets away on his own.