Race Analysis - Sunday, April 24

By Randy Goulding

RACE ONE:  HURRY ON HOME didn't make much of an impact when he ran against a tough field of 3-year-olds here opening day and he should appreciate the move into a straight claiming race for the first time. He can stalk what figures to be a hotly contested pace and with a race under his belt he may be able to wear them down late. TIMEFORACOLDONE has a strong set of works showing and he has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post. McCarthy can have them ready to go coming off of this type of layoff - 20 percent the last five years with horses coming back in 180 days or more - and the leading rider here last year is attracted. THE PHENOM won at Fairplex so he should be fine here and he'll appreciate the class relief after getting waxed in a $40K starter race at Golden Gate April 3. He looks like the one they'll have to catch and being racing fit it wouldn't be surprising to see him take them a long way.

RACE TWO:  COATLICUE runs well fresh and has been working like she's ready for another good effort coming off the bench. She comes out of a barn that does well with horses coming off long layoffs and she gets some weight off with Williams taking the call. She also has decent speed and figures to be forwardly placed in a race where they probably won't be going all that fast up front. CALL ME JEWEL looked sharp in her five-furlong move April 15 and the only knock is her lack of speed. She just missed to the top pick two back but maybe losing the blinkers will move her up enough to turn the tables. ME AND I drops back into a conditional race for the first time since she got her non-winners of two and it wouldn't be a surprise if she was good enough to win what appears to be a wide-open event.

RACE THREE:  SOULSHINE BREW was squeezed back at the start and probably didn't like being stuck on the rail behind horses in her latest at Turf Paradise. She has the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and has had time to regroup. She might be worth a look at what should be a decent price. LUCK OF THE DEVIL forced an honest pace before tiring late in her first race this year and could move forward in her second start back. She will also appreciate the drop in class. MOBIL SUPREME has been knocking on this door for a while now and if she runs to her solid six-furlong work April 16 she just might get in. She almost made it through in her last two sprints at this level and there is enough speed to set her up.

RACE FOUR:  PERFECT HOSTESS came back with two solid efforts following a lengthy layoff and her latest was a key race with the winner coming right back to win a $20K claimer at Golden Gate Thursday. The third place horse earned a 74 Beyer Speed Figure for her win in an $8K claimer April 17. There are some obvious issues with a horse that took that much time off but she improved her Beyer figure in her second start back and if she keeps moving forward she'll be tough to handle. TAMARINDA runs well fresh - a win in 2008 and seconds the past two years while facing tougher. She is a year older at seven so she may have lost a step or two, but she has been working decently and it wouldn't be surprising if she came back running. TWOBIT'N BILLIE has only been out of the tri once in seven tries sprinting. Her five-furlong move on April 16 was the second best of 56 at the distance so she appears to be ready for another good effort.

RACE FIVE:  LADY SAFFRON came close to winning for this price in her second start and she will appreciate being back with maidens after trying tougher in the Sadie Diamond Futurity. She is out of a mare that won four stakes races so there could be some potential here. A bullet fired working out of the gate April 21 and the past five years her trainer has a 14 percent strike race with horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or more. FEI YAN finished behind the top pick when she was sent off as the 1/2 favorite last year but it is possible she likes a dry track better than a wet one and she has certainly been working well enough this spring. She also gets in light with Dunn taking the call at 107 pounds. VICTORY'S SUITE just missed in both of her races going 3 1/2 furlongs and her six-furlong move in 1:14.60 April 6 tells she'll be able to handle a two-turn sprint. Not sure what kind of trip she'll get from her outside post, though.

RACE SIX:  WOOMBROOM EXPRESS has been firing bullets as usual and if he breaks alertly they are going to have a hard time catching him. He scratched out of the George Royal Stakes on Friday to run here and there isn’t much doubt the competition is a lot easier. SEMINOLE BRAVE has had a couple of sharp works - particular his six-furlong move in 1:12.80 April 13 - and could be ready for a big effort coming off the bench. Similar to the top pick, he is a former stakes winner that should appreciate beginning a new season at a reduced level. He has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post and he also runs well fresh - he posted a 93 Beyer Speed Figure coming off the bench in 2009. HEAVENLY CHORUS really shortened his stride in the stretch in his last start in New Orleans but he did get away poorly in the race and he has worked well since arriving here. He won coming off of a long layoff in Dec. so we know he can fire fresh.

RACE SEVEN:  EVALUATE has a solid set of works showing and he runs well fresh. He came off of a long layoff to win for the same rider-trainer combo last August and he appears to be primed for another strong effort. ELUSIVE WAYS closed out 2010 with a win over conditional claimers and has worked decently while preparing for his first start of the year. His outside post is no bargain but he has good speed and Perez may be able to put him on the lead. ASNAAN easily won his last two at Portland Meadows and the latest turned into a key race when the second and fourth place finishers came back to win $2,500 claiming races. These figure to be tougher but he certainly isn't out of his element and anything out of this barn gets our respect.